So here we are, once again. Different city, but same story. Well, story of.

The (latest) deadline to restore the deposed judges is imminent. Today, Asif Zardari will meet Nawaz Sharif, in London, to ‘resolve’ their differences. Like the previous deadline, the present one could be similarly disregarded. Like last week, the onus to move/decide is on Sharif, not Zardari. Like last week, Zardari can afford inaction. Like last week, Sharif needs to come out with something tangible. But after last week’s charade, one can only view any agreement between the PPP and PML(N) very cynically.

The political tectonics continue to shift decidely in Zardari’s favor. He has made it clear to Sharif that he has other options. Indeed, after meeting Sharif, Zardari will visit none other than the man who put ‘don’ in London: Altaf Hussain.

As the judges’ issue stretches on, Sharif can periodically come out with guarantees from Zardari, but he will also increasingly have to strike a greater bargain.

Sharif will likely get his judges restored. But it looks like he’ll have to accept a constitutional package that essentially negates the judges’ restoration. The deposed judges will be outnumbered by pro-Musharraf judges and restricted in their powers. The court of Iftikhar Chaudhry, it seems, has come to an end.

The minus-one formula could also be revised. Chaudhry could stick around for a year or two, shackled in his chambers and effectively eliminated. But a minus-three formula could emerge, with two more Chaudhries–the additional two being from Gujrat.

Zardari could accept the Musharraf-allied PML(Q) as a coalition partner if it sheds Shujaat Hussain and Pervaiz Ellahi. The Chaudhries might put up a fight but they could also be Shaukat Aziz’d, i.e. made the scapegoats for the previous government’s failures. The new PML(Q) could form a coalition government with the PPP in Punjab and join the government in the center. Or, at the very least, it could stand there in reserve to let Sharif know he’s expendable, and be for the PPP what the JUI(F) was for Musharraf: the not-so-oppositional opposition. The PML(Q) forward bloc could also then return ‘home’ or stay in limbo to yield maximally from their ‘independence.’

Also, Sharif will probably have to accept Pervez Musharraf as president. Weeks ago, Defense Minister Ahmed Mukhtar described Musharraf as “cashable.” In recent days, Zardari basically repeated the same idea in somewhat more dignified terms. Seems like he’ll be around for a while.

Zardari wants to be the daddy of one large, happy family. But at some point, his political polygamy has a limit, requiring a divorce. He’s leveraged the Musharraf-Sharif rivalary to his advantage, gaining concessions from Musharraf and at the same time rehabilitating his image by holding hands with Nawaz. This balancing act will be difficult to continue.

Finally, it would be a mistake to confuse Zardari’s ascendancy for invulnerability. In fact, he could be guilty of such confusion himself. His appearance on Shahid Masood’s Meray Mutabiq has helped revert his public image to the old, negative one. In the eyes of many Pakistanis, the new Zardari has become the old Zardari again. They find an uncanny similarity between between the Musharraf, Tariq Aziz, and Malik Qayyum team and Zardari, Rehman Malik, and Farooq Naik. The response, or lack thereof, of the Pakistani public remains to be seen.