Earlier today, Nawaz Sharif briefed a PML(N) leadership meeting discussing his talks with Asif Zardari.  Sharif said that they agreed that a resolution for restoring the deposed judges will be put before parliament on May 12.

Later, Law Minister Farooq Naik of the PPP addressed the media and stated that the resolution for restoring the judges and the judicial “reform” package will come together.  As I wrote yesterday, the two parties would be holding separate press conferences about their joint agreement and one should look for differences in their narratives.  [Naik also met with Abdul

The two narratives are not contradictory.  Sharif’s is just incomplete and somewhat disingenuous.

Sharif is accurate when he says the judges will be restored via a resolution, not a constitutional package.  But, once that resolution passed, the constitutional package will be pushed through parliament.  And when Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry returns to his chambers, he’ll find his authority significantly diminished.  So Chaudhry will be restored to his November 2nd status–for a few hours or days.

On a related noted, there seems to be some significant changes emerging from the Musharraf camp.

One, leadership changes will probably be made in the PML(Q), a Pervez Musharraf-allied party.  Pitbulls (the Chaudhry cousins) will be replaced with less pugilistic politicians (e.g Hamid Nasir Chatta, Mir Zafrullah Jamali, Faisal Saleh Hayat, and Farooq Leghari). GEO News reports that Sheikh Rashid could replace Mushahid Hussain as secretary general of the PML(Q).

Two, GEO News also reports that Musharraf has informed the PPP that he’s conceded to the restoration of the judges.  He’s also discussing ‘voluntarily’ giving up his right to dissolve the National Assembly, i.e. the powers under article 58(2)(b).

Time Magazine has released its list of the 100 most influential people.  There are two Pakistanis: Ashfaq Kayani and Baitullah Mehsud.

Nawaz Sharif left his talks with Asif Zardari with a large grin on his face. And unlike Zardari, he spoke to the media. He had something he wanted to say, namely: the deposed judges will be restored by a National Assembly resolution, not a constitutional package.

If this verbal promise becomes a reality, Sharif can tell the Pakistani electorate that he fulfilled his campaign commitment to restore the judges to their November 2nd status. And it could pave the way for his (and/or his brother’s) return to electoral politics, as well as the departure of Pervez Musharraf. Nawaz’s smile was revealing, but the joy could be fleeting. Many, many questions remain.

There was and will be no joint press conference. In other words, both parties will not be standing together to re-assert their commitment to a judicial restoration and ‘reform’ plan. Sharif will speak to the press tomorrow in Lahore. Zardari’s press conference in Karachi will follow. Will this new agreement become a ‘he said, he said’ drama? Even if the two offer the same story, there remains the question of whether Zardari will follow through.

And even if he does, there are many obstacles in the way. The present Supreme Court could move to block their restoration. Or, a National Assembly resolution could be passed with a simple majority and a consensus could ‘emerge’ that such a move has no binding status, even if it is followed by an executive order.

Even if the judges are restored to their November 2nd status, how long they will remain in that condition? In other words, what will the constitutional package contain?

Sharif likely had to make some compromises in this regard. And we’ll learn of them in the coming days.

Some concessions will be more manageable than others. Sharif does not want to put himself at odds with the lawyers’ movement. It’s far easier if Zardari gets to absorb their scorn.

Sharif, and to a lesser extent, Zardari, would benefit from a time gap between the restoration of the judiciary and the introduction of a constitutional package that limits its powers. Once the judiciary is restored, there are greater chances the public will be willing to accept some curbs on its power. Sharif would lose out if Abdul Hamid Dogar remains as chief justice or if Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry’s tenure would end this summer. Having Iftikhar as CJ for at least a year would be workable. Keeping Iftikhar around for more than a few months likely means he’ll have to let go of his suo moto powers.

Notes:

• Musharraf and Kayani: Arif Nizami, editor of The Nation, said on Live with Talat that Pervez Musharraf and Gen. Ashfaq Kayani “are not on the same page.” Imtiaz Alam differed, stating that the differences between the army and Musharraf are not strategic, but tactical. He rightly noted that Pakistan’s political trajectory could be toward a dangerous bifurcation–something which I alluded to in my previous post–in which the PPP falls into the “lap of the army” and the PML(N) is compelled to ally with the Jamaat-i Islami.
• On the same program, Najam Sethi made an interesting prediction: Musharraf will accept Iftikhar Chaudhry as chief justice. Today, Mush and Chaudhry will co-exist. Tomorrow, neither Musharraf, nor Chaudhry will be in their respective posts.