Aug 30, 2008
Ramadan Reprieve for Militants and Zardari
Pakistan’s de-facto interior minister Rehman Malik announced that his government will suspend military operations in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas for the month of Ramadan till the end of the Eid holiday (August 31st to October 2nd).
This ceasefire could provide the 260,000+ internally displaced persons from the Bajaur Agency an opportunity to return to their homes (in whatever shape or form they exist in), though it’s unclear if the relative success of the Pakistani military there has produced a context in which they can return permanently.
Additionally, the cessation of violence could provide the militants with an opportunity to recoup their strength–though they incurred heavy losses in Bajaur, due to the military’s use of air power. On the flip side, it’s unclear as to how many civilian casualties were produced by the operations. Minimizing civilian casualties, aside from being a moral necessity, is also essential to a successful counterinsurgency strategy. There must be a clear moral difference between the insurgents and counterinsurgents in order to gain public support.
Finally, the ceasefire fulfills the demand of both Fazlur Rehman’s faction of the Jamiat-e Ulema-e Islam and parliamentrians from the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas–all of whom will play an important role in the electoral college that will choose Pakistan’s next president. Fazlu’s main concern is his demand for two cabinet posts and the governorship of Balochistan. The FATA stuff is to satiate his base and keep the militants off his back.
In short, the blessed month of Ramadan has provided the governing coalition, particularly the PPP & Asif Zardari, as well as the militants a blessing in disguise.
[...] Ramadan Reprieve for Militants and Zardari [...]
It’s bad move by Rahman Malik.
Given the history of ceasefires/peace deals with the Taliban, I fully expect that they will use the hiatus to regroup and rebuild to unleash a new, unprecedented reign of terror on the streets of Pakistani cities after Eid.
I agree with you, Riaz. In all likelihood, the Taliban will deliver a bloody set of Eid presents to the Pakistani people. Rehman Malik has said that the security forces will resume operations if provoked. But I think the return of the Bajaur residents back home has been too hasty. What if they have to flee again? Also, the relief/rehabilitation operation for them has also been meager. Not good signs on that front.
As for the militants, they are not ones to have respect for any norms. I fail to see why they should be offered some sort of relief for Ramadan.
there is a petition being signed by some ppl an a neighborhood which is dominated by MQM, secretly .a letter that the ppl of the area have arranged for the sindh government , i don,t really know the details but it context say that the ppl of that area are sick of these mqm workers commiting all kind of cimes and no body is to catch them so it says if the government doesn,t do any thing they will reaquest the taliban to come and ridf the area of these criminals.. what an irony han lol in the end after all this ppl feel saver by taliban then government and especially mqm since altaf hussain told all his killers to buy guns and get ready but yet there is not one person in this coutry to say any thing abt it .. good job ppl.
in fact, the militants are split over the reprieve also. the ones in swat said that since all months are holy (really? didn’t seem to affect their agenda) the ceasefire is useless. and the spokesman for the TTP, maulvi omer, welcomed the ceasefire. which makes me immediately convinced that it is a terrible idea. it also makes me suspicious that the TTP has backing from within the Pakistani establishment. it makes no sense why the army would back off now that they have the militants on the run. especially since the refugees would be forced to flee once more once the campaign inevitably resumes after eid, if not before.
sometimes you feel like you could wish these problems away, but i guess they are the product of our ‘amaal’
Pakistan is almost bankrupt
Poor is suffering the most
Indian extremist hindu’s are killing many in Pakistan via Afghanistan.
But all the politicians are only worried about getting some kind of ministry.
Even free media can not see and did not see this coming. All they cared was judge issue and now they forgot about judge issue while country went down.