Pakistan’s election commission announced the schedule for by-elections for the national and provincial assemblies. The polls will be held on June 3rd.

Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif are expected to run, respectively, for a seat in the national and Punjab provincial assembly. They registered for the 2007-8 elections, but their papers were rejected due to previous convictions.

With the same courts, election commission, and legal barriers in place, one can expect an identical decision this time. Yet, their electoral rejection would seem to say that the ‘new republic’ differs little from the ‘ancien regime’. It would also complicate ties between the PPP and PML-N.

Will the Sharifs have to make some compromises in order to return to elected office? Will they have to accept the minus one formula (which restores all judges except Iftikhar Chaudhry), provide Asif Zardari assurances that the National Reconciliation Ordinance will go unmolested, or agree to keep a somewhat defanged Musharraf in power?

It’s not clear. But it is reasonable to assume that such matters have already been discussed, though not necessarily finalized, in talks between the PML-N and PPP. Still, time is running out for the Sharifs. The election commission will accept nomination papers from tomorrow till April 21. The papers will be scrutinized from April 22-28. Appeals will be accepted till May 2. Final decisions will be announced on May 9.

Expect to see some rumbling over this next week.