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Senate Chairman Muhammad Mian Soomro has become the interim president of Pakistan after the resignation of Pervez Musharraf.

[Interestingly, Barack Obama, eager to boost his foreign policy credentials, can note that he met Soomro decades ago.  Obama befriended Soomro's son and stayed at their family home in Pakistan during college.]

Soomro, a Musharraf loyalist and Monopoly Man lookalike, will remain president for a month or so–till an electoral college consisting of parliament and the provincial assemblies elects a permanent replacement by a simple majority.

The potential presidential candidates are many.  Below is a list of candidates mentioned in the Pakistani media.

ZARDARI & FAMILY

Asif Ali Zardari

Feryal Talpur

Azra Fazal Pechucho

Asif Ali Zardari, People’s Party co-chairman and Benazir Bhutto’s widower, has expressed interest in the presidency.  But such a move could be seen as a blatant power grab.  Zardari would then be the locus of public anger–especially if he takes the presidency and opposes a reduction in the office’s powers.  He has said that the next president would be a PPP loyalist.  Recently, he said the next president could be a woman.  Many see this as an inference to one of his sisters, Feryal Talpur or Azra Fazal Pechuho.  In such a scenario, Zardari would control the premiership and presidency indirectly.

POLITICIANS FROM SMALLER PROVINCES

Attaullah Mengal

Asfandyar Wali

Mahmood Khan Achakzai

Pakistan has faced challenges managing interprovincial relations and inter-ethnic harmony.  Presently it has a prime minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, from Punjab.  Gilani is a Seraiki speaker and can be seen as a fine balance between a Punjabi and Sindhi).  Many in Pakistan have suggested the appointment of a Baloch or Pakhtun as president.  Balochistan is the least integrated province in Pakistan’s federation and home to a bloody insurgency.  Attaullah Mengal, a leading Baloch notable and politician, has been noted by some talking heads as a worthy candidate.  But his positions on provincial autonomy are unpalatable for most Pakistanis, particularly its military.

Others have pushed forward the names of Pakhtun politicians Asfandyar Wali and Mahmood Khan Achakzai.  Like Mengal, they have troubled relations with Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment.  Their appointment would require some political gymnastics and compromise.

RETIRED, ‘NON-COMPROMISED’ JUDGES

Wajihuddin Ahmed

Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui

In order to placate the lawyers’ movement or secure the presidency’s titular status, some have suggested the appointment of a retired judge.  Most notable nominees include Wajihuddin Ahmed and Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui.  The latter name, I have heard, has been proposed by the PML-N.  Both judges refused to take the oath under Musharraf’s 1999 Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) and retired instead.

NATIONAL HEROES

Abdul Qadeer Khan

Abdul Sattar Edhi

In a campaign speech, Nawaz Sharif pledged to nominate nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan for the presidency.  His statement was likely just political pandering.  Khan’s upgrade from house arrest to the presidency is inconceivable.  But rightists and Islamists love him.

Another potential candidate is Abdul Sattar Edhi, a leading humanitarian in Pakistan.  But Edhi has recently many pro-Musharraf statements and strongly criticized Sharif and Zardari, thus making the likelihood of his appointment low.

PRO-ESTABLISHMENT FIGURES

Salmaan Taseer

Jehangir Karamat

At the moment, the president heads the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA), which controls Pakistan’s nukes, and is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.  As a result, the military-intelligence establishment would be keenly interested in who replaces Musharraf.

Salmaan Taseer, presently the governor of Punjab, is someone who would be amenable to both the PPP and the military-intelligence establishment. The name of Jehangir Karamat, a former chief of army staff, was mentioned on television today.  But Karamat, like Taseer, has had a rocky relationship with Nawaz.  The appointment of either one of them would push Sharif closer toward the opposition benches.  Taseer is socially liberal while Karamat was Pakistan ambassador to the U.S.  Both would also be very palatable to Washington.

POPULAR/ANTI-MUSHARRAF POLITICIANS

Aitzaz Ahsan

Imran Khan

Raza Rabbani

Then there are politicians that have taken a strong anti-Musharraf stance and could be ‘rewarded’ with being ‘crowned’ president.  Most notable among them include Aitzaz Ahsan and Imran Khan, both of whom did not run in the recent elections.  Appointing them could reintegrate these individuals and their ‘constituencies’ into the political process, boosting support for the government.  Aitzaz’s relations with Zardari, however, are troubled.  And Imran is seen as a nuisance by mainstream politicians.  A more probable candidate from this pool could be Raza Rabbani, a leading PPP senator who managed to maintain a strong pro-lawyers movement and anti-Musharraf stance, while being loyal to Zardari.

NON-PPP GOVERNING COALITION LEADERS

Fazlur Rehman

Nawaz Sharif

Finally, the coalition government can decide to choose a candidate from the PML-N, JUI-F, and ANP.  Such individuals include the aforementioned Asfandyar Wali, as well as Fazlur Rehman and Nawaz Sharif.  Fazl has reportedly long fantasized about becoming president or prime minister.  But his Taliban ties definitely count him out.  He could be pacified with another Land Cruiser.  Zardari will have to control Fazl’s blind ambition, as Musharraf had done.

Sharif is a possible candidate.  He’s currently barred from elected office.  That could be undone if and when the deposed judges are restored.  But he’s also unable to serve as prime minister because of a two-term limit.  It could take time for that to prohibition to be removed.  Sharif could be given a soon-to-be diluted presidency, while Zardari takes the premiership for himself.  Would he fall for that?

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CONCLUSION

The electoral college (described in the intro) makes possible a multiple set of voting alliances for the presidential elections.

Possible majority-attaining voting blocs include:

1. PPP + PML-N;
2. PPP + PML-Q;
3. PML-N + PML-Q + Smaller parties + Independents;
4. PPP + ANP + JUI-F + MQM + Independents.

This means that the PPP and PML-N don’t have to work together to choose a president.  But that would endanger the governing coalition.  A controversial candidate could produce an opposing alliance of antagonistic parties. Pakistan’s best best is for the governing coalition to choose a non-controversial person who will be content with a reduced portfolio.  For its next president, Pakistan needs a symbol that will help unite it in a time of increasing fragmentation.

• 03:06AM – New York: Musharraf will speak in a few minutes and he still has everyone guessing as to what course he will take.  Pundits note his volatile nature and commando background.  Musharraf has reportedly even kept close allies in the dark.  Phenomenal.  The context is as dramatic as his first speech after his 1999 coup as well as the address he gave minutes after an assassination attempt.
• 03:15 – Musharraf begins speaking.  Describes the state of the country in 1999, when he took over.
• 03:19 – He says the challenges Pakistan has faced in the past almost nine years are probably the greatest in its history, including socioeconomic challenges, conflict with India, and 9/11.
• 03:20 – He says that some have put their personal interests above national interests and have leveled unfounded allegations toward him.
• 03:24 – He says he wants to present some truths before the public and will release a paper before the public regarding the economy.  The economy was fine as of 2007.  Foreign reserves were abundant.  Stock exchange index was high and the exchange rate was stable.
• 03:25 – He says Pakistan was just one level below the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).
• 03:26 – He says that that in the past 7-8 years, energy demand increased dramatically; Pakistan was unable to match supply with demand increase.  But the energy demand increase was the product of massive economic growth.
• 03:30 – The present challenges can be overcome.  Calls on the government to look to the future, find solutions for problems, and improve Pakistan.
• 03:34 – Notes some infrastructural gains during his tenure, including: M1 (Islamabad-Pindi), M3 (Lahore-Faisalabad), and the Karachi Bypass.  Says he pushed forward with the development of dams, which stalled prior to his rule.  Adds this will irrigate huge amounts of newly arable land.
• 03:36 – Highlights a “telecom revolution,” “massive industrialization,” the creation of jobs, and attraction of foreign investors.
• 03:37 – Claims to have addressed literacy and technical education, and initiated joint projects with foreign universities.  Massive funding for Ph.D students.
• 03:40 – Says he implemented programs for water purification and empowering women.  A three pronged strategy that included empowering women politically (e.g. via reserved seats) and combating legal discrimination (e.g. honor killings).
• 03:41 – Notes his cultural development initiatives, such as the National College of Arts, National Academy of Performing Arts, and various museums, galleries, and monuments.
• 03:43 – Claims his local government program bridged the gap between policy formulation and implementation.  Says those who attack this program inflict harm on Pakistan.
• 03:45 – Says no one listened to Pakistan before 1999.  Now its voice is heard and viewed as important.
• 03:47 – In respect to law and order, says he increased police training and equipping.  Says hooded,  Kalashnikov-toting crowd was eliminated, but after 9/11 terrorism grew.
• 03:50 – Says he never followed a policy of revenge.  Instead, pursued a three-phased transition to democracy.   The third phase came last year with his resignation from the army.  Next, was followed by the February elections and transition of power in a positive manner.
• 03:53 – Says after the elections, the people had certain hopes from their elected representatives.  Unfortunately, his reconciliation overtures were rejected.  Says his efforts failed.  Some individuals played politics with terrorism and the economic situation.  Rather than understanding, they chose the path of confrontation and pursuing vendettas.   Says they claimed he was waging a conspiracy from the presidency, and this was baseless.  He says he made possible and guaranteed free and fair elections in February.  If he wanted to wage a conspiracy, why would he allow these free and fair elections?
• 03:55 – Says he publicly announced his support for the government and offered to share his experience developed over the years, but the coalition viewed him as a problem, not a solution.  Now they want to impeach him.  Why?  Because of his constitutional rights/powers?  Or because they want to hide their past and future mistakes?  It is within parliament’s right to level a charge sheet and it is also within his right to defend himself.  “No charge sheet can stand against me….What I did, was for Pakistan first.  Pakistan before all….All decisions were made with consultation.  All stakeholders were taken on board for all issues….whether they were the military…politicians…bureaucrats…or religious scholars.”  Says he can respond to all allegations in the charge sheet with “full certainty.”
• 04:01 – “Can the nation tolerate more confrontation?  Can the nation’s economy take more pressure?  Can the nation handle an impeachment process?  Is this a wise decision?  I think this is not a time for individual bravado….regardless of whether I win or lose impeachment, the country will lose….Pakistan is my love.  My first love.”
• 04:03 – Wonders whether he should do something.  But does not want to lengthen this period of uncertainty.  “Even if impeachment is defeated, the government’s relations with the presidency will still never be fine.”
• 04:04 – “As a result, considering this entire situation, after consulting legal advisors, political supporters, and taking their advice…I have decided to resign.”
• 04:06 – He says he did all he could.  But he is a human and the people will judge him in the future.
• 04:08 – “My prayer is that the government curbs this down slide.”  Says, “Today, I am completely happy that I leave a vibrant media.”
• 04:10 – “My heart was crying, concerned for the direction of the country….Where are we going?…How will the world view us?”
• 04:11 – “Even right now, our macroeconomic situation is sound.  We need to re-rail what has been derailed.”
• 04:13 – Thanks the armed forces of Pakistan.  Says they gave him respect and loyalty.  He says he will never forget that.  He says the salutes the Pakistan Army for the bravery and love of country with which the Army it has served Pakistan.  (Salutes with hand)
• 04:15 – Thanks his political and non-political allies, bureaucrats, and his loyal staff.  Says he can never forget what they did for him.
• 04:16 – Says he’s a middle class guy.  He’s among/one of the people.  He feels their life difficulties.
• 04:18 – Prays that God secures Pakistan, protects it from conspiracies (said very slowly and carefully), and eases Pakistan’s difficulties.  Says he will always be available/present for Pakistan.  He says, “Long live Pakistan” and “Khuda Hafiz Pakistan.”  Voice chokes as he raises his fists.  And so the story ends.

Aaj News’ Shaukat Piracha reports that Pervez Musharraf will address the nation at 1PM Pakistan Standard Time/3AM New York and make a major announcement.

Piracha says that he has received no confirmation that Musharraf will resign, but there are indications that he will do so.  Musharraf will tell his side of the story of the past year and a half.

GEO News’ Islamabad Bureau Chief Absar Alam reports Pervez Musharraf will address the nation today and could resign from the presidency.

In his initial report, Alam said that Musharraf will remain in Rawalpindi and receive legal indemnity.   In subsequent reports Alam said that Musharraf could announce his resignation on the principle that he will be given indemnity by the major political forces, guaranteed by friendly foreign powers.

Alam said the PML-N remains against indemnity. [There are, however, enough parliamentary votes from the PPP, PML-Q, MQM, and ANP to pass a law giving Musharraf indemnity.]

Newsweek reports, based on conversations with unnamed close aides (past and present) to Musharraf, that:

“Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is expected to resign Monday and fly into exile in Saudi Arabia, where he is to remain for the next three months, a former aide to the president has told NEWSWEEK on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.”

The reporters, Ron Moreau and Fasih Ahmed, are pretty good.

Moreau has been covering Pakistan for quite some time and teams up with some of Pakistan’s best journalists.

Ahmed has been writing for Pakistani and U.S. publications for several years.  He has also written many pro-Musharraf opinion columns in the Daily Times.  He’s involved in his family business, the Associated Group.  His father, Iqbal Z. Ahmed, is a prominent businessman and very close to Musharraf.  In fact, he has served as a negotiator for Musharraf and was recently accused of trying to buy defections from the PPP.  So Fasih’s personal connections could provide access to Musharraf’s inner circle.  And while a Musharraf partisan would promote the idea that the president is still putting up a fight, even if he were not, Ahmed instead does the exact opposite, lending credibility to the piece.

Aaj Television reports that Pervez Musharraf has agreed to resign by Sunday afternoon.

This comes as part of a deal with the coalition government, secured by the Saudi intelligence chief Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz, who visited Pakistan today and met with Musharraf, Nawaz Sharif, and Shujaat Hussain.

As part of the deal, the Musharraf will not be prosecuted. Musharraf will also abstain from speaking to the media for 3-4 months and will not obstruct the government’s functioning.

It’s unclear as to whether Nawaz Sharif is on board.

Saudi intelligence chief Muqrin bin Abd al-Aziz just departed Pakistan, after flying in for meetings with Pervez Musharraf, Nawaz Sharif, and Shujaat Hussain.

Nawaz is currently playing hardball with Musharraf — when there is a consensus among major power brokers in and outside Pakistan that the president’s resignation is a fait accompli.

Earlier reports indicated that Nawaz consented to resignation and a safe exit. So his reversion to a harder stance is likely a negotiating tactic over a particular element of a resignation + indemnity deal.

It could be that Nawaz does not want Musharraf to reside in Pakistan after leaving office; the goal would be to ensure he is out of the political process and has to experience what he did during his own exile.

Update: 12:56PM – Aaj TV reports that the Saudi intelligence chief has secured a deal between the coalition government and Pervez Musharraf. The president will resign from office by Sunday afternoon.

Highlights:

• There is a conspiracy against Pakistan’s state institutions waged by internal and external forces.
• The nation and the army are one and inseparable.
• National reconciliation is necessary for political stability.
• Greatest challenges are terrorism, extremism, and socio-economic.
• No announcement of resignation.

GEO News is currently covering three independence celebrations in Pakistan:the Army’s in Kakul, and the prime minister and president’s in Islamabad (held separately).

Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani gave his first truly public address.  He said:

“I would like to reiterate that Pakistan desires to co-exist in peace with its neighbors and beyond.  A peace with honor and dignity, and azaadi (freedom) with grace.  This can only be guaranteed from a position of strength. Remember eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.”

As the Musharraf era comes to a close, it seems as if Gen. Kayani realizes he must fill the void to some degree — especially in a time in which he and his colleagues feel strategically encircled.  Gen. Kayani, I think, is telling Afghanistan and India — and even the United States — that he’ll play hardball if he has to.

The smoking man isn’t so cryptic afterall.

Photo Credit: Nauman Khawaja