Pakistan’s 2008 Elections: Countdown Ends, Voting Begins
Managed Competition
Millions of Pakistanis will head to the polls today, ostensibly to select their federal and provincial representatives, who in turn will choose the new prime minister and chief ministers. Will their votes matter? To a certain extent, yes. These elections are an exercise in managed competition.
In many electoral districts, the voting public will genuinely decide the victor. Elsewhere, Pervez Musharraf & Co. will actively intervene, skewing the results in their own favor.
That the polls would be rigged was never really a matter of debate. The real questions have been and remain: to what extent will the polls be rigged and where? How far will Musharraf go? Who will lose most from the rigging? Will the rigging–to use one of Musharraf’s favorite military terms–be “surgical” or more of a “shock and awe” variety? If Musharraf opts for the former, he can perhaps stay afloat. If he overstretches, then he will likely be submerged by both the opposition and elements of the so-called “establishment.”
So what would surgical and shock and awe rigging look like exactly? They’re best differentiated by their byproducts.
Surgical rigging could do any number of the following:
- Prevent the opposition from gaining the 2/3 National Assembly majority necessary to impeach Musharraf and amend the constitution. The PPP, PML-N, and ANP could form a government together, yet be unable to reach the threshold above to fully challenge Musharraf. They would need the support of the JUI-F and independents, making these two segments much sought over.
- Balance out the PML-N and PPP, giving them equal opportunity to produce a government. This would pit them against one another and give particular weight to the Musharraf-allied PML-Q, making it a sought-after king maker.
- Have the PML-Q cede the center to the opposition, but form a government in Punjab, keeping it very much alive.
- Give the PPP its expected plurality, but put the PML-Q in second at the expense of the PML-N. The PML-N would cry foul, but with the PPP would be content with the elections, the PML-N’s objections would be dismissed as those of sore losers.
More ambitious, shock and awe rigging could do any number of the following:
- Give the PML-Q a plurality of seats and let it form a national government with the MQM, PML-F, and potential others.
- Significantly dilute the PPP’s share in Sindh, forcing it to pair with the MQM to produce a government there.
- Give the PML-Q a weighty position in a Balochistan and NWFP governing coalition.
Surgical rigging would serve two functions: prevent Musharraf’s opponents from ousting him, while keeping them involved in the political process so as to maintain the elections’ and next government’s legitimacy. Musharraf would fare better if he successfully divided the PPP and PML-N and facilitated their reversion to mutual antagonism.
Shock and awe rigging would put Musharraf’s allies in power and the PPP and PML-N into the streets. Musharraf, who has said he would repress post-poll protests, would likely be shown the exit by an Army unwilling to defend a massively rigged elections process. A new president and caretaker government would then likely schedule elections within a few months at latest.
Post-Election Maneuvering
The intrigue does not end when the last ballot is counted. The post-election period, in which a ruling coalition is formed if a single party fails to obtain a majority is as important as the pre-election and election periods. If the elections are accepted by the opposition (the People’s Party vote counts most), then the machinations for shaping the next government will begin.
Recall what happened after the 2002 elections. The PML-Q won a plurality of seats (almost 50% more than the second place PPP), but the PPP won the overall popular vote (which has little electoral value). It took a month for the PML-Q to get enough votes for its prime ministerial nominee, Zafarullah Jamali, and they obtained a slim majority (52%) through a coalition with the MQM as well as PPP defectors and a lot of exchanged money, favors, and threats. Even if there are no debilitating objections to the poll results, the process of forming a government will take a while and a wide variety of governing coalitions are possible.
Washington, as senior Pakistani journalist Nusrat Javed says, prefers a PPP + PML-Q government. This can be a reality. Though PPP Co-Chairman Asif Zardari has met with Nawaz Sharif several times in recent days, he also recently met with Musharraf’s chief advisor Tariq Aziz. Washington must certainly like Zardari’s recent statement that the the army’s fight against the Taliban is “our war.” And it has made it pretty clear it isn’t too fond of Nawaz Sharif. Indeed, things are not necessarily over for the PML-Q. It could change its face and, as some expect, push Chaudhry-alternates Hamid Nasir Chatta or Khurshid Kasuri as party leaders or PM candidates. Alternatively, many in the PML-Q could sense the tide changing and jump ship (or return) to the PML-N. Musharraf has an large array of tools at his disposal, though far less institutional backing than in 2002. A moderately-restrained Musharraf could pull yet another bike trick and end up standing. But, an overzealous Musharraf can crash, not only destroying himself but also the cycle (the PML-Q’s election symbol).
[...] All Things Pakistan kicks off its own election-day debate with a prognosis, reproduced from an op-ed in the New Straits Times, that things will get worse before they get better. The Pakistan Policy Blog examines the potential for vote-rigging and post-election manoeuvring and concludes that “these elections are an exercise in managed competition.” [...]
Dear sir/Madam,
Dare to raise your voice for the voiceless people of Pakistan, help to empower the Pakistani – the country belongs too.
Pakistan is passing through a crucial time and is in imminent need for change of system, instead of change of faces, let the people of Pakistan the country belongs to be the real stack holder and empower them to decide the fate of their generation.
Since the creation of Pakistan the Pakistani people are left at distant from the corridor of power so that the ruling elite can do what they wanted to do in favour of their interest, leaving the Pakistani people at the mercy of circumstances. As this policy is denial of right of Pakistani people to rule their country according to their aspiration and desire to built this country, which can provide equal opportunity to all without any discrimination for the establishment of welfare society. Only the society base on tolerance, equality and justice can be the real guarantee for the prosperous and strong Pakistan there for your intention is invited to the crucial movement which could be the point of distraction or disaster.
since last 60 years no one has dare to trust the Pakistani people and involved them in to the day to day decision making process with intention to develop a sense of participation in to the decision making process affecting the future of their country and their generation at large and share the real benefit of democracy, and due to the conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits, deprivation and opinions of the masses as an important element within so-called democratic society, they manipulate this elements of society to constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country.
As we are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes are formed, our ideas suggested largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of masses beings force to cooperate in this approach if they are to live together as a so-called smoothly functioning society.
Whatever attitude, one chooses to take toward this condition, it remains a fact that in almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons, who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind, who harness old social forces and engineer new ways to bind and protect their personal interest with outside forces.
Sometimes the effect on the public is created by a professional propagandist, sometimes by an amateur deputed for the situation. The important thing is that it is universal and continuous; and in its sum total is regimenting the public mind every bit as much as possible to keep the masses away from the corridor of power. The systematic study of mass psychology, revealed to the ruling click the potentialities of (invisible groups within the society) manipulation of the society by actuate man, So the question naturally arose, If we understand the mechanism and motives of the ruling elite and the way they practice, propaganda has proved that it is possible, at least up to a certain extent and within certain limits we can introduce the alternate socio-political system to replace the present undemocratic system.
No one believes any longer that the voice of the people expresses could have been stop, any divine or especially wise and lofty idea. The honest voice of the people, regarding the system will affect the mind of the people, and that mind once made up for it by the masses, group taking responsibility for the change of system will succeed in creating public opinion.
Whether is the difficulty of getting elected to office or in the problem of interpreting and popularizing new issues, or in the problem of making the day-to-day administration of public relation affecting a vital part of the community life should be carefully adjusted according to the mentality of the masses, being an essential attachment of political life.
We have already lost the major part of Pakistan in 1971 simply to save the centralised sole power to exploit this country by the ruling elite they let the country break in part then allowing the masses to rule this country democratically. In the present circumstances we are again dragging our sovereignty at stack for the external interest in the name of national interest, instead of our interest i.e. the interest of Pakistani people at large.
The only way out of these crucial circumstances is the only way to empower the common Pakistani at grass route level i.e. the change of system. This change is inevitable for the prosperous Pakistan .As a citizen of this country I have try to provide an alternate socio-political system to empower the masses at grass route level for rapid industrial and agriculture development with transparency and accountability in the system. Along with basic guarantees for the creation of welfare state, where in public representative and institution shall be answerable and accountable to the masses.
Kindly see web site….www.idp.org.pk
Kindly acknowledge with your comments.
Ilyas khan Baloch
Organizer Islamic Democratic Party