Both Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif plan on running in the by-elections this May. It appears that Asif Zardari will not, but this is by no means certain.

All three face potential roadblocks to election. For Zardari, there is the graduation requirement. A Musharraf-era constitutional amendment requires elected officials to hold a bachelors degree. That Zardari really holds an undergraduate degree is under question. However, this issue could be moot if Zardari’s proposed judicial reform package repeals the degree requirement or he decides not to run for a National Assembly seat.

The Sharifs are also barred from politics due to a previous conviction post-Musharraf’s 1999 coup. The National Reconciliation Ordiance benefited the late Ms. Bhutto, Zardari, as well as a host of Musharraf’s allies (including some bankers and Muttahida Qaumi Movement figures), but does does not apply to the Sharifs. The Election Commission rejected their nomination papers for the recent elections. Preventing them from doing so would require further compromise between the PPP and PML-N, or even the PML-N and Pervez Musharraf.