On November 3, 2007, Pervez Musharraf imposed emergency rule and deposed the chief justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. He also effectively deposed a set of independent television journalists, two of whom are Nusrat Javed and Mushtaq Minhas. The pair hosted a debate and call-in show, Bolta Pakistan (Pakistan Speaks), that clearly was disliked by Musharraf & Co.

Javed had not appeared on television till last week, when he was a guest on Aaj Television’s [not] Live with Talat [Hussain]. The satellite transmission of AAJ TV was suspended for a few hours upon Javed appearing.

Today, Live with Talat is broadcasting live again with none other than Nusrat Javed and Mushtaq Minhas as guests. The program’s audio faded several times during the show’s first half, including once when Javed was speaking. My suspicions were confirmed when, in the show’s second half, Talat made an articulate appeal to Pakistan’s cable operators to stop interfering with the voice of Javed, who noted that the people of Pakistan, ironically, were given their right to voice themselves in Monday’s elections, but he’s still being gagged.

Pakistan’s private media, particularly Aaj TV, will continue to push back for a restoration of press freedoms as they sense the tide turning against Musharraf.

Senior People’s Party figure and lawyers’ movement leader Aitzaz Ahsan just completed a press conference. He said the restoration of the deposed judges, including Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, is the elections’ “unfinished business.” Chaudhry, said Ahsan, remains Pakistan’s Supreme Court chief justice. He vowed to hold a “long march” to Islamabad if the judges are not restored by March 9th.  The judges can be restored by an executive decree, said Ahsan.

Ahsan has made a concerted effort to paint the late Benazir Bhutto as equally supportive of the pre-November 3rd judiciary as he has been–despite the fact that she publicly asked him to decide between the PPP and Iftikhar Chaudhry. He did, however, state yesterday that the People’s Party could have fared better in the elections if it actively pursued the judiciary issue.
People’s Party Co-Chairman Asif Zardari has actively worked to bring Ahsan back into the PPP’s fold. It’s unclear as to whether his pursuit of the judicial cause–specifically the restoration of the deposed judges (Zardari only called for their release)–will occur parallel to, in clash with, or in harmony with his role in the People’s Party. Will Zardari call for the judges’ restoration too? He might be cornered into doing so as a result of the strong public calls from party member Aitzaz Ahsan and Nawaz Sharif of potential ruling coalition partner PML-N.

Finally, it should be noted that Ahsan dropped out of the elections to demonstrate his solidarity with the pro-judiciary cause. As a result, he has no parliamentary seat. Despite being part of the lead party in the future governing coalition, Ahsan will likely be active in the streets with his fellow lawyers. Will he have to make a choice against between the PPP and Iftikhar Chaudhry?

In his Wisconsin victory speech, likely Republican presidential nominee John McCain attacked probable Democratic nominee Barack Obama as being weak on foreign policy and Pakistan played a bit of a role.

McCain’s eyes are now set on the general election and part of his campaign strategy is to present himself as having the “judgment,” “experience”, and “strength of purpose” to defend national security and the spread of American ideals.   He describes “radical Islamic extremism” as “the greatest evil, probably, that this nation has ever faced.”  McCain’s early offensive could put Obama on the defensive, bringing foreign policy and national security back to the forefront.

Just minutes ago, McCain stated that “political change in Pakistan is occurring that might effect our relationship with a nuclear armed nation that is indispensable to our success in combating al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and elsewhere.” A vote for Obama, said McCain, can push into office “the confused leadership of an inexperienced candidate who once suggested bombing our ally Pakistan.”

Over a week ago, President Bush made a similar attack on Obama, stating, “The only foreign policy thing I remember he said was he’s going to attack Pakistan and embrace Ahmedinejad.”

In reality, Obama never proposed attacking the state of Pakistan. He said, “If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won’t act, we will.” In other words, Obama would attack terrorists on Pakistani soil–a serious violation of Pakistani sovereignty, but not an attack targeting the state of Pakistan.

Moreover, both Bush and McCain criticize Obama for proposing something the Bush administration is already doing: attacking al-Qaeda and Taliban targets without the approval of the Pakistani government.

Robin Wright and Joby Warrick report in today’s Washington Post:

“Having requested the Pakistani government’s official permission for such strikes on previous occasions, only to be put off or turned down, this time the U.S. spy agency did not seek approval. The government of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was notified only as the operation was underway, according to the officials, who insisted on anonymity because of diplomatic sensitivities.

Officials say the incident was a model of how Washington often scores its rare victories these days in the fight against al-Qaeda inside Pakistan’s national borders: It acts with assistance from well-paid sympathizers inside the country, but without getting the government’s formal permission beforehand.

It is an approach that some U.S. officials say could be used more frequently this year, particularly if a power vacuum results from yesterday’s election and associated political tumult. The administration also feels an increased sense of urgency about undermining al-Qaeda before President Bush leaves office, making it less hesitant, said one official familiar with the incident.”

Aaj TV reports that the effective house arrest of Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and the other remaining deposed justices could be terminated soon by the Pakistani government.

People’s Party Chairman Asif Ali Zardari held a press conference around an hour ago. He accepted the election results and said his party will form a “national consensus ” government with “friends” who have accepted a set of stipulations.  He apparently listed only one of them, which was to push for a United Nations investigation of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. Zardari and other People’s Party officials previously dismissed the Scotland Yard report.

Benazir Bhutto’s widower said his first action would be the removal of the PEMRA ordinance imposed on November 3rd, which places restrictions on the private media and has barred specific news personalities from the camera. Last week, one of those journalists, Nursat Javed, appeared on Aaj TV and the Pakistani government suspended the channel’s satellite transmission for a few hours.

Zardari’s stated his broad goals are the restoration provincial autonomy and return of power back to parliament. He said he will take “soft, small steps.”  He will clearly pursue a more conservative path than Nawaz Sharif of the Muslim League, who’s called for Musharraf’s resignation and the restoration of the pre-November 3rd judiciary.  In contrast, Zardari has not called for Musharraf’s resignation.  He’s indicated before the elections that he’d be willing to work with Musharraf.  While Zardari demanded that the deposed judges and Aitzaz Ahsan be released, he fell short of requesting the restoration of the pre-November 3rd judiciary.

PPP and PML-N Sweep Polls

Aaj Television, a major Pakistani news channel, estimates that the leading opposition parties, the People’s Party (PPP) and Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), together will receive approximately 78% of the total parliamentary seats. If the estimate holds true, the PPP and PML-N will have the ability to impeach President Pervez Musharraf and amend the constitution. They could remove Musharraf, restore the deposed judiciary, repeal Musharraf’s constitutional amendments, and push for parliamentary supremacy. The two parties could form a national unity government together or compete against one another to form a government with the remaining parties–including the PML-Q.

National Assembly Seat Estimates by Aaj Television (Total – 272 Seats):

• PPP: ~110
• PML-N: ~100
• PML-Q: ~20-30
• MQM & Others: ~30

Provincial Assemblies Outlook:

• Punjab: PML-N, dominating the province’s north, central, and urban areas, is on top with a large lead.
• Sindh: PPP ahead with a strong showing. MQM trails behind.
• NWFP: ANP — a secular, ethnic party– strong in NWFP and wins in Swat, site of jihadi insurgency.
• Balochistan: PML-Q ahead followed by PPP.

Highlights:

Major PML-Q Losses: Party President Shujaat Hussain, National Assembly Speaker Amir Hussain, Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri, Railways Minister Sheikh Rashid, Hamid Nasir Chattha, Defense Minister Rao Sikander, Religious Affairs Minister Ijazul Haq, Sher Afgan Niazi, Danial Aziz, Humayun Akhtar Khan, and Ghulam Sarwar Khan. Sheikh Rashid has reportedly fled to Spain.

The Survivors: Pervaiz Elahi and Faisal Saleh Hayat, however, won respectively in NA-58 and NA-88.

Close Call for the Maulana: Maulana Fazlur Rehman (JUI-F) wins safe seat in Bannu (NA-26), but loses at home in Dera Ismail Khan.

The Turnout: Turnout, according to Sarwar Bari of the Free and Fair Elections Network, was approximately 35%.

Violence: 26 killed in poll-related violence.

Musharraf-Allied, Former Ruling Party Faces Major Losses

People’s Party and Muslim-League Nawaz Lead Nationally

Awami National Party Ahead in NWFP

Shujaat Hussain, Sheikh Rashid, and Amir Hussain Defeated

Polls officially opened in Pakistan at 8AM local time (10PM, Sunday in New York) and will close at 5PM (7AM, New York). The opening was delayed in many locations due to technical reasons or disputes over electoral rolls.

11:42AM (Islamabad)/01:43AM (New York): Turnout is reportedly low. But it’s early in the morning.

11:54AM (Islamabad)/01:55AM (New York): Blasts reported at three polling stations in Quetta. Hand grenades and other explosive material used. No one killed; two arrested.

12:07PM (Islamabad)/02:07 AM (New York): AAJ Television reports turnout is fairly high in Rawalpindi, but low in Lahore, perhaps due to recent terror attacks.

12:24PM (Islamabad)/02:24 AM (New York): High turnout in Sukkur, but some women going back home because of long lines. Turnout in Peshawar fairly low. Recent terror attacks there.

01:25PM (Islamabad)/03:25 AM (New York): DawnNews reports that militants have kidnapped polling agents in Bannu, NWFP (NA-26).

01:59PM (Islamabad)/03:59 AM (New York): GEO reports strong turnout in Nawabshah, Sindh. Pace should pick up somewhat elsewhere in the country into the afternoon as the temperature rises.

05:30PM (Islamabad)/07:30 AM (New York): Polling was to end at 5PM across the country, but seems to have been extended in some districts to encourage those that haven’t voted. Official results from some districts are coming in but very incomplete (e.g. 1/242 polling stations).

05:45PM (Islamabad)/07:45 AM (New York):

Turnout in previous Pakistan National Assembly elections:

• 43.07% (1998)
• 45.46% (1990)
• 40.28% (1993)
• 35.42 (1997)
• 41.8% (2002)

05:51PM (Islamabad)/07:51AM (New York): Suggestions of low turnout in Lahore. Could be high in Sindh, excluding Karachi and Hyderabad. If true, could fare well for PPP and not for PML-N.

06:01PM (Islamabad)/08:01AM (New York): Kamran Khan of GEO says the very preliminary results indicate the PPP ahead nationally with the PML-Q and PML-N nearly tied for second. In the NWFP, the ANP is doing better than in 2002. But the results coming in seem to be less than 1% per district.

06:01PM (Islamabad)/08:01AM (New York): Afrasiyab Khattak of the ANP seems pretty content with the elections proceedings, an indication of positive results for his party. Referred to turnout in NWFP as “slow, but steady.”

06:19PM (Islamabad)/08:19AM (New York): Pervez Musharraf said earlier today on the government-run PTV (in English) after casting his vote, “whoever [wins], I strongly believe that this politics of confrontation must give way to the politics of reconciliation….I myself with remain committed to a politics of reconciliation with everyone. Whoever is the winner, let them form government, let them run the government for five years, let them ensure the continuity of economic sustainability of this economic upsurge and let us continue to fight this scourge of terrorism more strongly beyond today’s elections.”

Order of PTV News Coverage: President Pervez Musharraf, Musharraf’s Wife and Mother, Interim Prime Minister Muhammad Mian Soomro, PML-Q President Shujaat Hussain, PML-Q Central Leader Pervez Ellahi, PML-N leaders Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif, PPP Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari, JUI-F Chief Maulana Fazlur Rahman, and PPP-S Chairman Aftab Sherpao. According to the Center for Civic Education, the PML-Q received more coverage on state-run television than the PPP and PML-N combined. The PML-Q also spent more on advertising than all other parties combined.

06:53PM (Islamabad)/08:53AM (New York): An analyst on the government-run PTV says that “in a hung parliament, Pakistan’s masses will be stronger.”

08:01PM (Islamabad)/10:01AM (New York): Official election results could be in at 9PM Islamabad/11AM New York.

08:48PM (Islamabad)/10:48AM (New York): The New York Times states turnout in the NWFP was around 20%.

08:58PM (Islamabad)/10:58AM (New York): First complete result is in: Yaqoob Bizenjo of the Balochistan National Party (BNP) wins in NA-272 — ironic, no? He defeats Zubaida Jalal, an independent formerly with the PML-Q, and four other opponents.

09:00PM (Islamabad)/11:00AM (New York): Najmuddin Khan of the PPP wins in NA-33.

09:40PM (Islamabad)/11:40AM (New York): Maulana Fazlur Rahman is losing by a wide margin in NA-24, but NA-26 seems like a safe seat for him.

10:32PM (Islamabad)/12:32PM (New York): The overall trends are leaning toward a strong showing for the PML-N in urban Punjab, the PPP in Sindh (outside of Karachi and Hyderabad), and the ANP in NWFP.

10:49PM (Islamabad)/12:49PM (New York): A GEO analyst makes an excellent point — the data could have an urban bias. Necessary to wait and see how the PML-Q does in rural Punjab where it has focused its campaigning.

Tuesday – 01:15AM (Islamabad)/Monday – 03:15PM (New York): Chaudhry Shujaat loses to Ahmed Mukhtar in hometown of Gujrat/NA-105.

01:44AM (Islamabad)/Monday – 03:44PM (New York): Aaj TV: PPP surge in southern Punjab?

02:19AM (Islamabad)/Monday – 04:19PM (New York): More PML-Q losses: Former National Assembly Speaker Chaudhry Amir Hussain and Danyal Aziz.

Managed Competition
Millions of Pakistanis will head to the polls today, ostensibly to select their federal and provincial representatives, who in turn will choose the new prime minister and chief ministers. Will their votes matter? To a certain extent, yes. These elections are an exercise in managed competition.

In many electoral districts, the voting public will genuinely decide the victor. Elsewhere, Pervez Musharraf & Co. will actively intervene, skewing the results in their own favor.

That the polls would be rigged was never really a matter of debate. The real questions have been and remain: to what extent will the polls be rigged and where? How far will Musharraf go? Who will lose most from the rigging? Will the rigging–to use one of Musharraf’s favorite military terms–be “surgical” or more of a “shock and awe” variety? If Musharraf opts for the former, he can perhaps stay afloat. If he overstretches, then he will likely be submerged by both the opposition and elements of the so-called “establishment.”

So what would surgical and shock and awe rigging look like exactly? They’re best differentiated by their byproducts.

Surgical rigging could do any number of the following:

• Prevent the opposition from gaining the 2/3 National Assembly majority necessary to impeach Musharraf and amend the constitution. The PPP, PML-N, and ANP could form a government together, yet be unable to reach the threshold above to fully challenge Musharraf. They would need the support of the JUI-F and independents, making these two segments much sought over.
• Balance out the PML-N and PPP, giving them equal opportunity to produce a government. This would pit them against one another and give particular weight to the Musharraf-allied PML-Q, making it a sought-after king maker.
• Have the PML-Q cede the center to the opposition, but form a government in Punjab, keeping it very much alive.
• Give the PPP its expected plurality, but put the PML-Q in second at the expense of the PML-N. The PML-N would cry foul, but with the PPP would be content with the elections, the PML-N’s objections would be dismissed as those of sore losers.

More ambitious, shock and awe rigging could do any number of the following:

• Give the PML-Q a plurality of seats and let it form a national government with the MQM, PML-F, and potential others.
• Significantly dilute the PPP’s share in Sindh, forcing it to pair with the MQM to produce a government there.
• Give the PML-Q a weighty position in a Balochistan and NWFP governing coalition.

Surgical rigging would serve two functions: prevent Musharraf’s opponents from ousting him, while keeping them involved in the political process so as to maintain the elections’ and next government’s legitimacy. Musharraf would fare better if he successfully divided the PPP and PML-N and facilitated their reversion to mutual antagonism.

Shock and awe rigging would put Musharraf’s allies in power and the PPP and PML-N into the streets. Musharraf, who has said he would repress post-poll protests, would likely be shown the exit by an Army unwilling to defend a massively rigged elections process. A new president and caretaker government would then likely schedule elections within a few months at latest.

Post-Election Maneuvering
The intrigue does not end when the last ballot is counted. The post-election period, in which a ruling coalition is formed if a single party fails to obtain a majority is as important as the pre-election and election periods. If the elections are accepted by the opposition (the People’s Party vote counts most), then the machinations for shaping the next government will begin.

Recall what happened after the 2002 elections. The PML-Q won a plurality of seats (almost 50% more than the second place PPP), but the PPP won the overall popular vote (which has little electoral value). It took a month for the PML-Q to get enough votes for its prime ministerial nominee, Zafarullah Jamali, and they obtained a slim majority (52%) through a coalition with the MQM as well as PPP defectors and a lot of exchanged money, favors, and threats. Even if there are no debilitating objections to the poll results, the process of forming a government will take a while and a wide variety of governing coalitions are possible.

Washington, as senior Pakistani journalist Nusrat Javed says, prefers a PPP + PML-Q government. This can be a reality. Though PPP Co-Chairman Asif Zardari has met with Nawaz Sharif several times in recent days, he also recently met with Musharraf’s chief advisor Tariq Aziz. Washington must certainly like Zardari’s recent statement that the the army’s fight against the Taliban is “our war.” And it has made it pretty clear it isn’t too fond of Nawaz Sharif. Indeed, things are not necessarily over for the PML-Q. It could change its face and, as some expect, push Chaudhry-alternates Hamid Nasir Chatta or Khurshid Kasuri as party leaders or PM candidates. Alternatively, many in the PML-Q could sense the tide changing and jump ship (or return) to the PML-N. Musharraf has an large array of tools at his disposal, though far less institutional backing than in 2002. A moderately-restrained Musharraf could pull yet another bike trick and end up standing. But, an overzealous Musharraf can crash, not only destroying himself but also the cycle (the PML-Q’s election symbol).

Maulvi Omar, the spokesperson for the Baitullah Mehsud-led Tehreek-e Taliban-e Pakistan (Taliban Movement of Pakistan) tells BBC Urdu that his organization will abide by its pre-election ceasefire commitment and would not derail the process.

He told Reuters, “Neither do we support the process of the election nor do we have any opposition to it and if any attack takes place before or on election day, our mujahid won’t be involved in it.”

Omar also stated that his group has no links to or knowledge behind the kidnapping of Pakistan Ambassador to Afghanistan Tariq Azizuddin.

A report from al-Jazeera (apparently by Ahmad Zaidan), channeled through GEO TV and some Pakistani dailies, claims that local Taliban seized Azizuddin with the intent to exchange him for Mansoor Dadullah, an Afghan Taliban figure arrested by Pakistani security forces on the same day.

Since Mehsud has limited control over other Taliban factions, it is conceivable that Taliban local to the Khyber Agency (one of the seven tribal areas) are responsible. The area, however, is also proliferate with general bandits.

Aside from the major question of who kidnapped Azizuddin, it remains unclear why the Pakistani ambassador traveled to Kabul from Peshawar, his home city, by car when flights are regular. One report claims he was to stop by the Pakistani consulate in Jalalabad. Was his specific business could be related to his disappearance? Interestingly, while the Pakistani government has not yet confirmed that Azizuddin was kidnapped, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai seems to insist that he was, which begets the question of what does he know.