PML(N) leader Nawaz Sharif wasn’t educated at Oxford, but he’s playing politics smartly. Today, he announced that his party will submit its resignation from the federal cabinet tomorrow, though it will continue to support the government. And a few hours ago, he unexpectedly submitted his papers for the upcoming by-elections.

So what’s Sharif doing? He’s strategically distancing himself from the PPP with a measured protest against the latter’s refusal to reinstate the deposed judges in the agreed manner and time frame.

Sharif’s party can, in the coming weeks, return to the government or completely sever ties with the PPP.

His party’s resignation from the government permits the PPP to proceed on its own course vis-a-vis the judges. Absence from the government provides the PML(N) with plausible deniability should the judges be ‘restored’ but restricted.

If the public finds the PPP’s judicial ‘reforms’ palatable, then Nawaz can return to the government.

But, if they don’t, he can say that he had nothing to do with this and, despite his best efforts, the judges were not restored.

There’s another important influence on Sharif’s decision-making. He’s currently being sidelined by a number of parties. Many, including the Bush administration, hope for a Zardari-Musharraf coalition consisting of the PPP, ANP, PML(Q), MQM, and JUI(F).

Sharif is being pushed out toward the rightists, such as the Jamaat-i Islami. That’s something he can resist if Pakistan’s civil society and the general public backs him.

In fact, Sharif might have the last laugh. A Zardari-Musharraf marriage will not be happy. The PPP’s coalition with smaller parties excluding the PML(N) will be much shakier. All members will be tainted by their association with Musharraf and Zardari. And Zardari will become increasingly reliant upon Pakistan’s so-called establishment as well as foreign benefactors.

And so that’s why PML(N) central committee members urged Sharif to run for the National Assembly. Ostracization will be difficult for Sharif, but might work well for him in the longer term.

If he’s permitted to run (strong chance his papers will be rejected by the Musharraf-appointed election commission), then he could pave his way toward becoming head of the opposition. Who will he be opposing? The loveless multi-party coalition led by Pervez Musharraf and Asif Zardari, whose negative ratings are extremely high.

Zardari has significantly (re)discredited himself, the PPP, and the democratic process in recent weeks. And in the past few days, he and de-facto interior minister Rehman Malik have flirted with strong-arm tactics to intimidate the media. Totally mindless. It’s one thing to politically align with Musharraf. Emulating his behavior is politically suicidal. And Sharif could be the last man standing with honor and credibility en tact.