Emergency rule will likely end tomorrow and so Pervez Musharraf has been busy utilizing his soon-to-be-gone self-given powers to amend the constitution by decree.

Last night, he issued an ordinance formally institutionalizing the National Command Authority (NCA)– established in February 2000. The ten-member body “exercise[s] complete command and control over all nuclear and space related technologies, systems and matters.”

The president chairs the NCA with the prime minister as vice chairman. Its remaining members are the foreign, defense, and interior ministers; chiefs of the army, naval, air force staff; the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee; and the director general of the Strategic Plans Division, who also serves as secretary general of the group.

Musharraf will also issue five other ordinances, one of which will reportedly satiate Benazir Bhutto (and indirectly Nawaz Sharif) by lifting the bar on a third prime ministerial term.

For much of this year, Aitzaz Ahsan has been pulled in opposite directions by the lawyers’ movement, of which he is a leader, and the Benazir Bhutto-led People’s Party.   Jailed by Musharraf after imposition of emergency rule, Ahsan was recently released from prison so he could file his election nomination papers.  His party had, for several weeks, asserted that it would participate in the elections; but the lawyers’ movement has been resolutely against any sort of legitimation of Musharraf’s constitutional contravention.

As Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N veered toward electoral participation, Ahsan — sensing the political establishment was wiping its hands clean of the lawyers’ movement — proposed a compromise to the candidates: participate in the elections, but take an oath that you will work to reinstate the pre-November 3rd judiciary and repeal legal changes made under emergency rule when the new parliament convenes.

The sensible and just compromise was rejected by Bhutto, who sees Ahsan as a challenge to her control of the party for which she is “chairperson for life.”  When asked about Ahsan’s proposal, Bhutto replied, “It is Aitzaz Ahsan’s personal point of view and the PPP has nothing to do with it.”

Now it seems as if Ahsan might have nothing to do with the PPP.  Today, he withdrew his nomination papers and announced he will be boycotting the elections.  Ahsan’s full return to the lawyers’ movement gives it the leadership it has been lacking in recent weeks.  Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry remains under house arrest and is virtually incommunicado.  Former Supreme Court Bar Association President Muneer Malik was allegedly fed a liquid in prison that caused renal failure.  He is now being sent abroad for medical care.  Firebrand Ahmad Ali Kurd appears to remain under tight house arrest, despite being released from prison.

Aitzaz Ahsan will not be part of the next parliament if and when it convenes after the January polls.  But Ahsan, with his credibility intact, might have enough to last the potential coming storm and come out on top.

In Charlie Wilson’s War, George Crile tells the tale of the rowdy, booze-loving and skirt-chasing Texan congressman who helped catalyze the billions in U.S. funding for the Afghan mujahideen during the 1980s. Both Wilson and friend Joanne Herring became passionate supporters of Pakistan and the Afghan cause, developing strong ties with Pakistani President Zia-ul-Haq.

I managed to pick up a copy of the bestseller two years ago for $5 at Barnes and Noble. The book — a great read — has been made into a film starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts. Charlie Wilson’s War the movie opens across the U.S. on December 21. Check out the preview below.

NAWAZ THROWS HIS HAT IN THE RING
The second of Pakistan’s two major opposition parties has bitten the forbidden fruit. Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N announced yesterday that they will contest the upcoming national and provincial assembly elections in January.

The decision comes after Sharif and PPP head Benazir Bhutto failed to come to terms on a Charter of Demands on Friday. The lack of an acrimonious split between the two could be telling. Have they, in the end, effectively agreed to a Charter of Demands sans the restoration of the pre-November 3rd judges prior to elections?

After all, it’s the only issue that was keeping the two apart. Moreover, Sharif could not be seen as consenting to the PPP’s demand to postpone the judges issue till after the polls. Much of his renewed support stems from his appropriation of the pro-judiciary movement’s support base.

BBC Urdu reports that the PML-N, like the PPP, has termed its electoral participation “in protest.” Sharif’s move of going through the motions with Bhutto only to ‘fail’, and then putting his hat in the ring with the justification that someone needs to counter the PML-Q in the polls, gives him plausible deniability vis-a-vis the judges issue.

RUMOR MILLS ACTIVE
Benazir Bhutto departure for Dubai on Friday has set off some speculation that something significant, besides the end of emergency rule, could occur on December 15. Musharraf imposed emergency rule the last time she left for the emirate.Trailing behind Bhutto is none other than Attorney General and Musharraf aide Malik Qayyum. He’s in Dubai till Tuesday to negotiate some legal-constitutional issues with Benazir. Emergency rule will be lifted on Saturday, giving Musharraf only a few days left to amend the constitution by decree. Expect something nice for both Mushy and BB.

THE NEXT GOVERNING COALITION
The PML-N’s entry into the fold furthers the odds of a hung parliament. No one party will gain a numerical majority. The Chaudhries-led PML-Q will take a hit from the PML-N, with the latter taking most of urban Punjab, leaving the former with the province’s rural areas.The PML-Q will receive support from allied parties in Sindh such as the PML-F and MQM, but the PPP will likely make a stronger showing in Sindh than in 2002. The PPP, in fact, could be going it alone by fielding candidates in every election district. There are, however, reports of possible seat adjustment arrangements with the JUI-F and/or the PML-N.

The coming parliamentary alliances are not set. Presumably, the PPP is seeking the maximum number of seats before the election, enabling it approach coalition talks with maximum leverage.

Seat adjustment arrangements are a fairly reliable sign of which parties pair up together. Ultimately, it’s the seats that count and it is significant if two parties agree not to compete against one another in select districts.

The PML-Q has already picked its friends, including the MQM, PML-F, and PPP-S. But will they be enough?

Let’s take a look at the numbers. The PML-Q and PPP could both end up with around 100 seats each in the 342 member parliament. Shares of the MMA and PML-N will likely respectively decrease and increase. Both might end up with around 50 seats. In a 342-member National Assembly, the MMA, PML-N, smaller parties, and independents will play the role of king maker.

In the end, this is mostly a race between the PML-Q and PPP. The real questions are: How many assembly seats will the PML-Q lose? How many will the PML-N and PPP gain? And will the MMA make a strong electoral showing again?

UPDATE – December 11, 2007 (1:14PM) – An “estimate” by Pakistani intelligence services of the January election, as reported by Dawn, is much in accord with mine. It has the PML-Q taking 115 seats, the PPP 90, MMA 45, PML-N 40, MQM 20, and the ANP 12. Based on this estimate, the PML-Q could form a government with the support of the MQM, MMA, and the PML-F. It would, however, need the support of the PPP for reaching the 2/3 threshold for validating Musharraf’s suspension of the constitution, should that even be necessary. Alternatively, the PPP could form a government with the PML-N, MMA, and if necessary, the ANP. Either scenario makes the pro-Taliban MMA the king maker for Pakistan’s next government.

POST-ELECTION VOLATILITY
Political alliances in Pakistan have always been unwieldy. Musharraf has managed to hold the PML-Q, MQM, and defacto coalition member JUI-F together over the course of five years. But that was while he was army chief of staff and Bhutto and Sharif were on the bench.Pakistan’s political elite culture is marked by severe mutual distrust and an absence of governing values. And so as much as Mushahid Hussain of the PML-Q has spoken of a grand national alliance, his peers lack the rudimentary values and traits, such as mutual trust and trustworthiness, required for some sort of lasting consociational framework.

WASHINGTON’S MYOPIA
Washington’s fixation on a Bhutto-Musharraf alliance — partially due to its aversion to a return to the civilian discord of the 1990s — is naive. By playing favorites, it ensures that those excluded will play the role of spoiler, as was done then. The military-intelligence apparatus was deeply involved in the politics then, despite the absence of a sitting or ex-general as president. Their plans, in reality, bring Pakistan more back to the 1990s than it thinks.The Bush administration has snubbed Nawaz Sharif, saying he’s too close to Islamists, but its ambassador to Islamabad has no problem meeting regularly with pro-Taliban mullah Fazlur Rahman, a de-facto member of Musharraf’s coalition, who dreams of becoming prime minister.

Sharif’s campaign will likely take a decidedly nationalist orientation. Though this is not inconsistent with his previous campaign strategies, it could have been mitigated with some constructive engagement from Washington.

Today, in an address in Faisalabad, he stated that Musharraf put the head of Pakistan’s nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, under house arrest, while India made its nuclear program chief, Abdul Kalam, president.

SAUDI AMBASSADOR TO PAKISTAN MEETS CHIEF JUSTICE CHAUDHRY
The Pakistan government prevented Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif from meeting deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. However, it did permit the Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan Ali Awadh Asseri to pay a visit to Chaudhry today.

Asseri likely did not come to deposed chief justice with an olive branch from Musharraf. His visit is the latest of Saudi moves to ensure some political stability in Pakistan.

BBC Urdu reports that the Saudi ambassador offered Iftikhar Chaudhry exile in Saudi Arabia, ostensibly to prevent another judicial crisis in the country. Chaudhry refused the offer, stating that the only solution is a restoration of the pre-November 3rd judiciary.

In an earlier version of this post, I had suggested that the Asseri’s visit is also part of a Saudi bid to restore its good standing with the Pakistani public after taking Nawaz Sharif back in Jeddah. However, its reported offering of exile to Chaudhry is, in the words of Yogi Berra, déjà vu all over again. If accurate, the Saudi offer demonstrates their concern for political stability significantly outweighs any interest in Pakistani public perception of the kingdom. Like the September deportation of Nawaz, it is reasonable to believe that the offer comes with the blessings, or even at the behest, of Washington.

PML UNIFICATION
Continuing on the theme of the Saudi role in Pakistan, Dawn News reports that a “brotherly Muslim nation”, i.e. Saudi Arabia, is actively urging the disparate factions of the Pakistan Muslim league (Nawaz, Quaid, Functional) to unite.

This move makes sense on its own right. It is in Pakistan’s interest for the PML to consolidate and establish itself as a cohesive, ideologically-sound center-right party that is less personality driven.

But the unification, which would only occur after elections, also serves Saudi interests in checking the political position of Benazir Bhutto.

THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE HOME
Pervez Musharraf has decided to keep the Army House in Rawalpindi as his residence. Though he has been president since 2001, he never moved into the presidential residence.

THE “SOFT BIGOTRY OF LOW EXPECTATIONS”
Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher tells the Senate Foreign Relations Committee the upcoming elections in Pakistan are “not going to be…perfect.”

The Benazir-Nawaz team is expected to release its “Charter of Demands” tomorrow or Friday.  A sticking point between the two parties is the restoration of the pre-November 3rd judiciary.  Benazir favors postponing that to after the new National Assembly comes in (if ever), while Nawaz has consistently asserted that this is a pre-condition for his electoral participation.

Bhutto has little sympathy for the deposed judiciary.  She took umbrage at its rejection of the Bhutto and MQM-specific National Reconciliation Ordinance.  In a Dubai press conference, hours before her return to Pakistan after years of exile, Bhutto excoriated the Supreme Court, accusing it of a historically pro-Punjabi bias.  In fact, she effectively stated–guised in the interrogative–that the court did not intervene in the case of Nawaz Sharif, who she described as “a convicted person, a sentenced, convicted person who was prime minister of Pakistan from Punjab [who] was released and sent to Saudi Arabia with 40 suit cases” while her father, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, “was hanged because he was from Sindh.” [Video]

In contrast, Nawaz Sharif has much to gain from bringing back Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry & Company to office.  Nawaz has hedged much of his political future on being the pro-judiciary politician.  Chaudhry, it is said, leans somewhat toward the PML-N.  Moreover, bringing back the previous Supreme Court means the end of Musharraf, as he’d be held accountable for his subversion of the constitution, and that works more in Nawaz’s favor than Benazir’s.

Beyond this issue, the remaining gaps between Benazir and Nawaz are not considerable.  However, this point of contention is a major one, and should the two camps not reach a compromise, the PPP would likely participate in the polls while the PML-N would abstain.

In a joint press conference held earlier this hour, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif announced they will form an eight-member committee to issue a “Charter of Demands” to Pervez Musharraf that they claim, if implemented, would ensure free and fair elections. Should those demands not be met by a certain date, the two will actively consider boycotting the elections as, in their view, the present conditions strongly indicate the polls will be rigged.

The press conference came after a three and a half hour meeting between long-time foes Bhutto and Sharif. The two politicians battled one another during the 90s, patched relations in recent years by agreeing to a Charter of Democracy, which Bhutto later reneged upon. The latest charter brings the two toward a middle ground, with Bhutto inching closer to a boycott and Sharif to participation.

Noticeably absent from the press conference is Imran Khan, on whose side Nawaz Sharif sat by Friday declaring that his party won’t participate in the elections. Sitting by Sharif today, instead, was Mehmood Khan Achakzai, a Pashtun nationalist leader.

Nawaz’s election papers were rejected today by the country’s election commission on account of his convictions in 2000. This was not a shock, though the earlier rejection of the papers of his brother, Shahbaz, was mildly surprising. However, their ban from running does not preclude their electoral involvement. They could lead campaigning and, when a new assembly comes into power next year, return to parliament in by-elections — like Recep Tayyip Erdogan.