This morning Pakistan time, General Pervez Musharraf resigned from the armed forces, ending his 46-year military career. Tomorrow, he will take the presidential oath for another 5-year term as a civilian and emergency rule could be lifted.

Musharraf, lasting longer than most – myself included – expected, is teetering through what he describes as the third phase of his transition to civilian rule. But he faces an enormous set of challenges and a number of wild cards that increase his and Pakistan’s precariousness.

MUSHARRAF DOES IT HIS WAY

“And now, the end is near, and so I face, the final curtain.
My friend, I’ll say it clear,
I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain.…
Yes, there were times, I’m sure you knew,
When I bit off, more than I could chew.
But through it all, when there was doubt,
I ate it up, and spit it out.
I faced it all, and I stood tall,
and did it my way….
The record shows, I took the blows —
And did it my way!
I did it my way.”
- Frank Sinatra, “My Way”

Musharraf’s resignation from the army isn’t a concession to his opponents or foreign governments; rather, he’s following through on his desired course of political transition. The emergency, as I’ve argued before, is a means for Musharraf to secure a political transition on his own terms.

As early as November 15, Musharraf said that he’d shed his uniform by the end of the month. Resignation from the army wasn’t much of an issue. Musharraf made sure that loyalists would fill positions as army chief, chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, ISI director general, and corps commanders.

Essentially, the issue was presidential power. Musharraf wanted to ensure that once the uniform was removed, he’d be assured not just the presidency, but the presidency whose powers he vastly increased through the Legal Framework Ordinance. These powers are critical for him to continue military-led nation-building. Musharraf, as William Millam — among others — has noted, feigns himself to be indispensable for Pakistan’s progress. In his farewell address to the military today, Musharraf referred to the army as the “savior of Pakistan,” and the guardian of its security and progress.

Musharraf has reasonable backing from the armed forces; his real obstacles are a functional judiciary, aggressive media, and a viable parliament. This trio would create greater scrutiny and oversight over his activities.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM MAY

It is the media coverage of the first attempt to depose Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry that brought Musharraf’s regime to one of its weakest points ever earlier this year. Musharraf suspended Chaudhry in March of this year — a first in Pakistan — on dubious charges. A movement to restore Chaudhry to office picked up, with the chief justice making visits to major Pakistani cities. The government thwarted his attempt to reach Karachi on May 12 and its coalition party, the militant Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), led a brutal day of street violence broadcast live on television in which dozens were killed. Musharraf stayed out of the public light for days, appearing a week later in a long, difficult interview with Talat Hussain of Aaj Television, whose program the government has recently forced off air. The experience of that week is something Musharraf would not like to repeat.

As a result, he sought to curb judicial checks on executive power, hammered the independent press, and is working to shape a hung parliament that has little chance of repealing constitutional amendments vastly empowering the president.

MUSHARRAF, NAWAZ AND BENAZIR: A REVERSAL OF FATES

Musharraf’s loss of legitimacy has left him with strong-arm tactics and political manipulation. It is an ironic twist of fate.

In 1999, Pakistanis were fed up with Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto – many accepted Musharraf with open arms. Musharraf was seen as saving Pakistan from Sharif, who increased his prime ministerial powers, attacked the judiciary, and waged war on the press.

Eight years later, their political fortunes have reversed. Both, especially Sharif, are more popular than Musharraf, who now looks much like the man he overthrew.

The reversal of fates is part of the deleterious cycle of alternation between civilian and military rule that has stunted Pakistan’s growth.

It could have been different for Musharraf, who very much has the memory of Ayub Khan and others in the back of his mind. He’s very much wanted a smooth transition to qualified civilian rule with lasting reforms.

But, like many previous Pakistani rulers, Musharraf squandered public support, abused executive power, and failed to establish institutional change that will outlive him. Based on historical precedent, the odds are the baby will go with the bathwater.

Musharraf missed opportunities to transition politically with institutional and popular support. And he is unlikely to ever gain those back.

HOLLOW CIVILIAN BASE

The utility of Musharraf’s corporatism has declined considerably. Segments of Pakistan have benefited from his economic reforms, but the middle and lower classes are increasingly strained by inflation and disdain the free reign given to the “land mafia” and the Karachi Stock Exchange’s insider traders.

The rich-poor divide is growing. At the far end of Karachi, a seven star hotel is being built along with many other Dubai-style projects. But away from the rising fantasy land, in the heart of the city, its majority deals with immense congestion, infrastructural decay, poverty, pollution, violent crime, and daily blackouts. These problems have been exacerbated by relinquishing the city to the MQM.

Pakistan’s economic growth under Musharraf has been considerable. But its agricultural sector and textile industry – the big employers and exporters – have suffered from benign neglect. The textile industry has lost market share to China, India, and Bangladesh. The reason isn’t quality of goods, but pricing. Industrialists believe their competitive disadvantage can be relieved through targeted subsidies.

Macro-level structural reform and privatization have created active banking and telecom sectors and a marked growth of services industries. But Pakistan is a country where roughly 2/3 of the population is below the poverty line and a majority is illiterate. Little has been done to catalyze manufacturing growth – despite the country’s large labor pool.

Politically, Musharraf has surrounded himself with a mix of rootless technocrats, clowns, and thugs.

His recent prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, was brought in on loan from Citigroup. Aziz, an effective economic manager, failed to build a popular base. As a result of this (and possibly machinations by the Chaudhry cousins), he won’t be running in the upcoming elections and could possibly move back to the U.S.

Ahmed Raza Kasuri, a legal aide to Musharraf, has appeared on national television several times cursing like Andrew Dice Clay. Wasi Zafar, the previous law minister, came on the most watched public affairs program and vigorously scratched his groin area while knowingly in the camera shot. His claim to fame, however, is an appearance on Voice of America in which he threatened to harm another panelist.

Musharraf’s main political allies, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Pervaiz Elahi, have little popular appeal beyond their mid-sized city of Gujrat. Shujaat heads the Musharraf allied PML-Q party, but he is an atrocious public speaker and a recipient of widespread ridicule. Musharraf could supplant them with Mian Azhar, the popular Lahori who preceded Shujaat as PML-Q head.

A key member of Musharraf’s political coalition is the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), led by Altaf Hussain, currently in exile in London. The MQM led a violent wave of violence in Karachi in the late 1980s and early 90s and still effectively holds the city at gunpoint. They are believed to run the prolific mobile phone snatching network that not only nets dozens of phones daily, but also all too often kills those who don’t give up their phones immediately. It’s a deadly mix of identity politics, illicit trade, and youthful rage. The MQM, however, serves as a check on the PPP’s presence in Sindh.

THE NAWAZ AND BENAZIR FACTORS

As a civilian, Musharraf will become increasingly dependent on a popular base. But the political party he assembled is one of turncoats and technocrats. Its very existence is challenged by the return of Nawaz Sharif, whose party it broke off from. While Sharif is originally the political child of Pakistan’s military and intelligence services, his popular appeal – particularly in Lahore and elsewhere in urban Punjab – is significant. He and his brother, more than anyone in Musharraf’s camp, have the political weight to lead a mass political party.

Musharraf’s deal making with Benazir, at Washington’s urging, was incomplete in its exclusion of Sharif. Nawaz was recalcitrant, but any meaningful effort toward national reconciliation in Pakistan has to include the military and heads of the two major political parties. Why? Because those left out always play the role of spoiler. And the two paired together collude against the one. Years later, the roles are switched, but the country’s challenges remain.

Moreover, resting the nation’s stability on a deal with Benazir Bhutto — of all people — is naive and misguided. If she ascends to the premiership — most likely through a weak coalition with the PML-Q and MQM — she is almost certain to challenge Musharraf head-on. Benazir has no aspirations to become Musharraf’s Shaukat Aziz; she will fight to create a viable premiership and reduce Musharraf’s presidential powers. Once she has a foot in the door, there’s no telling what she’ll do.

Vis-a-vis the major power brokers, Musharraf — at the moment — has no real challengers. Bhutto’s push will occur after the elections. Sharif hasn’t had enough time to field a large number of candidates for the elections, though PML-Qrs can defect to his side once the new parliament comes in. But Musharraf’s PML-Q has been in election-mode for quite some time and this year’s record-high budget is designed to earn the ruling party public favor.

ENTER KAYANI

There is, however, a major wild card in the form of Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, the new army chief of staff.

Kayani brings a fresh, well-regarded face to the command of Pakistan’s army. Indeed, much weight has been put on the shoulders of this “good soldier” who has come from humble roots.

The new chief of the army has reportedly created a division of labor with Musharraf. Kayani sticks to his formal job description and handles the many security challenges, such as in Swat, while Musharraf focuses on political affairs.

It is said that Kayani doesn’t have much political ambition. It’s unclear as to whether that’s a result of his insular personality or a strong view that the military shouldn’t be involved in politics. Previous Pakistani presidents have chosen what they saw as a benign COAS, only to find the opposite later.

Kayani was reportedly silent during Musharraf’s March meeting with Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, as the latter was being deposed. Furthermore, he was “neutral” on the imposition of emergency rule, when Musharraf queried his closest advisers.

The meaning of the poker-faced general’s behavior is unclear. Was he undecided about the treatment of the chief justice and suspension of the constitution? Or was he opposed to the prevailing consensus, but unwilling to openly express polite opposition to Musharraf — then his military senior?

While Kayani’s personality and past behavior are critical, the dynamics change significantly as he establishes himself at the army’s helm. Loyalties within the service begin to shift toward him. Grievances and demands within and without the army are channeled to Kayani, perhaps compelling him to play a role he has avoided.

In other words, while Kayani may be averse to politics, the institutional and power dynamics within Pakistan might force him to jump into the ring. Kayani has been deferential to Musharraf the chief of army staff — his military superior; but how will he view Musharraf, a civilian president, especially when that president becomes at loggerheads with an aggressive prime minister (i.e. Bhutto)?

NO CONCLUSION

The story will not end if and when the new parliament comes into session next year. Pakistan will remain deeply fractured and the elite discord that has ravaged the country since Jinnah’s death will remain. Musharraf once had a mandate to make lasting institutional change based on a national consensus. The tragedy of emergency rule is that it effectively meant the end for Musharraf — whose strengths are as compelling as his flaws — to bring Pakistan the viable, lasting governance framework it has never had. Instead of rising above the discordant elite and, through popular support, bringing them together, he has muddied himself and joined the fray. Pakistan, after eight years of Musharraf, seems in many senses to be back at square one.

Earlier today, Pervez Musharraf gave his farewell address to the army of Pakistan, passing the baton on to Gen. Ashfaq Kayani.

Musharraf appeared very stoic, if not discomfited; his successor, Kayani, was calm and cool. Nonetheless, the speech was revealing, with Musharraf detailing the formative role the army has played in his life and the role it should play as nation-builder and guardian of Pakistan.

THE ARMY AS “FAMILY”

Musharraf began his address by thanking Kayani and others for the honor they gave him.

He stated that after 46 years, he is saying goodbye to the army.

The outgoing chief of army staff said, “This army is my life. This army is my passion. I have given this army my love.”

Musharraf stated it was difficult to translate his sadness into words. He described the army as a family — a family that has given him its complete love and loyalty.

He added, that everything good has its end. Everyone has their time to go. This is how life works.

Musharraf continued by saying that while he’s sorry that he has to relinquish command of this “family,” he knows that he spent his 46 years with happiness and honor.

The army, said the former chief of staff, has provided him with many lessons. It has shaped the man he is — all of him. Everything he has learned — his knowledge, confidence, and people and leadership skills — has been taught to him by the army.

Musharraf then highlighted his army experiences. They included two external wars; internal security duties in Sui and Dera Bugti; flood relief; and a year’s service in a high-altitude area.

He said, he had comrades die in his arms during his war. The memories of difficulty and struggle, he remarked, are long-lasting.

THE “SAVIORS” OF PAKISTAN

Next, Musharraf went on to describe his view of the Pakistan army and its role in the country.The army, he said, is an integrating force. It defends national honor and integrity. It and its members are the “saviors of Pakistan.”

Pakistan’s army, commented Musharraf, defends the country from foreign attacks, as well as internal dangers, such as IEDs and suicide attacks. It has brought relief after floods in Balochistan, earthquakes in NWFP and Azad Kashmir. The army, said Musharraf, has reached areas inaccessible by machinery — such as when it developed roads in the remote Karakoram Valley.

Musharraf said it has been an honor to command the army and those who point a figure at or complain about it trouble him. These individuals don’t know, he commented, that the army is the guardian of Pakistan’s security and development.

THE ARMY’S CURRENT CHALLENGES

Musharraf said there is much “pressure” on the army today. Kashmir has always remained problematic. But today, FATA is a source of consternation and there are challenges in the settled areas of the NWFP. Balochistan has its security problems, though its state has improved.Musharraf conceded that the army is “stretched” to the “limit.” But at the same time, he asserted his belief that this “world class army” can rise to the challenges. He told his fellow service members that “when we put this uniform on, we seal our fate…to risking our lives for our country.” He described it as a trust and duty that can’t be shied away from.

Musharraf asserted that “we” — the army — “has to bring this country forward,” knocking out any obstacles along the way. The army, he said, has to face the current challenges and dangers and he is certain that it is prepared.

He expressed his contentment that he, in his opinion, leaves the army in “good condition” with the best equipment and training ever.

ON ASHFAQ KAYANI

Musharraf said that he’s known Gen. Kayani for over 20 years — since the latter was a colonel. He said he has been aware of Kayani’s greatness as a soldier and is certain that the army under him will reach new heights. Musharraf added that Kayani will give the army the dedication he’s shown him. He prayed that God preserves Kayani and enables him to lead the army with confidence and style, taking it to new thresholds.

THE “END”

Musharraf concluded as he began — very emotionally. He said, “I have taken off the uniform, but my heart and mind will always be with you.” Musharraf, now-ex chief of army staff, said he will remain concerned over the army’s interests and state.

Pakistan’s Election Commission began accepting nominations today for national and provincial assemblies. As a result, the Pakistani government has released thousands of political prisoners, including senior figures that could run in the elections, such as Imran Khan. Others, such as Javed Hashmi and Aitzaz Ahsan, remain imprisoned, though there have been reports that the latter’s release is imminent. Hashmi has spent more time in prison than out in recent years; it is less likely that he and other PML-N figures will receive a reprieve.

The release of political detainees comes because of Pervez Musharraf’s need to have his elections seen as legitimate. With leading politicians under house arrest or in jail, it would be impossible for Musharraf to make the case that he’s held free and fair elections.

Musharraf will likely space out the good news to not only mix with the bad, but to create a sense that there’s progress, that he’s gradually returning Pakistan to a state of constitutional normalcy.

Toward that, he will resign from the army as early as Saturday — a move that will attract significant attention.

Tomorrow, Bhutto and her PPP will decide whether they will participate in the elections. Most likely, she will state that her party will participate conditionally. They have till Monday to submit nomination forms, but they can withdraw their forms as late as December 15. As a result, Bhutto — due to political pragmatism and pressure from Washington — will probably state tomorrow that her party will file their nomination forms and will withdraw them should Musharraf not meet certain requirements. Bhutto will likely ease up on her calls for restoring the Supreme Court justices to office, as that will mean the end of Musharraf as president, but will lobby hard for the lifting of emergency rule and for a variety of changes to ensure that she won’t be duped into elections rigged against her.

Musharraf, however, has proved in recent weeks that he’s not ready to ditch the PML-Q. Support of the army support will remain critical, but Musharraf will, perhaps, also become increasingly dependent on political support from the PML-Q (i.e. the Chaudhries) as well as the MQM and JUI-F. The Election Commission’s code of conduct does not include the restrictions on campaign funding listed in the October draft version. That means Musharraf’s allies will be flooded with enough cash for them to gain a considerable upper-hand over Bhutto’s PPP.

The continuation of emergency rule will remain difficult for Musharraf. He seems to be quite adamant against lifting emergency rule prior to the elections. But George W. Bush, though describing Musharraf “as a man of his word” yesterday, stated “it’ll be hard for those of us who have belief that he’s advanced Pakistan’s democracy to say…that’s still the case [if elections are held under emergency rule].”

Considering that both Bhutto and the Bush administration are firmly against elections under emergency rule, Musharraf — should he not succumb to the pressure — will have to pull some tricks.  Further disturbance — for example, in the form of a terror attack or assassination attempt — would make the continuation of emergency rule more palatable or ‘necessary’.

Pervez Musharraf appointed Muhammad Mian Soomro, a loyalist and chairman of the Senate, as caretaker prime minister. Soomro, as Senate chairman, was in line to succeed Musharraf as president. In that capacity, he is now replaced by Chaudhry Amir Hussain. GEO reports that Salman Shah, an economic adviser to former prime minister Shaukat Aziz, will be minister of finance — an uncontroversial appointment.

The choice of Salman Taseer as minister of commerce is, however, surprising. Taseer, a prominent Pakistani businessman, owns WorldCall, the Daily Times (pictured above), and the Business Plus channel (which signed on to Musharraf’s media code of conduct). He is also a former PPP politician and author of a favorable biography of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Benazir’s father.

His paper’s editorials have consistently been in favor of a Bhutto-Musharraf deal. It is unclear as to whether Taseer’s appointment is a confidence building measure with Bhutto.

Others in the 15-member cabinet include: Nisar Memon, information minister; retired Lt. Gen. Hamid Nawaz, interior minister; and Inam ul Haq, foreign minister. The familiar faces make this cabinet, in many senses, a return to Musharraf’s 2002-3 cabinet.

• Musharraf: Uniform off by end of month; doesn’t budge on emergency rule (ER)
• White House: Free and fair elections not possible under ER; Negroponte arrives on Friday
• Army support of Musharraf appears to remain strong
• Swatting Swat: Full-scale army-led operations in effect; Internally-displaced persons in the thousands
• Caretaker prime minister to be appointed on Thursday; Muhammad Mian Soomro leads the pack:
  • If Soomro is chosen, the impact on presidential succession and dissolution of parliament is unclear. Senate chairman (was Soomro) is in line to succeed Musharraf should he vacate the presidency, with National Assembly Speaker Chaudhry Amir Hussain next in line. It appears both Senate chairman and NA speaker remain in office until new parliament convenes.
• Musharraf’s “Mission Accomplished”: The National Assembly completed its term for the first time in Pakistan’s history
• Operation Petty Stakes: The Islami Jamiat-e Tulaba (IJT), student wing of the Jamaat-e Islami (JI), seized Imran Khan during his rally at Punjab University. They detained him in a campus building and handed him over to police. Khan might be tried on anti-terror charges.
  • Khan has been allied with JI for some time. JI leadership condemned the IJT’s moves. A spokesperson said, “It seems like our student supporters reacted this way because of an ego issue…They didn’t want Imran to steal their limelight. We condemn this action.” However, three points need to be considered:
    1. The JI is reportedly working with the PML-Q on seat adjustment for the upcoming elections.
    2. Imran Khan is effectively an anti-establishment politician and, regardless of their differences, the major political parties are potentially threatened by his rise.
    3. The IJT is somewhat autonomous from the JI. Along with the student wing of the MQM, it has terrorized Pakistani university campuses for years. Though their actions against Khan could simply be defense of what they see as their turf, it is also probable that they could have at the behest of the intelligence services with or without the consent of the JI leadership.
• Battle of the Bhuttos: Benazir Bhutto sets a record for op-eds published while under house arrest; Fatima Bhutto, Benazir’s niece, tells the West that her aunt isn’t all that she seems

Benazir Bhutto called today for the resignation of Pervez Musharraf from both the army and presidency, giving strong indication that she has jumped off the fence and is now in complete opposition to Pakistan’s ruler. Though she has ruled out any future talks with Musharraf, it is unclear as to whether she is in communication with others in the army.

Her decision to fully oppose Pakistan’s ruler comes well after other opposition parties arrived at the same conclusion; it also follows her contravening of the spirit of the Charter of Democracy she signed with Nawaz Sharif in 2006 by going into talks with Musharraf. That is not to say others would not do the same if offered a Washington-backed foot in the door.

Though Bhutto now stands on the same side as Pakistan’s other opposition parties, she is not necessarily standing with them. Bhutto hasn’t completely ruled out participation in January’s scheduled polls. Indeed, she is clearly in campaign mode — intent on regaining the premiership and starting in Punjab. While other opposition leaders are — in the words of Imran Khan — “out of circulation,” Bhutto, using her relatively liberal treatment by Musharraf during emergency rule, has taken center stage.

While Washington might be comfortable with a post-Musharraf arrangement dominated by Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani and Benazir Bhutto, the Saudis are not enamored with the Daughter of the East and Darling of the West. Musharraf is expected to stop by Riyadh around John Negroponte’s visit this week; the Saudis would like to see the return of Nawaz Sharif, to restore a balance of civilian power favorable to them, and the release of ex-ISI chief Hamid Gul.

In order to ensure that Pakistan’s democratic moment lasts longer than a moment, Bhutto and, indeed, all of Pakistan’s opposition parties must mend relations; develop a collective agenda that also appreciates their natural political competition; and resist the temptation to resort to treachery, back-room deals, and — when out of power — sabotage.

If they fail to do so, Pakistan will witness a replay of previous short-lasting democratic transitions and a continuation of the corrosive cycle of failed civilian and military rule.

All this occurs at a critical juncture.  Neighbor and rival India, over the next fifteen years, will likely continue to move toward becoming a superpower. In which direction will Pakistan go? That of Algeria, Lebanon, or Somalia?

The onus is now on Pakistan’s civilian politicians to transcend their base instincts and not repeat the mistakes of the past. If they fail to do so, Pakistan may very well one day itself be seen as a mistake of the past.

URL: www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bal-op.pakistan06nov06,0,4170497.story

The Baltimore Sun
Pakistan suffering from Musharraf’s misdirected wrath
By Arif Rafiq

November 6, 2007

Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf imposed emergency rule Saturday, declaring that inaction would be suicidal for the country. However, his contravention and suspension of the country’s constitution is itself political suicide. Mr. Musharraf’s declaration of war against the judiciary, media and political opposition will redirect public fury toward him and away from the terrorists wreaking havoc across Pakistan, potentially precipitating widespread chaos.

The wave of militancy spreading from Pakistan’s hinterland near Afghanistan into its major cities is as deadly as it is unpopular. An overwhelming majority of Pakistanis oppose terrorism and seek the rule of law. Indeed, the country’s most popular institutions are the army, judiciary and media.

But Mr. Musharraf has, to the detriment of the country and himself, failed to leverage these sentiments into a broad coalition against militancy. To save his country from disaster, his only choice now is to step aside – a step the U.S. and Pakistan’s other benefactors should encourage.

Faced with two types of threats – militants who cut off the heads of his soldiers on one side, and the judiciary and political opposition on the other – Mr. Musharraf has conflated both, and in fact inflicted greater wrath on the latter. In doing so, he antagonizes the politicians, institutions and population segments whose support is critical for him to decisively combat terror. They are his natural allies in this war, though politically they are his foes. Mr. Musharraf blames them for stifling his countermilitancy campaign, but he and his dual roles as army chief and president are more culpable.

Mr. Musharraf’s dualism is contradictory and paralyzing. As chief of army staff, he needs widespread public and elite support to isolate and defeat the terrorists. As a partisan president, he needs to divide and conquer the opposition to maintain political power. Although a brilliant military strategist and effective ruler, he has failed at politics – said to be the art of compromise. And his political trials have distracted him and the senior army brass from their national security responsibilities.

Though his political demise has been reported prematurely many times, Mr. Musharraf now could be the instigator of widespread chaos in Pakistan. Consider a worst-case scenario:

First, Pakistan’s mainstream political opposition takes to the streets against Mr. Musharraf. Though thrashed by security forces, the protests swell. At the same time, insurgencies in Baluchistan, Swat and Waziristan intensify.

Terrorists continue to attack Pakistan’s major cities. Turmoil is widespread, hundreds, if not thousands, die, and Pakistan nears anarchy (though its nuclear weapons are never in danger because of the solid command-and-control structure).

With public anger fully focused on Mr. Musharraf, the army overthrows him, deciding that he is an unbearable liability to the institution. In the end, the military partially withdraws to the barracks so it can focus on defeating the multiple insurgencies. But Pakistan’s institutions are torn, and the country is irreparably fractured. Once an emerging economy and transitional democracy, Pakistan remains a stagnant kleptocracy for years. And all this occurs because one man has sought a political transition on his terms.

There is a way out, however. Mr. Musharraf’s three major foreign benefactors – the U.S., Saudi Arabia and China – can give him an ultimatum: Resign from your two posts now (and enjoy a clean exit while it’s still possible) and restore the constitution within two weeks, or we’ll cut off your aid.

In the short term, civilian support for a comprehensive military campaign against terrorists should come with a promise by a post-Musharraf military to restore the constitution and pre-emergency courts, as well as free and fair national and provincial parliamentary elections operated by an independent election commission and supervised by international monitors.

Beyond that, Pakistan’s elite must work together to develop an efficient, constitutional and consensus-based distribution of labor among the military, democratically elected politicians and the judiciary. If these institutions perform their primary tasks in concert, Pakistan can for the first time have security, democracy and the rule of law.

Arif Rafiq is a policy and communications consultant and editor of The Pakistan Policy Blog (www.pakistanpolicy.com).

Copyright © 2007, The Baltimore Sun

• Bush: Musharraf must hold elections and resign from army
  
• Rice criticizes imposition of emergency rule; states U.S. aid to Pakistan “under review”
• Musharraf meets with U.S. ambassador
  
• Martha Raddatz/ABC NEWS: CENTOM chief “visibly upset” after leaving Friday meeting with Musharraf
• Tuesday’s U.S.-Pakistan defense talks delayed
• WEDNESDAY: Deputy Sec. of State Negroponte to testify before House on Pakistan

The trio of the United States, China, and Saudi Arabia constitutes Pakistan’s most important foreign benefactors. All eyes, however, are on Washington this week as observers are looking to see the Bush administration will change its Pakistan policy in response to Pervez Musharraf’s imposition of emergency rule.

Washington’s reaction is highly important because of the strategic necessity of bilateral cooperation for both countries – especially at this time and juncture.

WHY ISLAMABAD NEEDS WASHINGTON

ECONOMIC AND MILITARY AID: Pakistan is a leading destination of U.S. foreign aid (total — not per capita). It has received approximately $10 billion in assistance from Washington since 2002. This figure was dished out a lot on the Sunday talk shows and is probably included in every presidential candidate’s talking points now. Expect to hear it repeatedly incessantly as Pakistan remains a hot issue in the U.S. over the coming months.

Washington’s aid serves to compensate Islamabad for costs incurred in its support for the war on terror, subsidize the modernization of Pakistan’s military, and provide macroeconomic stability. It helps further the Musharraf regime’s primary policy objectives: structural economic reform; maintaining conventional military parity with India; and ensuring the support of current and ex-military brass by distributing the spoils from the war on terror.

SOLE SUPERPOWER + REGIONAL FOOTING: At a broader level, Washington is a global hegemon with footprints in Pakistan’s proximity and serious long-term interests in the region. It does not serve the interest of Pakistan, nor any other state for that matter, to incur its unfettered wrath. Non-state actors, in contrast, have a different calculus marked by far less territorial and infrastructural risk.

There is a naive belief in Pakistan, including lately with some of Musharraf’s supporters, that — if necessary — they can ditch the United States and totally rely on China. But this route would only buy the current regime a few months. It’s not tenable beyond that. Pakistan would sent on the path of Myanmar — a pariah run by a military junta. In 1971, the army wrongly assumed that China would offer support after India’s entry into Pakistan’s civil war. But China did little for them then and expectations of what it can and will do now should be measured.

WHY WASHINGTON NEEDS ISLAMABAD

In the past, Washington wiped its hands clean of Islamabad upon the temporary cessation of the latter’s strategic utility. But in the short-term, and indeed beyond, it remains in the U.S. interest to have strong ties with Pakistan.

STABILIZING AFGHANISTAN: In the short to mid-term, the Pakistan-Afghanistan region along with Iran and Iraq constitute the three major strategic-military arenas for the United States. Pakistan shares a 1600 mile border with Afghanistan and provides critical supply routes for NATO forces in Afghanistan. Its frontier and tribal areas are an extension of NATO’s war in Afghanistan. Stabilizing Afghanistan, to some extent, requires a resolution to the Pak-Afghan border dispute and Pakistan’s crisis of governance in the northwest.

IRAN: Pakistan might provide critical air space in a future U.S. military campaign against Iran. IPI pipeline. More on Iran.

EMERGING ECONOMY: Pakistan is a massive country with a population over 160 million. A majority of its population is poor and illiterate, but Pakistan is an emerging market with one of the world’s best performing bourses and a growing — but increasingly strained — middle class.

NUCLEAR POWER: A nuclear power, elements within Pakistan’s military-intelligence complex have been part of the most active proliferation network. Though Pakistan’s nukes are firmly in the hands of its military and secured by a solid command and control structure, it is in Washington’s interest to ensure that these weapons are in the hands of individuals least likely to utilize or lend them.

MUSLIM DEMOCRACY: The world’s second largest Muslim country, Pakistan has greater democratic credentials than its Arab brethren and – with a mix of good policy and luck – can become a model Muslim democracy.

ENERGY CORRIDOR: Strategically located between Persian Gulf and Central Asian energy suppliers and growing consumers India and China, Pakistan and its new port city of Gwadar promises to become vital trans-Asian energy corridor/transit point in the coming years and decades.

WHAT WILL WASHINGTON DO?

In assessing Washington’s ‘final’ response to emergency rule in Pakistan, I would take the words of Tariq Fatemi, a retired senior Pakistani diplomat, as a guiding reference. He stated Sunday morning (New York time) on GEO that the U.S. and other western countries will express “regret and expectation of improvement”, but in the end it will be business as usual. Their primary interests in Pakistan, he added, center on three things:

1. The war on terror;
2. Continuation of military campaigns along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border;
3. Ensuring Pakistan’s help in a war against Iran.

Indeed, this theme was echoed by conservative commentator Brit Hume on Fox News Sunday. Describing Musharraf as a “bulwark” for the U.S., Hume noted that the current crisis presents a huge foreign policy dilemma for Washington, but there could be a plus side: Musharraf could more effectively help the U.S. under the current arrangement, i.e. emergency rule. In the end, he says, “We’ll make statements, issue urgings, and hold our nose and go on.”

But the situation in Pakistan is highly fluid and both the courses taken by the administrations in Islamabad and Washington will depend largely on the level of the street protests in Pakistan.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband stated in a press conference earlier today,”Now is not the time for threatening aid that effect the Pakistani people.” He stated that the “next few weeks will be critical [for Pakistan” — the time frame he mentioned suggests this is perhaps the window Washington is giving Musharraf to resolve things.

However, it might not take too long to get a sense of the path Washington takes on Pakistan. By the middle of the week, we’ll perhaps have come a long way from CENTOM Chief Admiral William Fallon’s long meeting with Musharraf, which — according ABC News’ Martha Raddatz — he left “visibly upset” after failing to convince the Pakistani president not to impose emergency rule.

On Wednesday, Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte testifies before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on “Democracy, Authoritarianism, and Terrorism in Contemporary Pakistan.” He will be grilled by Tom Lantos, Gary Ackerman, and Dana Rohrabacher in a full committee hearing. In anticipation, Negroponte and State will likely have to ready to produce some concrete positions and not simply dance around in diplomatic language.

An important factor could be whether Rice feels she has been ‘burned’ by Islamabad. Emergency rule was imposed despite her warnings against it. Moreover, it was implemented while she was busy in Turkey mediating between Turkish, Iraqi, and Kurdish parties.

Another factor are the rivalries within the Bush administration. Its Pakistan policy has been shaped significantly by the office of the vice president, which has proven to be recklessly obstinate and could advise “staying the course.” Moreover, Rice has her hands full with the ‘revived’ Israeli-Palestinian talks and Turkey-Iraq-Kurd problem. She reportedly had difficulty reaching Musharraf today — but did eventually manage to speak with him. An overwhelmed Rice could be more patient with a beleagured Musharraf, perhaps letting Cheney’s office remain in the driver’s seat. Alternatively, she could put on her black skirt and stiletto boots and make an impromptu visit to Islamabad and play hardball with Musharraf (she is in Jerusalem after all).

In short, the Bush administration hopes for things to settle down and for Musharraf to reverse his extra-constitutional moves, resign from the army, and continue as president. However, Musharraf has likely moved beyond the point of no return. Washington should help construct a safe, immediate exit for him and leverage the current climate to help produce a democratic Pakistan in which strong political parties, judiciary, and army work in concert to tackle the country’s many challenges, including terrorism, poverty, illiteracy, and establishing the rule of law.

• Musharraf suspends constitution, declares emergency rule, and imposes Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO)
  
• Transmission of news channels shut down in Pakistan
• Supreme Court Chief Justice sacked, arrested and replaced with Musharraf loyalist
• Over 1500 civilians arrested
• Senior figures jailed or house arrested:
  • Lawyers’ movement: Aitzaz Ahsan, Munir Malik, Ali Ahmad Kurd, Tariq Mehmood, Ikram Chaudhry, Syed Muhammad Shah, and Ahsan Bhon
    
  • Tehreek-e Insaf: Imran Khan (has reportedly gone into hiding after suggesting to AFP that Musharraf’s moves are treason punishable by death), Abdul Samad Shaikh, and Badar Soomro
    
  • PML-N: Javed Hashmi, Khawaja Asif, Afzal Gujjar, and Zahid Rafiq Butt
    
  • Human rights advocates: Asma Jehangir and I.A. Rehman
  • Ethnic politicians: Mehmood Khan Achakzai, Asfandyar Wali, and Hadi Bhat
    
  • Pro-jihadi voices: Hameed Gul
• Seven SC justices declare PCO unconstitutional [text of statement]
  
• PCO excerpt: “No court including the Supreme Court, the Federal Shariat Court, and the High Courts, and any tribunal or other authority shall call or permit to be called in question this Order.”
• State Department “deeply disturbed” by declaration of emergency rule
• Condoleeza Rice: ER is “highly regrettable”; Expressed opposition to emergency rule on Friday
• Benazir Bhutto returns to Karachi from Dubai
• Musharraf’s address to nation:
  • Inaction would be suicide for Pakistan
  • Need balance of powers between three branches of government;
  • Judiciary superseded its role and stifled counterterrorism efforts
  • All assemblies, chief ministers and governors will remain in place
  • Compares his extraconstitutional moves to those of Abraham Lincoln during U.S. Civil War
    
• Two new ordinances censoring media content
• Mushahid Hussain opposes emergency rule; Says 20 out of 25 members of Musharraf’s inner circle voted for emergency rule
• Live Pakistani television available on our site
• Texts of Emergency Proclamation, Provisional Constitutional Order, and State Department statement below
• NYT: CENTOM Chief Adm. William Fallon yesterday “told General Musharraf and his top generals in a meeting here that declaring emergency rule would jeopardize American financial support for the Pakistani military.”
• Pentagon spokesperson: No U.S. plans to suspend military aid to Pakistan
• Shaukat Aziz: Elections could be delayed for up to a year; 500 “preventative” arrests made
• Condoleeza Rice: U.S. will review aid to Pakistan
  
• Updates posted below

Pakistan’s ‘tumultuous two weeks‘ has begun with a bang. A state of emergency has been declared by Pervez Musharraf. He is expected to address the country at approximately 11PM Pakistan Standard Time/2PM New York.

The constitution has been suspended and the country is being run under a Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO). Seven judges of the Supreme Court — along with the media, a primary target of the constitutional suspension — have declared the PCO unconstitutional. Musharraf has sacked Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and another justice, Abdul Hameed Dogar (pictured on the left) — a Musharraf loyalist — has taken the oath to replace him. At this point, Dogar has only been joined by 3-4 other justices. Similar developments are occurring with provincial high courts.

The army has taken control of the Supreme Court, surrounded the buildings of major news stations, and arrested or detained many politicians. Cable television operators have been ordered to shut the transmission of news channels. Some Pakistani channels (such as GEO), broadcast out of Dubai and so they are available to viewers not utilizing Pakistani cable (e.g. Internet/satellite in and outside of Pakistan).

In his proclamation of emergency (full text below), Musharraf — identifying himself as chief of army staff, not president — cites the rising violence in the country as the basis for his imposing martial law. However, the text holds the judiciary most culpable for the rise in violence. It lambastes them for allegedly encroaching upon the territory of the legislative and executive branches, stating, “Whereas some members of the judiciary are working at cross purposes with the executive and legislature in the fight against terrorism and extremism, thereby weakening the government and the nation’s resolve and diluting the efficacy of its actions to control this menace.”

But it lists a litany of other alleged unrelated offenses by the judiciary, including: “interference by some members of the judiciary in government policy, adversely affecting economic growth.” Here and elsewhere in the text, they are referring to the Supreme Court’s opposition to the privatization of Pakistan Steel Mills, among other acts. Today’s events, therefore, extend beyond terror — even by Musharraf’s own admission. The declaration of emergency rule are a challenge to the separation of powers and independence of the judiciary.

Yesterday, I wrote that by mid-November, “we might find out what lessons [Musharraf has] learned from the strife of the past year. “

I asked: “Will he conclude that the solution involves not a greater centralization of power but an efficient distribution of labor between the military, popular civilian politicians, and the judiciary? Will he conclude that his greatest threat is not the country’s civilian politicians or judiciary, but vigilantees who cut off the heads of Pakistani soldiers and incinerate civilians in the streets?”

We apparently have our answers in advance. The answers seem to be, quite sadly, “No” and “No.”

UPDATE: 2:40PM – Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has returned to Karachi from Dubai. Her plane is currently on a tarmac at Karachi’s Quaid-e Azam International Airport. Approximately 100 security personnel have surrounded her Karachi home. It is unclear as to whether she will be sent abroad, arrested or detained, or permitted to travel somewhat freely.

UPDATE: 2:42PM – List of arrested or detained political, judicial, and social figures:

• Iftikhar Chaudhry (Supreme Court Chief Justice);
• Aitzaz Ahsan (People’s Party Senator and President of the Supreme Court Bar Association);
• Imran Khan (President, Tehreek-e Insaaf);
• Various Baloch and Sindhi nationalist leaders.

UPDATE: 2:48PM – U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice tells CNN that Musharraf’s declaration of emergency rule is “highly regrettable.”

UPDATE: 2:50PM – Musharraf is addressing the country on the state-run Pakistan Television (PTV). Address is simulcast on non-news channels.

UPDATE: 2:53PM – Musharraf’s address: Today’s events are the result of Pakistan’s internal discord. Says his guiding consideration for whatever action he has and will take is “Sub se pahlay Pakistan” (Pakistan first).

UPDATE: 2:55PM – Musharraf’s address: Terror attacks are widespread. In major cities across Pakistan. Terrorists don’t fear law enforcement agencies. They’re very confident. They’re in settled areas, such as Swat. Even in Islamabad, “the heart of Pakistan…the capital of Pakistan.” Militants have created a “government within the government” challenging the writ of the central government.

UPDATE: 2:57PM – Musharraf’s address: State of governance is “semi-paralysis.” Government officials have been “dishonored” by the judiciary. There are over 100 suo moto cases in the Supreme Court. Law enforcement agencies have been “demoralized.” Why? Because their officers have been charged, suspended, or convicted by the judiciary. As a result, they have been immobilized out of fear of punishment.

UPDATE: 3:00PM – Musharraf’s address: Describes three stages of his rule. First stage (1999-2002), Pakistan was a failing state when he took over. He was in total control in the first stage. In the second stage (2002-2007), he “oversaw” a transition to civilian, democratic governance. This was the first time Senate, National Assemblies, etc. lasted their entire time. Now we’re in the last stage of this transition — the third stage — in which there would be a complete return to civilian rule. He says he sought national reconciliation, but for political and other reasons, some have sought to obstruct this process in its final stages — the final few months.

UPDATE: 3:04PM – Musharraf’s address: There has been a great downturn. Foreign investors have slowed down their investment in Pakistan. The quality of life has improved over the past five years. Infrastructural development, airports, railways, mobile telephones, etc. are now spreading. In the social sector, primary and and secondary and higher education have been improving — but is afraid the advances of the past seven years will be washed away.

UPDATE: 3:06PM – Musharraf’s address: He says foreigners have been calling him in recent weeks, asking him what’s going on in Pakistan, as the uncertainty and instability rises. Says to that “some television channels” and “some television programs” have contributed to national uncertainty. He says this is the media that “I gave independence to.” “The media should be independent, but should be responsible.”

UPDATE: 3:09PM – Musharraf’s address: He asks, “Why are we in this situation?” Blames it on “judicial activism.” Says the judiciary has trampled upon the executive and legislative branches and that this began when he referenced the Supreme Court Chief Justice on March 9. Says he wasn’t personally involved in that.

UPDATE: 3:16PM – Musharraf’s address: Goes into detail about the recent rise of the militants — including into the heart of Islamabad. Says the government took action against them after patient deliberation. Says the courts subsequently freed individuals definitely involved in terrorism. Says they could have been involved in recent terror attacks. Says the courts ordered the re-opening of madrasas training militants.

UPDATE: 3:23PM – Musharraf’s address: My brothers and sisters…what is happening to this country? Where are we going? How do we curb this downside movement? Need a balance of powers between the three pillars of state — the judiciary, legislative and executive.

UPDATE: 3:25PM – Musharraf’s address: In order to complete the third phase, need emergency rule. No change in government. Prime ministers, governors, and chief ministers will remain in office. All the assemblies will remain in place.

UPDATE: 3:27PM – Musharraf’s address: Speaks in English now. Says he wants to speak to the world and “particularly to our friends in the West, the United States, the European Union, and the Commonwealth.” “I would ask you to kindly understand the criticality of the environment inside and outside Pakistan. Pakistan is on the verge of destabilization. If not arrested in time now, without any further delay, what saddens me most is that after all what we have achieved, I see in front of my eyes, Pakistan’s upsurge taking a downward trend. I personally, with all my conviction and with all the facts available to me. I consider that inaction at this moment is suicide for Pakistan and I cannot allow this country to commit suicide. Therefore, I had to take this action in order to preserve the democratic transition which I initiated eight years back…..I request you all to bear with us. To the critics and idealists against this action, I would like to say, please do not expect or demand your level of democracy, which you learned over a number of centuries. We’re also trying to learn and we’re doing well. Please give us time. Please also do not demand your level of civil rights, human rights, civil liberties which you’ve learned over centuries….Please give us time.”

UPDATE: 3:35PM – Musharraf’s address: He then reads a passage from a text on Abraham Lincoln’s suspension of habeus corpus during the civil war. Then he reads from a letter written by Lincoln, “My oath to preserve the constitution imposed on me the duty of preserving by every indispensable means that government that nation of which the constitution was the organic law. was it possible to lose the nation and yet preserve the constitution? by general law life and limb but be protected but often a limb must be amputated to save a life…i felt that measures otherwise unconstitutional might become unlawful by becoming indispensable to the right or wrong I assumed this wrong and now avow it.” Musharraf says, “We are also learning democracy. We are going through a difficult stage. It is the nation that is important. Pakistan comes first. Anyone else’s considerations comes after Pakistan. With all my sincerity, whatever I’m doing is in the interest of Pakistan.”

UPDATE: 3:37PM – Musharraf’s address: Ends address by returning to Urdu and stating that the people of Pakistan are agitated by the uncertainty will confront the nation’s challenges together.

UPDATE: 3:40PM – Benazir Bhutto has left Karachi airport and is on her way home to Bilawal House in Karachi’s Clifton area.

UPDATE: 3:47PM – Musharraf has issued two new ordinances affect the print and electronic media “prohibiting them to publish or broadcast statements that abet terrorist activities or terrorism.”

UPDATE: 3:53PM – Benazir Bhutto is holding a press conference right now. Reads Musharraf’s statement and says “this is not emergency rule” but martial law. Says martial law must be ended and the constitution must be revived immediately. Says she returned from Dubai immediately after learning that television transmission was being cut off in Pakistan. Expressed her solidarity with the rest of Pakistan’s political parties.
UPDATE: 4:03PM – Mushahid Hussain, secretary general of Musharraf’s Muslim League faction (PML-Q), tells the Washington Post of his opposition to the imposition of emergency rule, terming it “de facto martial law.” The Post says, “He said he had repeatedly tried to persuade the president against the measures in recent days but was outvoted within Musharraf’s inner circle.” Hussain says Musharraf “convened a meeting of his top advisers on Wednesday to discuss their options and that 20 of 25 were in favor of emergency rule.”

UPDATE: 4:15PM – Aitzaz Ahsan, president of the Supreme Court Bar Association and People’s Party senator, speaks to ARY One World from a police station bathroom. He refers to Musharraf as a “spoiled brat” and a “bad loser.” Says he’s arrested under a “maintenance of order” provision. [Video]

UPDATE: 8:02PM – Benazir Bhutto says, in an interview with NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, “we would like to protest the imposition of martial law, and we would like to raise our voices for the restoration of democracy. So we’re going to be meeting together to discuss the most effective ways of doing that.”

UPDATE: November 4, 2007 — 12:45AM - GEO reports that opposition figure Javed Hashmi and 10 other PML-N figures have been arrested in Multan.

UPDATE: 1:04AM – A Pentagon spokesperson says, “At this point, the declaration does not impact on our military support for Pakistan’s efforts in the war on terror.”

UPDATE: 1:26AM – Out of Pakistan’s three major Urdu news channels — GEO, ARY One World, and AAJ — only the latter beams exclusively out of Pakistan. Both GEO and ARY One World, for events like yesterday’s, made the wise decision years ago to transmit from Dubai’s Media City. Their main studios are also located there. As a result, they are still broadcasting to those who can receive their signal — satellite and Internet viewers. AAJ, unfortunately, is entirely Pakistan-based and to top it off, its broadcasting studios were raided by security officials and much of their equipment was confiscated. Their Karachi studios were targeted during the violence coinciding with the Chief Justice’s ill-fated visit to the city in May.

UPDATE: 2:45AM – Imran Khan, previously under house arrest, has been taken to Koh Lakhpat Jail, according to Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaaf. This comes after his many interviews with the Pakistani and foreign press, including one with the AFP in which he is quoted as suggesting that Musharraf has committed treason punishable by death.

UPDATE: 3:24AM – GEO reports that former ISI Chief Hameed Gul has been arrested.

UPDATE: 3:45AM – AAJ TV is back on air (available here), but like other channels currently permitted to broadcast in Pakistan, is broadcasting non-news and non-political content. But this site states that it had Ret. Judge Wajihuddin Ahmed on the air.

UPDATE: 3:58AM – AAJ TV seems to have been taken off the air again.

UPDATE: 4:19AM – Tariq Fatemi, a retired senior Pakistani diplomat tells GEO that U.S. and Western capitals’ public reaction with feature an “expression of regret and expectation of improvement”, but privately, it will be business as usual. He says their primary interests in Pakistan are three-fold: 1) The war on terror; 2) Continuation of military campaigns along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border; 3) Ensuring Pakistan’s help in a war against Iran.

UPDATE: 4:36AM – AAJ is back on the air. Another religious show is on.

UPDATE: 12:24PM – Geo reports that Asfandyar Wali, head of the Awami National Party, is under house arrest.

————————————————————————————

STATE DEPARTMENT STATEMENT [Link]

“The United States is deeply disturbed by reports that Pakistani President Musharraf has taken extra-constitutional actions and has imposed a state of emergency. A state of emergency would be a sharp setback for Pakistani democracy and takes Pakistan off the path toward civilian rule. President Musharraf has stated repeatedly that he will step down as Chief of Army Staff before re-taking the presidential oath of office and has promised to hold elections by January 15th. We expect him to uphold these commitments and urge him to do so immediate. The United States stand with the people of Pakistan in supporting a democratic process and in countering violent extremism. We urge all parties to work together to complete the transition to democracy and civilian rule without violence or delay.”

————————————————————————————

TEXT OF EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION (PDF)

ISLAMABAD, Nov 3 (AFP): This is the full text of the proclamation of the emergency:

PROCLAMATION OF EMERGENCY

Whereas there is visible ascendancy in the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks, including suicide bombings, IED explosions, rocket firing and bomb explosions and the banding together of some militant groups have taken such activities to an unprecedented level of violent intensity posing a grave threat to the life and property of the citizens of Pakistan.

Whereas there has also been a spate of attacks on state infrastructure and on law enforcement agencies;

Whereas some members of the judiciary are working at cross purposes with the executive and legislature in the fight against terrorism and extremism, thereby weakening the government and the nation’s resolve and diluting the efficacy of its actions to control this menace;

Whereas there has been increasing interference by some members of the judiciary in government policy, adversely affecting economic growth, in particular;

Whereas constant interference in executive function, including but not limited to the control of terrorist activity, economic policy, price controls, downsizing of corporations and urban planning, has weakened the writ of the government; the police force has been completely demoralized and is fast losing its efficacy to fight terrorism and Intelligence Agencies have been thwarted in their activities and prevented from pursuing terrorists;

Whereas some hard core militants, extremists, terrorists and suicide bombers, who were arrested and being investigated were ordered to be released.

The persons so released have subsequently been involved in heinous terrorist activities, resulting in loss of human life an property. Militants across the country have, thus, been encouraged while law enforcement agencies subdued;

Whereas some judges by overstepping the limits of judicial authority have taken over the executive and legislative functions;

Whereas the Government is committed to the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law and holds the superior judiciary in high esteem, it is nonetheless of paramount importance that the honourable Judges confine the scope of their activity to the judicial function and not assume charge of administrations;

Whereas an important constitutional institution, the Supreme Judicial Council, has been made entirely irrelevant and non est by a recent order and judges have, thus, make themselves immune from inquiry into their conduct and put themselves beyond accountability.

Whereas the humiliating treatment meted to government officials by some members of the judiciary on a routine basis during court proceedings has demoralized the civil bureaucracy and senior government functionaries, to avoid being harassed, prefer inaction;

Whereas the law and order situation in the country as well as the economy have been adversely affected and trichotomy of powers eroded;

Whereas a situation has thus arisen where the government of the country cannot be carried on it

Accordance with the constitution and as the constitution provides no solution for this situation, there is no way out except through emergent and extraordinary measures;
And whereas the situation has been reviewed in meetings with the Prime Minister, governors of all Provinces, and with chairman joint chiefs of staff committee, chiefs of the armed forces, vice chief of army Staff and corps commanders of the Pakistan army;

Now, therefore, in pursuance of the deliberations and decisions of the said meetings, I, General Pervez Musharraf, Chief of the Army Staff, proclaim emergency throughout Pakistan.

I hereby order and proclaim that the constitution of the Islamic republic of Pakistan shall remain in abeyance.

This Proclamation shall come into force at once.

————————————————————————————

TEXT OF PROVISIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER

Text of Provisional Constitution Order

ISLAMABAD, Nov 3 (APP) – Following is the text of the Provisional Constiotution Order issued on Saturday:

PROVISIONAL CONSTITUTION ORDER

In pursuance of the Proclamation of the 3rd day of November, 2007, and in exercise of all powers enabling him in that behalf, the Chief of Army Staff under the Proclamation of Emergency of the 3rd day of November, 2007, is pleased to make and promulgate the following Order:-

1. (1) This Oder may be called the Provisional Constitution Order No. 1 of 2007.

(2) It extends to the whole of Pakistan,

(3) It shall come into force at once.

2* (1) Notwithstanding the abeyance of the provisions of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, hereinafter referred to as the Constitution, Pakistan shall, subject to this Order and any other Order made by the President be governed, as nearly as may be, in accordance with the Constitution:

Provided that the President may, from time to time, by Order amend the Constitution, as is deemed expedient;

Provided further that the Fundamental Rights under Articles 9, 10, 15,16,17,19 and 25 shall remain suspended.

(2) Notwithstanding anything contained in the Proclamation of the 3rd day of November, 2007, or this Order or any other law for the time being in force all provisions of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan embodying Islamic injunctions including Articles 2t 2A, 31, 203A to 203J, 227 to 231 and 260 (3) (a) and (b) shall continue to be In force.

(3) Subject to clause (1) above and the Oath of Office

(Judges) Order, 2007, all courts in existence immediately before the commencement of this Order shall continue to function and to exercise their respective powers and jurisdication.

Provided that the Supreme Court or a High Court and any other court shall not have the power to make any order against the President or the Prime Minister or any person exercising powers or jurisdiction under their authority.

(4) All personi who immediately before the commencement of this Order were in office as judges of the Supreme Court, the Federal Shariat Court or a High Court, shall be governed by and be subject to the Oath of Office (Judges) Order, 2007, and such further Orders as the President may pass.

(5) Subject to clause (1) above, the Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) and the Provincial Assemblies shall continue to function.

(6) All persons who, immediately before the commencement of this Order, were holding any service, post or office in connection with the affairs of the Federation ox of a Province, including an All Pakistan Service, Service in the Armed Forces and any other Service declared to be a Service of Pakistan by or under Act of Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) or of a Provincial Assembly, or Chief Election Commissioner or Auditor General shall continue in the said service on the same terms and conditions and shall enjoy the same privileges, if any, unless these are changed under Orders of the President.

3, (l) No court including the Supreme Court, the Federal Shariat Court, and the High Courts, and any tribunal or other authority shall call or permit to be called in question this Order, the Proclamation of Emergency of the 3rd day of November, 5007, the Oath of Office (Judges) Order, 2007 or any Order made in pursuance thereof.

(2) No judgment, decree, writ, order or process whatsoever shall be made or issued by any court or tribunal against the President or the Prime Minister or any authority designated by the President.

4. (]) Notwithstanding the abeyance of the provisions of the Constitution, but subject to the Orders of the President, all laws other than the Constitution, til Ordinances. Orders, Rules, Bye-laws, Regulations, Notifications and other legal Instruments in force in any part of Pakistan, whether made by the President or the Governor of a Province, shall continue in force until ltered, amended or repealed by the Preaidont or any authority designated by him.

5. (I) An Ordinance promulgated by the President or by the Governor of a Province shall not be subject to any limitations as to duration prescribed in the Constitution.

(2) The provisions of clause (1) shall also apply to an Ordinance issued by the President or by a Governor which was in force immediately before the commencement of the Proclamation of Emergency of the 3rd day of November, 2007.

• November 6: Earliest date for Supreme Court ruling on Pervez Musharraf’s re-election eligibility
• November 7: Possible date for Nawaz Sharif departure of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia for London
• November 8: Benazir Bhutto expected to return to Pakistan from Dubai
• November 8: Supreme Court to receive report from Sindh government on Bhutto blasts
• November 9: Bhutto to hold rally in Rawalpindi
• November 15: Musharraf’s presidential term expires
• ~ November 15: Nawaz Sharif returns to Pakistan?
• Ongoing: Waziristan insurgency
• Ongoing: Swat clashes
• Ongoing: Suicide attacks across the country targeting senior military officials, civilian leaders, and military convoys and installations

Pakistan’s short-term volatility will continue, at the very least, till late January to early February. By then — if things go as scheduled — a new, shaky governing coalition will have formed after fresh parliamentary elections.

There are multiple variables — national, provincial, local, regional and global — that could end up shaping Pakistan’s fate in the near-mid term.

As such, the uncertainty is widespread — going all the way to the top in both Islamabad and Washington. But what is clear is that the next two weeks will feature events of paramount significance for Pakistan.

The most important date on the calendar is November 15, which is when Musharraf’s current presidential term expires. Musharraf pledged that, if re-elected as president, he’ll resign from the army, vacate the position of chief of army staff (the most powerful position in the country), and take his second term oath as a civilian.

Musharraf has already been re-elected, but his candidacy remains contested. It’s an asterisked victory similar to Barry Bonds’ breaking of Hank Aaron’s home run record.

In a ruling as convoluted as Pakistan’s constitutional history, the Supreme Court permitted presidential elections (conducted via an electoral college) to go on with Musharraf on the ballot, but deferred deciding on his eligibility to run. Their subsequent ruling on his eligibility, which hasn’t been made yet, will be retroactive. If they decide in the negative, Musharraf will — according to Pakistan’s constitution — remain as president until his successor is elected.

The Supreme Court was originally expected to make a decision by today. During the week, Musharraf’s camp put out suggestions in the media that emergency rule could be imposed. This would give the president license to subvert the current constitutional restrictions and time tables imposed on him — though some elements in Musharraf’s circle stated that the election schedule and most press freedoms would remain unaffected.

Most likely, the emergency rule chatter was merely a means to pressure the judiciary to not only produce a decision favorable to Musharraf, but also in the desired time frame. Supreme Court Justice Javed Iqbal replied that the court won’t be impacted by such threats. Indeed, the Court went even further, announcing yesterday that lawyers’ arguments have taken longer than expected and should a decision not be reached on Friday, proceedings would resume on November 12. Their curious explanation for the week-long delay: a justice will be unavailable due to his daughter’s wedding.

Benazir Bhutto apparently took the threat seriously, albeit briefly. She postponed her trip to Dubai as a result, but then surprised many when she left for Dubai yesterday. The reasons for the change in her decision are unknown, but curiously half a day later, Condoleeza Rice issued a statement opposing the imposition of martial law in Pakistan. In other words, Bhutto likely had assurances from Rice before her departure that Washington wouldn’t tolerate emergency rule.

After Rice’s statement, the Supreme Court changed course, announcing today that it will continue deliberations on Monday and Tuesday. After staving off Musharraf’s pressure tactics and perhaps receiving indirect support from Washington, the court could produce a final decision as early as Tuesday.

The court is expected to rule in Musharraf’s favor. Still, Musharraf would like greater breathing room — a comfortable window in between the court’s verdict and the end of his first term.

More imminent than the latter is the potential departure of Nawaz Sharif from Saudi Arabia. Sharif could return to London as early as Wednesday – and possibly try to return to Pakistan the following week.

Meanwhile, Bhutto expects to return to Pakistan by Thursday the latest and address a rally in Rawalpindi on Friday. Bhutto could address the rally virtually by phone or tape recording, but regardless the Pindi rally is highly significant. Firstly, Rawalpindi the seat of the Pakistani army and neighbors Islamabad. Secondly, it’ll mark her first entry into Punjab (Pakistan’s largest province), which will unsettle her greatest political rivals — the Chaudhry cousins of the PML-Q party. The PML-Q is already concerned about losing partial or total control nationally to Bhutto’s PPP. A serious challenge in Punjab, which they govern, by Bhutto’s party would be an existential threat for them politically.

Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N is expected to have a strong showing in Punjab. It has a wider, more natural support base in the province than the Chaudhries’ PML-Q. It could also welcome PML-Q defectors sensing the turning of the tide. An assertive Punjab campaign by the PPP could further eat up the Chaudhries’ spoils, leaving them with little more than Gujrat. In this scenario, they could conceivably pair up with the PML-N or PPP in a coalition, but the odds of them playing dirty are unfortunately greater.

Musharraf (and Pakistan as a whole) faces a tough two weeks. The political-legal uncertaintity and boiling tensions in Waziristan and Swat, combined with the wave of suicide attacks against the armed forces and senior leaders (including Benazir Bhutto and CJCS Gen. Tariq Majeed) across the country, will crescendo.

While emergency rule is highly improbable, Musharraf could issue and utilize an ordinance that would enable the army to court martial and detain civilians indefinitely and without charge. The ordinance would likely be advertised as targeting militants, but there is a strong possibility it could be used against political opponents. If promulgated, the Supreme Court will likely receive petitions against its constitutionality. Still, the Supreme Court has proven to operate slowly as it is overwhelmed with high-profile cases. This could give Musharraf’s government a decent window in which to make use of the ordinance before it is knocked out.

The next two weeks will be a difficult test for Musharraf. At its end, we might find out what lessons he’s learned from the strife of the past year. Will he conclude that the solution involves not greater centralization of power but an efficient distribution of labor between the military, popular civilian politicians, and the judiciary? Will he conclude that his greatest threat is not the country’s civilian politicians or judiciary, but vigilantees who cut off the heads of Pakistani soldiers and incinerate civilians in the streets? Perhaps we’ll see on November 15th.