The Pakistan Policy Blog

Statements from the People’s Party (PPP) indicate that Asif Zardari has secured enough votes to win Saturday’s presidential election.  His party seems more focused now on cushioning his vote count so as to suggest he was a consensus candidate.

A Zardari presidency is not the worst thing for Pakistan.  But it’s certainly not the best.  Far from it.  If and once Zardari secures the presidency, he will effectively control that office and the premiership.  That’s far too much power for a party that hasn’t even secured a majority federally or in most other provinces, including Punjab, the largest.

Moreover, Zardari is an intellectual lightweight and thoroughly unprepared to deal with Pakistan’s major challenges.  A year and a half ago, he was estranged from his wife, living in a Central Park apartment, and spent his days loitering around or playing with his dog, Maximilian.  Now this underachiever–he meagerly passed through high school and did not attend college–will become president of the world’s sixth largest country.

There are far better candidates.  Perhaps a dozen more.  The only reason why Zardari is becoming president is because of the political realism of those who support him.  They recognize who’s boss.  It’s Zardari — by default.  But 60 years of Pakistan’s history demonstrate that sycophants and others ride the coattails of a rising potentate and–just as quickly–abandon him (or her) when the summit has been reached.  The fall is never graceful.  Pakistan absorbs most of the blows.

If the president were directly elected by the people, Zardari would lose handily.  If he is beloved by any, it is by default.  His wife was murdered; his son is a teenager.  There is, for the PPP base, no present alternative.  For Pakistan’s majority, Zardari is a plunderer, dim-witted, and deceitful.  If he is a “symbol of the federation,” as the president should be, then he is a symbol of the federation’s decay.

A Zardari presidency is not necessarily the end of the world for Pakistan.  If he falls victim to habit, it could be.  But it can be positive for Pakistan if Zardari submits to the constitution, restores his office to its nominal status, does not obstruct his opponents or the judiciary, and rises (as best he can) above partisanship.

It does not look good.  Zardari is pulling tricks from the old playbook.  Let’s hope it’s just political posturing.  If it’s not, Zardari should read a book or two.  In Pakistan, only generals get safe exits.

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