The Pakistan Policy Blog

Nicholas Schmidle’s article in this week’s New York Times Magazine on the “Next-Gen Taliban” is one of the most solid stories in recent years on Pakistan’s challenges in its northwest region.  Most foreign commentators and journalists focus exclusively on the area’s security predicament, as if it were entirely distinct from its politics and politicians.

At the center of the North-West Frontier Province’s politics is the scruffy looking, orange turbaned Maulana Fazlur Rahman.  Schmidle’s piece is largely a profile of Fazl, who is also derisively known as “Maulana Diesel” for his alleged role in a fuel sale scandal.

In fact, Schmidle argues that Fazl seeks, and is perhaps best suited, to solve the security crisis in Pakistan’s frontier and tribal areas.  This idea could be gaining some currency.  Late last year, Fazl met with U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Armstrong.  Fazl tells Schmidle that Armstrong asked him to “form an electoral alliance with Benazir Bhutto and Musharraf.”  He’s come a long way since leading anti-U.S. protests during the American invasion of Afghanistan.  Now Fazl reportedly is a target of the neo-Taliban and al-Qaeda and alienated some in his party.

Schmidle, however, is insufficiently cynical of Fazl’s intentions and fails to account for his emerging national role.   Specifically, he doesn’t address Fazl’s aspirations to become Pakistan’s next prime minister, which (however fantastical) figure into his calculus.  This helps explain why he’s been there for Musharraf every time the latter’s needed him; though Fazl led the opposition in the previous parliament, he acted in the government’s interest when it most needed him.

Though the odds of Maulana Diesel becoming Maulana Prime Minister are low, he could decide who’ll be the next prime minister.  Should a single party fail to get a majority in the National Assembly elections, his party will be courted by the major vote getters to form a coalition.  Fazl will certainly ask for the premiership in return; what he’ll actually get remains to be seen.

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