If former Army Chief of Staff Gen. (retired) Mirza Aslam Baig is correct, parliament will soon move to repeal article 58(2)(b) of the constitution, which gives the president the broad authority to dissolve the National Assembly. But in a post-1998 Pakistan, there is a presidential power that is of greater concern to others, including Washington: that over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

After taking power in his 1999 coup, Pervez Musharraf moved immediately to establish a nuclear command and control system. He has succeeded in doing so and should be credited for this. Washington has also been discretely helpful, providing over $100 million since 2001 to help Pakistan safeguard its nuclear assets. Its helpfulness, however, could now be verging on interference.

Pakistan is in a state of political and constitutional flux. Currently, the National Command Authority (NCA) maintains ultimate control over Pakistan’s nukes. It is chaired by the president, Pervez Musharraf, a known and reasonably trustworthy entity in the eyes of Washington. At this point, there has been no indication that parliament will make changes to the NCA. But if Musharraf goes, then that power would transfer on to his successor, whoever that might be. A post-Musharraf president would likely be a nominal figure. Parliament would probably move to make the prime minister head of the NCA.

Amidst this uncertainty, Washington is seeking to develop a direct link to the NCA. The News reports that Washington wants to place a “permanent official” at the U.S. embassy in Islamabad who would have “direct access to the National Command Authority secretariat.”

The request has not been received well in Pakistan (what has?). Senior defense analyst and retired general Talat Masood, who is generally favorable to the U.S., tells The News:

“This is outright interference in Pakistan’s affairs. On what basis does the US want direct access to the NCA? Does the US have any particular fears or apprehensions? The US laws do not allow any transfer of nuclear technology or assets to Pakistan, so why should there be any such officer in the US embassy in Islamabad? There would be very grave implications if such a proposal is given serious thought by our government.”

Senior Bush administration officials have repeatedly expressed their confidence in Pakistan’s command and control system. That is clearly not the issue. Washington’s problem is not with the system, but the future of its leadership. It apparently has little faith in a president or prime minister other than Musharraf with ultimate control over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Rather than cultivating a relationship with a broad spectrum of Pakistan’s civilian elites, Washington all too often skirts those it dislikes and could very well be antagonizing a future master of Pakistan’s nukes. This NCA liaison position is the Bush administration’s lazy way of getting around the more time consuming challenge of pro-actively engaging Pakistan’s politicians.

Let’s Continue Our Conversation…in London
Shahbaz Sharif, president of the Muslim League-Nawaz, tells BBC Urdu that “If Musharraf becomes neutral and promises to hold the polls in a free and fair manner, talks can be held with him.” This is a major break with precedent. Previously the Sharif brothers have publicly ruled out any compromise with Musharraf.

It’s unclear whether Shahbaz’s statement has his brother’s endorsement, though this is highly likely. It could be that Shahbaz is playing good cop, while Nawaz plays bad cop. Additionally, Shahbaz is seen as more conciliatory than his older brother, which would provide Nawaz with some cover (i.e. creating the impression that his brother talked him down from the ledge). A less likely alternative is that Musharraf could be successfully playing one Sharif brother off of the other by offering Shahbaz, not Nawaz, a major position in the national unity government (perhaps prime minister).

Shahbaz has extended his stay in London, where he’ll meet with retired Brigadier Niaz Ahmed (they met in Islamabad over a week ago) and could meet with Pervez Musharraf, who has begun a four nation tour of Europe.

Musharraf will eventually make his way to London, but there are no meetings with government officials slated. Gordon Brown is currently in India, where he called for New Delhi’s addition to the UN Security Council. Musharraf could be avoiding Brown’s snub of Pakistan, but his trip is also designed to temper European opposition. Musharraf will also meet Niaz Ahmed. Prior to leaving Pakistan, Musharraf met with the emir of Abu Dhabi on Saturday. The emirate played host to a Bhutto-Musharraf meeting in July.

Zardari and Malik Qayyum Meet in Dubai
National reconciliation talks must, apparently, occur outside of Pakistan, and so Attorney General Malik Qayyum met with Asif Ali Zardari in Dubai on Saturday. Both left Pakistan in a curiously furtive fashion. The PPP has publicly remained open to dealing with Musharraf after the elections and strongly resist the idea of a national reconciliation government prior to the elections, as they’d delay the polls.

It’s a positive development if Musharraf is negotiating with both the Sharifs and Zardari in earnest. If he’s playing them off of each other, then Musharraf is playing with fire.

Opposition Tours the U.S.
Several opposition figures are on a tour of the United States. Sherry Rehman and Javaid Laghari, both of the People’s Party, will be speaking at the Brookings Institution tomorrow. Imran Khan will be on a multi-city tour, speaking at organizations such as Amnesty International and CSIS and in Pakistani community events, which seem to be fund raisers for his Tehreek-e Insaaf Party.

Fazlur Rahman: Saudi Challo
Maulana Fazlur Rahman was noticeably absent from the public since the news reporting serious threats against him. And he’s done what he seems to do often in challenging moments, go to Saudi Arabia.

Geo Back
Earlier last week, Talat Hussain returned to AAJ television to host his weeknightly public affairs program. In his first show back on air, Talat said he’s back with no strings attached. But it seems as if the show (Live with Talat) is now taped, not live (in accordance with the new media control rules). There is also little mention of the judiciary issue. Nonetheless, the show remains engaging and informative.

GEO News also returned to the air waves today sans their most popular political talk show hosts, Hamid Mir and Shahid Masood. Kashif Abbasi, another prominent television journalist, remains off of ARY One World.

Back to the Barracks
Chief of Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani has recalled a number of active military officers from cushy positions within the civilian bureaucracy. This follows his earlier move barring senior officers from meeting with politicians.

Pakistan continues along a mixed, though largely negative trajectory as the spate of urban suicide bombing continues and insurgents make bold moves in South Waziristan, while the army strengthens its control over Swat and leaders flinch toward national reconciliation. The army’s immediate workload increases, but Gen. Ashfaq Kayani takes clear steps to depoliticize the institution. In both Pakistan and Afghanistan, efforts toward dividing and containing the Taliban continue. Election campaigning proceeds, though in a less spirited fashion prior to Benazir Bhutto’s assassination.

Terrorist Strikes Shi’a Gathering in Peshawar
A teenage suicide bomber clad in black struck an imambargah, a site for ritualistic mourning for Shi’a Muslims, in Peshawar today, the seventh day of the month of Muharram. This month is significant for all Muslims, but it holds a particular importance for the Shi’a. Their commemoration crescendos on the tenth day, Ash’ura, as they mourn the martyrdom of Imam Hussain. Ash’ura falls on Sunday; the army, local police, and private mosque security squads are under high alert. However, that will not preclude attacks such as today’s from occurring. The bomber that struck the imambargah today detonated his device after being stopped by police, killing ten individuals. Targeting the Shi’a is a major point of convergence for al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and various southern Punjabi Sunni militant groups.

Swat and Getting Swatted
Pakistan’s army continues to make gains in Swat, a settled, scenic valley in the North-West Frontier Province. According to Director General Military Operations Maj. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, Operation Rah-e Haq has been successfully completed. The army, he says, established its hold over the area in late December, killing or apprehending major militants associated with Maulana Fazlullah, who remains holed up in a mountainous area packed in by recent heavy snowfall. It is now making steps toward issuing a compensation and development package for the area and has replaced Fazlullah’s FM radio station with several of its own. The speed and effectiveness of the government’s resettlement of internally displaced people and restoring the civil administration and political parties remains significant. Half-hearted measures will only result in local discontent that Fazlullah or a subsequent variant can feed off of.

In a marked contrast to the government’s military success in Swat, it continues to struggle in South Waziristan. This week, two forts were taken over by insurgents, who had little trouble combating the undertrained and ill-equipped paramilitary Frontier Corps. Their Wednesday night attack on a fort, which they held and then withdrew from, was made by a group of 200-1,000 men, overwhelming the 40 FC troops stationed there.

This large scale attack by neo-Taliban affiliated with Baitullah Mehsud is the first of its kind as guerrilla tactics are normally used. If this marks a strategic shift for Mehsud, it is both an alarming development for Pakistan’s military as well as a potential source of opportunity. Its success in Swat was partially precipitated by the overstretching of Maulana Fazlullah’s forces, though Fazlullah’s group is vastly smaller and less sophisticated and armed than Mehsud’s. And so if Mehsud’s forces press toward Pakistani military installations in large numbers, they provide an opportunity to be eliminated in larger numbers of them in a short amount of time with an aerial assault. That is why Mehsud group did not hold on to the fort in Wednesday night’s attack.

U.S. Special Forces’ counterinsurgency training of Pakistan’s Frontier Corps accelerates this year, but there’s no indication that any substantive progress will be achieved before the spring. In the interim, Pakistan could benefit by goading Mehsud into adopting more conventional and exposing tactics.

Tea with the Taliban
As the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan sat and drank chai with former Taliban leader and now Musa Qala governor Abdul Salaam, the strategy of dividing and containing (or incorporating) the Taliban continues in Pakistan. The federal government is exploiting the traditional and on-going rivalries between the Ahmedzai Wazirs and the Mehsuds in Southern Waziristan. It could be imposing a blockade of sorts on the Mehsuds, to the advantage of the Ahmedzais. Curbing the flow of drugs and other illicit contrabands will weaken the Mehsuds, but it’s unclear as to whether the Pakistani military is effectively declaring war on the Mehsud tribe or whether it’s trying to make them see Baitullah Mehsud as a source of their problems.

Eurotrip: The National Reconciliation Tour
On Saturday, Muslim League-Nawaz President Shahbaz Sharif met in Islamabad with Niaz Ahmed, a retired military officer who serves as an intermediary between the Sharif brothers and Pervez Musharraf. The octogenarian retired brigadier was an army instructor to Pervez Musharraf and is well-respected by the Sharif brothers due to past favors. He reportedly presented Shahbaz, the younger Sharif, with an offer straight from Musharraf to take part in a national unity government before the elections and have a considerable role thereafter. The Sharifs were also requested to tone down their criticism of Musharraf.

Shahbaz reportedly replied that he’d have to have discuss any offer with his elder brother, Nawaz, who was nearby in the resort town of Murree. After being caught leaving Ahmed’s Islamabad home by spunky Pakistani journalists, Shahbaz described his meeting with Ahmed as a “courtesy call.” Coincidentally, he also met the Saudi ambassador to Pakistan, Ali Awadh Asseri. The Saudis have a keen interest in seeing the return of the Sharifs to power and have for years played a role in managing Sharif-Musharraf relations.

And in yet another coincidence, Shahbaz Sharif, Pervez Musharraf, and Niaz Ahmed will all be in London this Friday. Shahbaz claims he’s going to London for medical treatment, but there’s no sign his hair plugs need re-alignment.

As of now, Nawaz Sharif, who is seen by some as less compromising than his brother, has continued his call for a national unity government without Pervez Musharraf. But he has called for a re-scheduling of elections so that new election commission could be formed, headed by deposed Supreme Court Justice Rana Baghwandas, enabling the participation of Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e Insaaf and the Jamaat-e Islami. The PPP strongly rejected Sharif’s proposal.

The elections delay serves the interest of all parties save the PPP, which will lose the sympathy vote as we get further away from Benazir Bhutto’s death. This brings up some significant questions in regard to the national reconciliation talk.

Is it an attempt by Musharraf to divide and control the opposition? Until now, the PML-N has been following the lead of the PPP. Is that changing? Does the PML-N share an interest with Musharraf in checking the PPP, particularly in Punjab? We’ll probably get a good sense this weekend as to the status of the Sharif-Musharraf talks.

Where’s the PPP in all this? Earlier this week, there was a rumored meeting between Musharraf and Asif Zardari, which the PPP denied. But Amin Fahim, the PPP vice chairman, likely met Musharraf around a week ago. PPP spokesman Farhatullah Babar said that “all options are open” in regard to cooperation with Musharraf after the elections.

And what about the PML-Q? Earlier this week, Pervaiz Elahi, always on the attack, said that “all those parties after smelling their defeat in the upcoming general elections are giving suggestions for formation of the national government which has no constitutional, ethical and democratic reasons.” But then Chaudhry Shujaat, his cousin, stated yesterday that his party will form a national unity government after the elections and will invite the PPP and PML-N.

Pakistan will likely see some form of a national unity government. But it remains to be seen as to whether it will be formed before or after the elections, with or without Pervez Musharraf, and all the parties, including the PML-Q.

Kayani’s De-Politicization of the Army
Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani issued an order prohibiting army officers from meeting with politicians. When the directive was first reported, it was unclear as to whether Pervez Musharraf, now a civilian president, was included in the category of politicians. After all, he still lives in the military’s headquarters. Retired Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, a former chief of army staff, tells the Daily Times that meeting with Musharraf is also prohibited, but there was no confirmation from government sources. New Inter-Services Public Relations spokesperson Athar Abbas also distanced the army from Musharraf’s claim that Benazir Bhutto was not popular with the Pakistani army.

But Army Has More Duties
While the army might be doing less politicking, its burden has now increased. It has now been tasked with defense of the country’s increasingly scarce wheat supplies. This is on top of its responsibilities in fighting insurgencies, defending Pakistan’s borders, and providing security for some of Pakistan’s major cities after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

Today, Gen. Kayani met with junior commissioned and non-commissioned army officers. He emphasized his two major themes of improving the army’s “professional excellence” as the standard of living for all of those in its ranks. But importantly, he emphasized that the army’s primary duty is to defend the country’s borders.

Aitzaz Ahsan’s Return to the PPP
The spirit of reconciliation is alive. Asif Zardari will reportedly promote Aitzaz Ahsan to People’s Party vice chairman. This is a move to push the PPP in Punjab. As I noted earlier, Zardari will be moving to Lahore to build up the party there. But this also marks a challenge to the PML-N and PML-Q, whose support base is almost exclusively in that province.  Aitzaz was paid a visit by Attorney General Malik Qayyum, who reportedly offered an end to his house arrest if he hushed up about the judges issue.

The Travails of Maulana Diesel
It hasn’t been a good week or so for Maulana Fazlur Rahman. He’s been staying indoors lately as a result of the reported assassination threats made against him. His party, the JUI-F, is facing some turbulence; it recently expelled 18 party members. Fazl tells BBC Urdu that a senior Punjab official replied to his request for security by stating, “No money, no security.”

Emergency rule will likely end tomorrow and so Pervez Musharraf has been busy utilizing his soon-to-be-gone self-given powers to amend the constitution by decree.

Last night, he issued an ordinance formally institutionalizing the National Command Authority (NCA)– established in February 2000. The ten-member body “exercise[s] complete command and control over all nuclear and space related technologies, systems and matters.”

The president chairs the NCA with the prime minister as vice chairman. Its remaining members are the foreign, defense, and interior ministers; chiefs of the army, naval, air force staff; the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee; and the director general of the Strategic Plans Division, who also serves as secretary general of the group.

Musharraf will also issue five other ordinances, one of which will reportedly satiate Benazir Bhutto (and indirectly Nawaz Sharif) by lifting the bar on a third prime ministerial term.

Tariq Mahmood / AFP/Getty Images

Pakistan is again the focus of The Atlantic Monthly in its regularly surveying of American foreign policy experts. It asked 41 foreign policy authorities:

• Should the United States unilaterally go after al-Qaeda leaders and training camps in Pakistan?
  • Results: 50% Yes; 50% No
• How likely is a U.S. incursion into the tribal areas in the next two years?
  • Results: 65% Somewhat Likely; 18% Highly Likely; 17% Highly Unlikely

It should be noted that none of those surveyed were Pakistan or South Asia specialists.

Some selected responses to the first question:

• Yes:
  • “While it was a reasonable balancing of risks to give the Pakistanis the time and space to deal with the re-growth of al-Qaeda base on their territory, that time has now passed as it has become clear that they have neither the will or capability to do so. It would certainly be better to do this with stealth than with a large footprint operation, but the time for a direct response is now.”
  • “As al-Qaeda gets stronger in Pakistan and as its leaders elevate their public profile in the shadow of Musharraf’s troubles, the pressure on the administration to do ‘something’ will be high, and it is possible that they will carry out some action to respond to domestic pressure during an election year.”

• No:
  • “Unless we can be (and how could we be?) 100% sure of finding and capturing Osama Bin Laden himself, the downside—in Pakistan above all but [also] in the Muslim world at large—of being seen to trample on Pakistani sovereignty and to attack and kill Muslims in a Muslim land would be immense, with no comparable gain.”
  • “[It is] better at this point to seek joint operations with Pakistani forces. Unilateral operations by the United States, except in the event of a devastating terrorist strike in the United States shown to emanate from the tribal areas, would be hard to justify and [would] produce a counterproductive backlash in Pakistan.”
  • “Even the best planned raids and air strikes come with probabilities and risks attached, but we should have learned that American unilateralism, especially when other people die, invariably comes with a heavy price tag.”

Participants: Graham Allison, Ronald Asmus, Samuel Berger, Daniel Blumenthal, Stephen Bosworth, Daniel Byman, Warren Christopher, Wesley Clark, Ivo Daalder, Douglas Feith, Jay Garner, Leslie Gelb, Marc Grossman, John Hamre, Gary Hart, Bruce Hoffman, Laura Holgate, John Hulsman, Robert Hunter, Tony Judt, Robert Kagan, David Kay, Andrew Krepinevich, Charles Kupchan, John Lehman, James Lindsay, Edward Luttwak, John McLaughlin, William Nash, Joseph Nye, Carlos Pascual, Thomas Pickering, Paul Pillar, Kenneth Pollack, Joseph Ralston, Susan Rice, Wendy Sherman, Anne-Marie Slaughter, James Steinberg, Shibley Telhami, Anthony Zinni.

URL: www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bal-op.pakistan06nov06,0,4170497.story

The Baltimore Sun
Pakistan suffering from Musharraf’s misdirected wrath
By Arif Rafiq

November 6, 2007

Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf imposed emergency rule Saturday, declaring that inaction would be suicidal for the country. However, his contravention and suspension of the country’s constitution is itself political suicide. Mr. Musharraf’s declaration of war against the judiciary, media and political opposition will redirect public fury toward him and away from the terrorists wreaking havoc across Pakistan, potentially precipitating widespread chaos.

The wave of militancy spreading from Pakistan’s hinterland near Afghanistan into its major cities is as deadly as it is unpopular. An overwhelming majority of Pakistanis oppose terrorism and seek the rule of law. Indeed, the country’s most popular institutions are the army, judiciary and media.

But Mr. Musharraf has, to the detriment of the country and himself, failed to leverage these sentiments into a broad coalition against militancy. To save his country from disaster, his only choice now is to step aside – a step the U.S. and Pakistan’s other benefactors should encourage.

Faced with two types of threats – militants who cut off the heads of his soldiers on one side, and the judiciary and political opposition on the other – Mr. Musharraf has conflated both, and in fact inflicted greater wrath on the latter. In doing so, he antagonizes the politicians, institutions and population segments whose support is critical for him to decisively combat terror. They are his natural allies in this war, though politically they are his foes. Mr. Musharraf blames them for stifling his countermilitancy campaign, but he and his dual roles as army chief and president are more culpable.

Mr. Musharraf’s dualism is contradictory and paralyzing. As chief of army staff, he needs widespread public and elite support to isolate and defeat the terrorists. As a partisan president, he needs to divide and conquer the opposition to maintain political power. Although a brilliant military strategist and effective ruler, he has failed at politics – said to be the art of compromise. And his political trials have distracted him and the senior army brass from their national security responsibilities.

Though his political demise has been reported prematurely many times, Mr. Musharraf now could be the instigator of widespread chaos in Pakistan. Consider a worst-case scenario:

First, Pakistan’s mainstream political opposition takes to the streets against Mr. Musharraf. Though thrashed by security forces, the protests swell. At the same time, insurgencies in Baluchistan, Swat and Waziristan intensify.

Terrorists continue to attack Pakistan’s major cities. Turmoil is widespread, hundreds, if not thousands, die, and Pakistan nears anarchy (though its nuclear weapons are never in danger because of the solid command-and-control structure).

With public anger fully focused on Mr. Musharraf, the army overthrows him, deciding that he is an unbearable liability to the institution. In the end, the military partially withdraws to the barracks so it can focus on defeating the multiple insurgencies. But Pakistan’s institutions are torn, and the country is irreparably fractured. Once an emerging economy and transitional democracy, Pakistan remains a stagnant kleptocracy for years. And all this occurs because one man has sought a political transition on his terms.

There is a way out, however. Mr. Musharraf’s three major foreign benefactors – the U.S., Saudi Arabia and China – can give him an ultimatum: Resign from your two posts now (and enjoy a clean exit while it’s still possible) and restore the constitution within two weeks, or we’ll cut off your aid.

In the short term, civilian support for a comprehensive military campaign against terrorists should come with a promise by a post-Musharraf military to restore the constitution and pre-emergency courts, as well as free and fair national and provincial parliamentary elections operated by an independent election commission and supervised by international monitors.

Beyond that, Pakistan’s elite must work together to develop an efficient, constitutional and consensus-based distribution of labor among the military, democratically elected politicians and the judiciary. If these institutions perform their primary tasks in concert, Pakistan can for the first time have security, democracy and the rule of law.

Arif Rafiq is a policy and communications consultant and editor of The Pakistan Policy Blog (www.pakistanpolicy.com).

Copyright © 2007, The Baltimore Sun

• Musharraf suspends constitution, declares emergency rule, and imposes Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO)
  
• Transmission of news channels shut down in Pakistan
• Supreme Court Chief Justice sacked, arrested and replaced with Musharraf loyalist
• Over 1500 civilians arrested
• Senior figures jailed or house arrested:
  • Lawyers’ movement: Aitzaz Ahsan, Munir Malik, Ali Ahmad Kurd, Tariq Mehmood, Ikram Chaudhry, Syed Muhammad Shah, and Ahsan Bhon
    
  • Tehreek-e Insaf: Imran Khan (has reportedly gone into hiding after suggesting to AFP that Musharraf’s moves are treason punishable by death), Abdul Samad Shaikh, and Badar Soomro
    
  • PML-N: Javed Hashmi, Khawaja Asif, Afzal Gujjar, and Zahid Rafiq Butt
    
  • Human rights advocates: Asma Jehangir and I.A. Rehman
  • Ethnic politicians: Mehmood Khan Achakzai, Asfandyar Wali, and Hadi Bhat
    
  • Pro-jihadi voices: Hameed Gul
• Seven SC justices declare PCO unconstitutional [text of statement]
  
• PCO excerpt: “No court including the Supreme Court, the Federal Shariat Court, and the High Courts, and any tribunal or other authority shall call or permit to be called in question this Order.”
• State Department “deeply disturbed” by declaration of emergency rule
• Condoleeza Rice: ER is “highly regrettable”; Expressed opposition to emergency rule on Friday
• Benazir Bhutto returns to Karachi from Dubai
• Musharraf’s address to nation:
  • Inaction would be suicide for Pakistan
  • Need balance of powers between three branches of government;
  • Judiciary superseded its role and stifled counterterrorism efforts
  • All assemblies, chief ministers and governors will remain in place
  • Compares his extraconstitutional moves to those of Abraham Lincoln during U.S. Civil War
    
• Two new ordinances censoring media content
• Mushahid Hussain opposes emergency rule; Says 20 out of 25 members of Musharraf’s inner circle voted for emergency rule
• Live Pakistani television available on our site
• Texts of Emergency Proclamation, Provisional Constitutional Order, and State Department statement below
• NYT: CENTOM Chief Adm. William Fallon yesterday “told General Musharraf and his top generals in a meeting here that declaring emergency rule would jeopardize American financial support for the Pakistani military.”
• Pentagon spokesperson: No U.S. plans to suspend military aid to Pakistan
• Shaukat Aziz: Elections could be delayed for up to a year; 500 “preventative” arrests made
• Condoleeza Rice: U.S. will review aid to Pakistan
  
• Updates posted below

Pakistan’s ‘tumultuous two weeks‘ has begun with a bang. A state of emergency has been declared by Pervez Musharraf. He is expected to address the country at approximately 11PM Pakistan Standard Time/2PM New York.

The constitution has been suspended and the country is being run under a Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO). Seven judges of the Supreme Court — along with the media, a primary target of the constitutional suspension — have declared the PCO unconstitutional. Musharraf has sacked Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and another justice, Abdul Hameed Dogar (pictured on the left) — a Musharraf loyalist — has taken the oath to replace him. At this point, Dogar has only been joined by 3-4 other justices. Similar developments are occurring with provincial high courts.

The army has taken control of the Supreme Court, surrounded the buildings of major news stations, and arrested or detained many politicians. Cable television operators have been ordered to shut the transmission of news channels. Some Pakistani channels (such as GEO), broadcast out of Dubai and so they are available to viewers not utilizing Pakistani cable (e.g. Internet/satellite in and outside of Pakistan).

In his proclamation of emergency (full text below), Musharraf — identifying himself as chief of army staff, not president — cites the rising violence in the country as the basis for his imposing martial law. However, the text holds the judiciary most culpable for the rise in violence. It lambastes them for allegedly encroaching upon the territory of the legislative and executive branches, stating, “Whereas some members of the judiciary are working at cross purposes with the executive and legislature in the fight against terrorism and extremism, thereby weakening the government and the nation’s resolve and diluting the efficacy of its actions to control this menace.”

But it lists a litany of other alleged unrelated offenses by the judiciary, including: “interference by some members of the judiciary in government policy, adversely affecting economic growth.” Here and elsewhere in the text, they are referring to the Supreme Court’s opposition to the privatization of Pakistan Steel Mills, among other acts. Today’s events, therefore, extend beyond terror — even by Musharraf’s own admission. The declaration of emergency rule are a challenge to the separation of powers and independence of the judiciary.

Yesterday, I wrote that by mid-November, “we might find out what lessons [Musharraf has] learned from the strife of the past year. “

I asked: “Will he conclude that the solution involves not a greater centralization of power but an efficient distribution of labor between the military, popular civilian politicians, and the judiciary? Will he conclude that his greatest threat is not the country’s civilian politicians or judiciary, but vigilantees who cut off the heads of Pakistani soldiers and incinerate civilians in the streets?”

We apparently have our answers in advance. The answers seem to be, quite sadly, “No” and “No.”

UPDATE: 2:40PM – Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has returned to Karachi from Dubai. Her plane is currently on a tarmac at Karachi’s Quaid-e Azam International Airport. Approximately 100 security personnel have surrounded her Karachi home. It is unclear as to whether she will be sent abroad, arrested or detained, or permitted to travel somewhat freely.

UPDATE: 2:42PM – List of arrested or detained political, judicial, and social figures:

• Iftikhar Chaudhry (Supreme Court Chief Justice);
• Aitzaz Ahsan (People’s Party Senator and President of the Supreme Court Bar Association);
• Imran Khan (President, Tehreek-e Insaaf);
• Various Baloch and Sindhi nationalist leaders.

UPDATE: 2:48PM – U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice tells CNN that Musharraf’s declaration of emergency rule is “highly regrettable.”

UPDATE: 2:50PM – Musharraf is addressing the country on the state-run Pakistan Television (PTV). Address is simulcast on non-news channels.

UPDATE: 2:53PM – Musharraf’s address: Today’s events are the result of Pakistan’s internal discord. Says his guiding consideration for whatever action he has and will take is “Sub se pahlay Pakistan” (Pakistan first).

UPDATE: 2:55PM – Musharraf’s address: Terror attacks are widespread. In major cities across Pakistan. Terrorists don’t fear law enforcement agencies. They’re very confident. They’re in settled areas, such as Swat. Even in Islamabad, “the heart of Pakistan…the capital of Pakistan.” Militants have created a “government within the government” challenging the writ of the central government.

UPDATE: 2:57PM – Musharraf’s address: State of governance is “semi-paralysis.” Government officials have been “dishonored” by the judiciary. There are over 100 suo moto cases in the Supreme Court. Law enforcement agencies have been “demoralized.” Why? Because their officers have been charged, suspended, or convicted by the judiciary. As a result, they have been immobilized out of fear of punishment.

UPDATE: 3:00PM – Musharraf’s address: Describes three stages of his rule. First stage (1999-2002), Pakistan was a failing state when he took over. He was in total control in the first stage. In the second stage (2002-2007), he “oversaw” a transition to civilian, democratic governance. This was the first time Senate, National Assemblies, etc. lasted their entire time. Now we’re in the last stage of this transition — the third stage — in which there would be a complete return to civilian rule. He says he sought national reconciliation, but for political and other reasons, some have sought to obstruct this process in its final stages — the final few months.

UPDATE: 3:04PM – Musharraf’s address: There has been a great downturn. Foreign investors have slowed down their investment in Pakistan. The quality of life has improved over the past five years. Infrastructural development, airports, railways, mobile telephones, etc. are now spreading. In the social sector, primary and and secondary and higher education have been improving — but is afraid the advances of the past seven years will be washed away.

UPDATE: 3:06PM – Musharraf’s address: He says foreigners have been calling him in recent weeks, asking him what’s going on in Pakistan, as the uncertainty and instability rises. Says to that “some television channels” and “some television programs” have contributed to national uncertainty. He says this is the media that “I gave independence to.” “The media should be independent, but should be responsible.”

UPDATE: 3:09PM – Musharraf’s address: He asks, “Why are we in this situation?” Blames it on “judicial activism.” Says the judiciary has trampled upon the executive and legislative branches and that this began when he referenced the Supreme Court Chief Justice on March 9. Says he wasn’t personally involved in that.

UPDATE: 3:16PM – Musharraf’s address: Goes into detail about the recent rise of the militants — including into the heart of Islamabad. Says the government took action against them after patient deliberation. Says the courts subsequently freed individuals definitely involved in terrorism. Says they could have been involved in recent terror attacks. Says the courts ordered the re-opening of madrasas training militants.

UPDATE: 3:23PM – Musharraf’s address: My brothers and sisters…what is happening to this country? Where are we going? How do we curb this downside movement? Need a balance of powers between the three pillars of state — the judiciary, legislative and executive.

UPDATE: 3:25PM – Musharraf’s address: In order to complete the third phase, need emergency rule. No change in government. Prime ministers, governors, and chief ministers will remain in office. All the assemblies will remain in place.

UPDATE: 3:27PM – Musharraf’s address: Speaks in English now. Says he wants to speak to the world and “particularly to our friends in the West, the United States, the European Union, and the Commonwealth.” “I would ask you to kindly understand the criticality of the environment inside and outside Pakistan. Pakistan is on the verge of destabilization. If not arrested in time now, without any further delay, what saddens me most is that after all what we have achieved, I see in front of my eyes, Pakistan’s upsurge taking a downward trend. I personally, with all my conviction and with all the facts available to me. I consider that inaction at this moment is suicide for Pakistan and I cannot allow this country to commit suicide. Therefore, I had to take this action in order to preserve the democratic transition which I initiated eight years back…..I request you all to bear with us. To the critics and idealists against this action, I would like to say, please do not expect or demand your level of democracy, which you learned over a number of centuries. We’re also trying to learn and we’re doing well. Please give us time. Please also do not demand your level of civil rights, human rights, civil liberties which you’ve learned over centuries….Please give us time.”

UPDATE: 3:35PM – Musharraf’s address: He then reads a passage from a text on Abraham Lincoln’s suspension of habeus corpus during the civil war. Then he reads from a letter written by Lincoln, “My oath to preserve the constitution imposed on me the duty of preserving by every indispensable means that government that nation of which the constitution was the organic law. was it possible to lose the nation and yet preserve the constitution? by general law life and limb but be protected but often a limb must be amputated to save a life…i felt that measures otherwise unconstitutional might become unlawful by becoming indispensable to the right or wrong I assumed this wrong and now avow it.” Musharraf says, “We are also learning democracy. We are going through a difficult stage. It is the nation that is important. Pakistan comes first. Anyone else’s considerations comes after Pakistan. With all my sincerity, whatever I’m doing is in the interest of Pakistan.”

UPDATE: 3:37PM – Musharraf’s address: Ends address by returning to Urdu and stating that the people of Pakistan are agitated by the uncertainty will confront the nation’s challenges together.

UPDATE: 3:40PM – Benazir Bhutto has left Karachi airport and is on her way home to Bilawal House in Karachi’s Clifton area.

UPDATE: 3:47PM – Musharraf has issued two new ordinances affect the print and electronic media “prohibiting them to publish or broadcast statements that abet terrorist activities or terrorism.”

UPDATE: 3:53PM – Benazir Bhutto is holding a press conference right now. Reads Musharraf’s statement and says “this is not emergency rule” but martial law. Says martial law must be ended and the constitution must be revived immediately. Says she returned from Dubai immediately after learning that television transmission was being cut off in Pakistan. Expressed her solidarity with the rest of Pakistan’s political parties.
UPDATE: 4:03PM – Mushahid Hussain, secretary general of Musharraf’s Muslim League faction (PML-Q), tells the Washington Post of his opposition to the imposition of emergency rule, terming it “de facto martial law.” The Post says, “He said he had repeatedly tried to persuade the president against the measures in recent days but was outvoted within Musharraf’s inner circle.” Hussain says Musharraf “convened a meeting of his top advisers on Wednesday to discuss their options and that 20 of 25 were in favor of emergency rule.”

UPDATE: 4:15PM – Aitzaz Ahsan, president of the Supreme Court Bar Association and People’s Party senator, speaks to ARY One World from a police station bathroom. He refers to Musharraf as a “spoiled brat” and a “bad loser.” Says he’s arrested under a “maintenance of order” provision. [Video]

UPDATE: 8:02PM – Benazir Bhutto says, in an interview with NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, “we would like to protest the imposition of martial law, and we would like to raise our voices for the restoration of democracy. So we’re going to be meeting together to discuss the most effective ways of doing that.”

UPDATE: November 4, 2007 — 12:45AM - GEO reports that opposition figure Javed Hashmi and 10 other PML-N figures have been arrested in Multan.

UPDATE: 1:04AM – A Pentagon spokesperson says, “At this point, the declaration does not impact on our military support for Pakistan’s efforts in the war on terror.”

UPDATE: 1:26AM – Out of Pakistan’s three major Urdu news channels — GEO, ARY One World, and AAJ — only the latter beams exclusively out of Pakistan. Both GEO and ARY One World, for events like yesterday’s, made the wise decision years ago to transmit from Dubai’s Media City. Their main studios are also located there. As a result, they are still broadcasting to those who can receive their signal — satellite and Internet viewers. AAJ, unfortunately, is entirely Pakistan-based and to top it off, its broadcasting studios were raided by security officials and much of their equipment was confiscated. Their Karachi studios were targeted during the violence coinciding with the Chief Justice’s ill-fated visit to the city in May.

UPDATE: 2:45AM – Imran Khan, previously under house arrest, has been taken to Koh Lakhpat Jail, according to Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaaf. This comes after his many interviews with the Pakistani and foreign press, including one with the AFP in which he is quoted as suggesting that Musharraf has committed treason punishable by death.

UPDATE: 3:24AM – GEO reports that former ISI Chief Hameed Gul has been arrested.

UPDATE: 3:45AM – AAJ TV is back on air (available here), but like other channels currently permitted to broadcast in Pakistan, is broadcasting non-news and non-political content. But this site states that it had Ret. Judge Wajihuddin Ahmed on the air.

UPDATE: 3:58AM – AAJ TV seems to have been taken off the air again.

UPDATE: 4:19AM – Tariq Fatemi, a retired senior Pakistani diplomat tells GEO that U.S. and Western capitals’ public reaction with feature an “expression of regret and expectation of improvement”, but privately, it will be business as usual. He says their primary interests in Pakistan are three-fold: 1) The war on terror; 2) Continuation of military campaigns along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border; 3) Ensuring Pakistan’s help in a war against Iran.

UPDATE: 4:36AM – AAJ is back on the air. Another religious show is on.

UPDATE: 12:24PM – Geo reports that Asfandyar Wali, head of the Awami National Party, is under house arrest.

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STATE DEPARTMENT STATEMENT [Link]

“The United States is deeply disturbed by reports that Pakistani President Musharraf has taken extra-constitutional actions and has imposed a state of emergency. A state of emergency would be a sharp setback for Pakistani democracy and takes Pakistan off the path toward civilian rule. President Musharraf has stated repeatedly that he will step down as Chief of Army Staff before re-taking the presidential oath of office and has promised to hold elections by January 15th. We expect him to uphold these commitments and urge him to do so immediate. The United States stand with the people of Pakistan in supporting a democratic process and in countering violent extremism. We urge all parties to work together to complete the transition to democracy and civilian rule without violence or delay.”

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TEXT OF EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION (PDF)

ISLAMABAD, Nov 3 (AFP): This is the full text of the proclamation of the emergency:

PROCLAMATION OF EMERGENCY

Whereas there is visible ascendancy in the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks, including suicide bombings, IED explosions, rocket firing and bomb explosions and the banding together of some militant groups have taken such activities to an unprecedented level of violent intensity posing a grave threat to the life and property of the citizens of Pakistan.

Whereas there has also been a spate of attacks on state infrastructure and on law enforcement agencies;

Whereas some members of the judiciary are working at cross purposes with the executive and legislature in the fight against terrorism and extremism, thereby weakening the government and the nation’s resolve and diluting the efficacy of its actions to control this menace;

Whereas there has been increasing interference by some members of the judiciary in government policy, adversely affecting economic growth, in particular;

Whereas constant interference in executive function, including but not limited to the control of terrorist activity, economic policy, price controls, downsizing of corporations and urban planning, has weakened the writ of the government; the police force has been completely demoralized and is fast losing its efficacy to fight terrorism and Intelligence Agencies have been thwarted in their activities and prevented from pursuing terrorists;

Whereas some hard core militants, extremists, terrorists and suicide bombers, who were arrested and being investigated were ordered to be released.

The persons so released have subsequently been involved in heinous terrorist activities, resulting in loss of human life an property. Militants across the country have, thus, been encouraged while law enforcement agencies subdued;

Whereas some judges by overstepping the limits of judicial authority have taken over the executive and legislative functions;

Whereas the Government is committed to the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law and holds the superior judiciary in high esteem, it is nonetheless of paramount importance that the honourable Judges confine the scope of their activity to the judicial function and not assume charge of administrations;

Whereas an important constitutional institution, the Supreme Judicial Council, has been made entirely irrelevant and non est by a recent order and judges have, thus, make themselves immune from inquiry into their conduct and put themselves beyond accountability.

Whereas the humiliating treatment meted to government officials by some members of the judiciary on a routine basis during court proceedings has demoralized the civil bureaucracy and senior government functionaries, to avoid being harassed, prefer inaction;

Whereas the law and order situation in the country as well as the economy have been adversely affected and trichotomy of powers eroded;

Whereas a situation has thus arisen where the government of the country cannot be carried on it

Accordance with the constitution and as the constitution provides no solution for this situation, there is no way out except through emergent and extraordinary measures;
And whereas the situation has been reviewed in meetings with the Prime Minister, governors of all Provinces, and with chairman joint chiefs of staff committee, chiefs of the armed forces, vice chief of army Staff and corps commanders of the Pakistan army;

Now, therefore, in pursuance of the deliberations and decisions of the said meetings, I, General Pervez Musharraf, Chief of the Army Staff, proclaim emergency throughout Pakistan.

I hereby order and proclaim that the constitution of the Islamic republic of Pakistan shall remain in abeyance.

This Proclamation shall come into force at once.

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TEXT OF PROVISIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER

Text of Provisional Constitution Order

ISLAMABAD, Nov 3 (APP) – Following is the text of the Provisional Constiotution Order issued on Saturday:

PROVISIONAL CONSTITUTION ORDER

In pursuance of the Proclamation of the 3rd day of November, 2007, and in exercise of all powers enabling him in that behalf, the Chief of Army Staff under the Proclamation of Emergency of the 3rd day of November, 2007, is pleased to make and promulgate the following Order:-

1. (1) This Oder may be called the Provisional Constitution Order No. 1 of 2007.

(2) It extends to the whole of Pakistan,

(3) It shall come into force at once.

2* (1) Notwithstanding the abeyance of the provisions of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, hereinafter referred to as the Constitution, Pakistan shall, subject to this Order and any other Order made by the President be governed, as nearly as may be, in accordance with the Constitution:

Provided that the President may, from time to time, by Order amend the Constitution, as is deemed expedient;

Provided further that the Fundamental Rights under Articles 9, 10, 15,16,17,19 and 25 shall remain suspended.

(2) Notwithstanding anything contained in the Proclamation of the 3rd day of November, 2007, or this Order or any other law for the time being in force all provisions of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan embodying Islamic injunctions including Articles 2t 2A, 31, 203A to 203J, 227 to 231 and 260 (3) (a) and (b) shall continue to be In force.

(3) Subject to clause (1) above and the Oath of Office

(Judges) Order, 2007, all courts in existence immediately before the commencement of this Order shall continue to function and to exercise their respective powers and jurisdication.

Provided that the Supreme Court or a High Court and any other court shall not have the power to make any order against the President or the Prime Minister or any person exercising powers or jurisdiction under their authority.

(4) All personi who immediately before the commencement of this Order were in office as judges of the Supreme Court, the Federal Shariat Court or a High Court, shall be governed by and be subject to the Oath of Office (Judges) Order, 2007, and such further Orders as the President may pass.

(5) Subject to clause (1) above, the Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) and the Provincial Assemblies shall continue to function.

(6) All persons who, immediately before the commencement of this Order, were holding any service, post or office in connection with the affairs of the Federation ox of a Province, including an All Pakistan Service, Service in the Armed Forces and any other Service declared to be a Service of Pakistan by or under Act of Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) or of a Provincial Assembly, or Chief Election Commissioner or Auditor General shall continue in the said service on the same terms and conditions and shall enjoy the same privileges, if any, unless these are changed under Orders of the President.

3, (l) No court including the Supreme Court, the Federal Shariat Court, and the High Courts, and any tribunal or other authority shall call or permit to be called in question this Order, the Proclamation of Emergency of the 3rd day of November, 5007, the Oath of Office (Judges) Order, 2007 or any Order made in pursuance thereof.

(2) No judgment, decree, writ, order or process whatsoever shall be made or issued by any court or tribunal against the President or the Prime Minister or any authority designated by the President.

4. (]) Notwithstanding the abeyance of the provisions of the Constitution, but subject to the Orders of the President, all laws other than the Constitution, til Ordinances. Orders, Rules, Bye-laws, Regulations, Notifications and other legal Instruments in force in any part of Pakistan, whether made by the President or the Governor of a Province, shall continue in force until ltered, amended or repealed by the Preaidont or any authority designated by him.

5. (I) An Ordinance promulgated by the President or by the Governor of a Province shall not be subject to any limitations as to duration prescribed in the Constitution.

(2) The provisions of clause (1) shall also apply to an Ordinance issued by the President or by a Governor which was in force immediately before the commencement of the Proclamation of Emergency of the 3rd day of November, 2007.

• November 6: Earliest date for Supreme Court ruling on Pervez Musharraf’s re-election eligibility
• November 7: Possible date for Nawaz Sharif departure of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia for London
• November 8: Benazir Bhutto expected to return to Pakistan from Dubai
• November 8: Supreme Court to receive report from Sindh government on Bhutto blasts
• November 9: Bhutto to hold rally in Rawalpindi
• November 15: Musharraf’s presidential term expires
• ~ November 15: Nawaz Sharif returns to Pakistan?
• Ongoing: Waziristan insurgency
• Ongoing: Swat clashes
• Ongoing: Suicide attacks across the country targeting senior military officials, civilian leaders, and military convoys and installations

Pakistan’s short-term volatility will continue, at the very least, till late January to early February. By then — if things go as scheduled — a new, shaky governing coalition will have formed after fresh parliamentary elections.

There are multiple variables — national, provincial, local, regional and global — that could end up shaping Pakistan’s fate in the near-mid term.

As such, the uncertainty is widespread — going all the way to the top in both Islamabad and Washington. But what is clear is that the next two weeks will feature events of paramount significance for Pakistan.

The most important date on the calendar is November 15, which is when Musharraf’s current presidential term expires. Musharraf pledged that, if re-elected as president, he’ll resign from the army, vacate the position of chief of army staff (the most powerful position in the country), and take his second term oath as a civilian.

Musharraf has already been re-elected, but his candidacy remains contested. It’s an asterisked victory similar to Barry Bonds’ breaking of Hank Aaron’s home run record.

In a ruling as convoluted as Pakistan’s constitutional history, the Supreme Court permitted presidential elections (conducted via an electoral college) to go on with Musharraf on the ballot, but deferred deciding on his eligibility to run. Their subsequent ruling on his eligibility, which hasn’t been made yet, will be retroactive. If they decide in the negative, Musharraf will — according to Pakistan’s constitution — remain as president until his successor is elected.

The Supreme Court was originally expected to make a decision by today. During the week, Musharraf’s camp put out suggestions in the media that emergency rule could be imposed. This would give the president license to subvert the current constitutional restrictions and time tables imposed on him — though some elements in Musharraf’s circle stated that the election schedule and most press freedoms would remain unaffected.

Most likely, the emergency rule chatter was merely a means to pressure the judiciary to not only produce a decision favorable to Musharraf, but also in the desired time frame. Supreme Court Justice Javed Iqbal replied that the court won’t be impacted by such threats. Indeed, the Court went even further, announcing yesterday that lawyers’ arguments have taken longer than expected and should a decision not be reached on Friday, proceedings would resume on November 12. Their curious explanation for the week-long delay: a justice will be unavailable due to his daughter’s wedding.

Benazir Bhutto apparently took the threat seriously, albeit briefly. She postponed her trip to Dubai as a result, but then surprised many when she left for Dubai yesterday. The reasons for the change in her decision are unknown, but curiously half a day later, Condoleeza Rice issued a statement opposing the imposition of martial law in Pakistan. In other words, Bhutto likely had assurances from Rice before her departure that Washington wouldn’t tolerate emergency rule.

After Rice’s statement, the Supreme Court changed course, announcing today that it will continue deliberations on Monday and Tuesday. After staving off Musharraf’s pressure tactics and perhaps receiving indirect support from Washington, the court could produce a final decision as early as Tuesday.

The court is expected to rule in Musharraf’s favor. Still, Musharraf would like greater breathing room — a comfortable window in between the court’s verdict and the end of his first term.

More imminent than the latter is the potential departure of Nawaz Sharif from Saudi Arabia. Sharif could return to London as early as Wednesday – and possibly try to return to Pakistan the following week.

Meanwhile, Bhutto expects to return to Pakistan by Thursday the latest and address a rally in Rawalpindi on Friday. Bhutto could address the rally virtually by phone or tape recording, but regardless the Pindi rally is highly significant. Firstly, Rawalpindi the seat of the Pakistani army and neighbors Islamabad. Secondly, it’ll mark her first entry into Punjab (Pakistan’s largest province), which will unsettle her greatest political rivals — the Chaudhry cousins of the PML-Q party. The PML-Q is already concerned about losing partial or total control nationally to Bhutto’s PPP. A serious challenge in Punjab, which they govern, by Bhutto’s party would be an existential threat for them politically.

Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N is expected to have a strong showing in Punjab. It has a wider, more natural support base in the province than the Chaudhries’ PML-Q. It could also welcome PML-Q defectors sensing the turning of the tide. An assertive Punjab campaign by the PPP could further eat up the Chaudhries’ spoils, leaving them with little more than Gujrat. In this scenario, they could conceivably pair up with the PML-N or PPP in a coalition, but the odds of them playing dirty are unfortunately greater.

Musharraf (and Pakistan as a whole) faces a tough two weeks. The political-legal uncertaintity and boiling tensions in Waziristan and Swat, combined with the wave of suicide attacks against the armed forces and senior leaders (including Benazir Bhutto and CJCS Gen. Tariq Majeed) across the country, will crescendo.

While emergency rule is highly improbable, Musharraf could issue and utilize an ordinance that would enable the army to court martial and detain civilians indefinitely and without charge. The ordinance would likely be advertised as targeting militants, but there is a strong possibility it could be used against political opponents. If promulgated, the Supreme Court will likely receive petitions against its constitutionality. Still, the Supreme Court has proven to operate slowly as it is overwhelmed with high-profile cases. This could give Musharraf’s government a decent window in which to make use of the ordinance before it is knocked out.

The next two weeks will be a difficult test for Musharraf. At its end, we might find out what lessons he’s learned from the strife of the past year. Will he conclude that the solution involves not greater centralization of power but an efficient distribution of labor between the military, popular civilian politicians, and the judiciary? Will he conclude that his greatest threat is not the country’s civilian politicians or judiciary, but vigilantees who cut off the heads of Pakistani soldiers and incinerate civilians in the streets? Perhaps we’ll see on November 15th.

If the stakes weren’t so high, the segment of above could simply be seen as an exercise in stupidity. But with U.S. engagement with Pakistan at perhaps an all-time high, both countries entering important political transitions and facing multiple intersecting security threats, the laughter should perhaps be followed by tears.

Richard Miniter, a right-leaning polemicist cum-”expert on terrorism,” appeared on the Fox News Channel’s Hannity and Colmes show Friday night (the second highest rated cable news program in the U.S.) to discuss the attempted Bhutto assassination. While the print media has extensively quoted Pakistan and South Asia specialists, H&C decided in favor of the author of related (and quite fair and balanced!) books, “Losing bin Laden: How Bill Clinton’s Failures Unleashed Global Terror” and “Shadow War: The Untold Story of How Bush is Winning the War on Terror.”

Producers at the most popular cable news network in the United States decided it was best for a partisan hack to brief the American public on an already critical country that recently experienced a monumentally important event. Miniter proved to informed viewers (if there were any) that he was ignorant of Pakistan save for a Wikipedia entry he perhaps skimmed before coming on the show.

Here’s a re-cap of his misadventure into Pakistani history:

Ludicrous Statement No. 1: Former Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was killed “partly for corruption, but also because of political dissatisfaction.”

Correction: Though corruption is endemic in Pakistan’s politics, Z.A. Bhutto was executed after being convicted (in a questionable trial) of ordering the extrajudicial killing of a political opponent. Are corruption and political dissatisfaction grounds for execution anywhere? It’s like saying JFK was assassinated because of his extramarital affairs.

Ludicrous Statement No. 2: Next, Miniter stated that if Benazir Bhutto “stayed in her home in Morristown, NJ,” Friday’s carnage “wouldn’t have happened.”

Correction: First, let me just say that Benazir staying out of Pakistan for security reasons is a slippery slope. If she decided to postpone her return and the threats continued, her self-exile would perhaps be never-ending. BB can, however, be faulted for actions taken after her return: having an absurdly long procession and a mediocre security detail surrounded by untrained young boys who literally were guarding her with their bodies and nothing else.

But where in the world does Miniter get that BB has a home in Morristown, NJ? The Harvard and Oxford graduate has assets that, in some estimates, exceed a billion dollars. She inherited leadership of a Sindhi feudal family and Pakistan’s largest political party. Her main homes are in expensive areas like Dubai and Karachi’s Clifton area. There’s also her family feudal home in Larkana, and she presumably has access to her husband’s luxury condo in Manhattan. So why would a landed, Ivy League educated, two time prime minister of Pakistan have a home in a middle class town in central Jersey?

Ludicrous Statement No. 3: Alan Colmes, the program’s meek co-host, decided to get into the mix and asked Miniter of Benazir, “Didn’t she make a deal with Karzai to come back and have some kind of a unity government?”

A puzzled Mintier asked, “With Karzai of Afghanistan?”

Colmes attempted to correct himself, “Ah, uh I’m sorry, with Sharif.”

Mintier scored a point, informing Colmes that Pakistan’s ruler is “Musharraf.”

Ludicrous Statement No. 4: Miniter reverted back to old form, stating that Pervez Musharraf, “siezed power from Sharif, who was the same member of Benazir’s political party and that political party was suspected in the 1990s of taking money from al-Qaeda.”

Correction: Nawaz Sharif leads an altogether different party — his own faction of the Pakistan Muslim League. Sharif is a center-right politician, a Punjabi businessman. Bhutto is a center-left politician and a Sindhi feudal. They fiercely competed against one another throughout the 1990s and the bitterness remains. Miniter’s statement would be similar to saying that Hillary Clinton and George W. Bush are part of the same political party. I won’t even get into the al-Qaeda comment.

Ludicrous Statement No. 5: Mintier topped it off with this gem: “And so really the people of Pakistan have the choice between Islamists, either radical or not, and corrupt Marxists… there isn’t much of a political debate despite those ends of the political spectrum.”

Correction: Wow. Marxism fizzled in Pakistan in the 1950s. Perhaps it re-emerged in the late 1960s into the 1970s, but the tendency were co-opted by Bhutto’s People’s Party, a populist social democratic party that was overtaken by feudals not too long after its founding. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and rise of Zia bid adieu to Marxism for good.

The three major centers of power in Pakistan are Musharraf’s liberal authoritarianism and center-left and center-right quasi-democratic parties. Islamists are on the second tier along with liberal constitutionalists. Marxists are not even on the radar. That’s like calling Hillary Clinton a Marxist — wait, some already do.

Ludicrous Statement No. 6: Mintier: “even now when he [Musharraf] flies, he flies [with] a foreign air crew and foreign security force protects him, not Pakistanis…”

Correction: This is a case of the ‘Musharraf is threatened from within’ paradigm gone mad. He’s no Karzai. Pakistan is no Afghanistan. Plain and simple.

Ludicious Statement No. 7: Guest co-host Mark Steyn asked, “Who’s going to be able to re-assert Pakistani sovereignty over [Waziristan]?” Then he followed by asking, “Why don’t we just go in there when we have to?”

PS: The Fox News Channel appears on many cable television providers in Pakistan.