Pakistan’s governing coalition has announced that they will proceed immediately with moves to impeach Pervez Musharraf from the presidency.

People’s Party Co-Chairman Asif Zardari read out a joint statement in which he said that the National Assembly will be called on August 11 to begin impeachment proceedings.  He said the deposed judges will be restored as per the Murree Declaration after the impeachment.  But in a reply to a question, Zardari did not clarify as to whether the judges would be restored via an executive order or constitutional package.  He seemed to insinuate the latter.  The Muslim League – Nawaz will rejoin the cabinet.

Musharraf views the situation as serious.  He will not be attending the Beijing Olympics, announced Pakistan’s Foreign Office.  In his place will be Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani.

The response from the media, as well as the Pakistani public, is skeptical and rightfully so.  The two major party heads, Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari, have gone to the brink many times and only to press the ‘reset’ button when mutual and public confidence dwindle.

There are a few reasons to be optimistic.  One, there was a joint press conference and Zardari read the statement.  In other words, Zardari and the PPP are ‘owning’ the statement.  Two, the PPP’s negotiating team consisted of its membership, Raza Rabbani and Sherry Rehman, who have been more representative of the February 18th mandate.  Rabbani, in particular, has been stridently anti-Musharraf and pro-judiciary.  At the same time, he has not antagonized Asif Zardari.

Though the declaration was clear, many questions remain:

• Will the governing coalition follow through on its promises?  All of them or just some?
• Has there been a compromise on the judges issue?
• Do they have enough votes to impeach?
• How long will the process take?
• Impeachment is akin to a trial.  What will Musharraf be charged with?
• Will Musharraf resign before or during the impeachment proceedings?  Or will he fight?  What weapons will he use?  Article 58(2)B?  The stock market and currency pressure?  He’s met with his political allies and legal advisers, including Sharifuddin Pirzada.
• Is the Army willing to let go of Musharraf?  The Corps Commanders met this morning.
• Have Washington, Riyadh, and Beijing given their consent?
• Will the ANP and JUI-F, as Sheikh Rashid says, complicate things by tacking on their respective primary concerns?
• What will happen if the impeachment proceedings go through, but enough votes are not secured?  Will the judges still be restored?  Will the PML-N still rejoin the cabinet?
• Will there be dissenters from the PPP and PML-N?  Amin Fahim met with the PML-Q’s Hamid Nasir Chatta yesterday.  In a TV interview, Fahim defended the president and repeated Musharraf’s mantra of “Pakistan first.”  Though he could be a paper tiger, it appears that if the pro-impeachment camp has the numbers to impeach, it will be by a thin margin.  Every vote from the governing coalition matters.

It’s all unclear.  But there is a decent chance that by August 14th, Pakistan’s independence day, Pakistanis might become free of Pervez Musharraf.