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Zardari’s Moving, But Where?

Asif Zardari will most probably be in the driver’s seat, officially, within a few months.

This weekend, he announced that he’ll run for parliament in the June by-elections. More importantly, he told BBC Urdu that he’ll become prime minister “if necessary,” giving himself wide latitude to make a push for the premiership in the summer.

In recent months, Zardari has appointed loyalists to key positions, including: Rehman Malik (de-facto interior minister), Fehmida Mirza (National Assembly speaker), Zulfiqar Mirza (Sindh home secretary), and Farooq Naik (law minister). He’s pushed out Amin Fahim, who would be less willing to vacate the post of prime minister than Yousaf Raza Gillani. Zardari has progressed considerably toward consolidating his control over the PPP.

Zardari’s behavior, in this respect, has been quite methodical. But there are questions that remain regarding his future intentions.

The Judges
Zardari alternates between committing to the restoration of all the deposed judges and lambasting them as too “political” and unwilling to come to his aid. So what’s the purpose of the self-righteousness? Is it to create an opening for the “minus one” formula, i.e. restoring all the judges except Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, or a constitutional package that would reduce their powers? Or does Zardari simply seek to apply ‘moral’ pressure publicly on the judges, putting them on the defensive, thereby indirectly ensuring they will operate to his favor?

The Future of Musharraf
Pervez Musharraf has been making concession after concession to Zardari (e.g. dropping all corruption and murder cases, eliminating the graduation requirement). So, what does Zardari owe Musharraf in return? A Manhattan condo with a nice view of Central Park? Or a couple more years as defanged president?

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement
A previous round of talks with the MQM broke down. The party was not represent in the first cabinet induction phase. But the federal and Sindh cabinets are expected to grow ad infinitum, creating future opportunities for the MQM to join the government. Zardari, however, has been speaking softly while carrying a big stick. His party’s government has taken steps to bring back to politics the Muhajir Qaumi Movement (Haqiqi)–the rival of Altaf Hussain’s Muttahida Qaumi Movement.

The Muslim League-Nawaz
All these questions deeply involved the PML-N, which has been committed to the judges’ restoration, opposed to Musharraf, and hostile toward the MQM. Zardari’s been playing big tent politics to an extent. But his tent is near its occupancy limit. Either some inside will have to be removed or the door will need to be shut.

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