NAWAZ THROWS HIS HAT IN THE RING
The second of Pakistan’s two major opposition parties has bitten the forbidden fruit. Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N announced yesterday that they will contest the upcoming national and provincial assembly elections in January.

The decision comes after Sharif and PPP head Benazir Bhutto failed to come to terms on a Charter of Demands on Friday. The lack of an acrimonious split between the two could be telling. Have they, in the end, effectively agreed to a Charter of Demands sans the restoration of the pre-November 3rd judges prior to elections?

After all, it’s the only issue that was keeping the two apart. Moreover, Sharif could not be seen as consenting to the PPP’s demand to postpone the judges issue till after the polls. Much of his renewed support stems from his appropriation of the pro-judiciary movement’s support base.

BBC Urdu reports that the PML-N, like the PPP, has termed its electoral participation “in protest.” Sharif’s move of going through the motions with Bhutto only to ‘fail’, and then putting his hat in the ring with the justification that someone needs to counter the PML-Q in the polls, gives him plausible deniability vis-a-vis the judges issue.

RUMOR MILLS ACTIVE
Benazir Bhutto departure for Dubai on Friday has set off some speculation that something significant, besides the end of emergency rule, could occur on December 15. Musharraf imposed emergency rule the last time she left for the emirate.Trailing behind Bhutto is none other than Attorney General and Musharraf aide Malik Qayyum. He’s in Dubai till Tuesday to negotiate some legal-constitutional issues with Benazir. Emergency rule will be lifted on Saturday, giving Musharraf only a few days left to amend the constitution by decree. Expect something nice for both Mushy and BB.

THE NEXT GOVERNING COALITION
The PML-N’s entry into the fold furthers the odds of a hung parliament. No one party will gain a numerical majority. The Chaudhries-led PML-Q will take a hit from the PML-N, with the latter taking most of urban Punjab, leaving the former with the province’s rural areas.The PML-Q will receive support from allied parties in Sindh such as the PML-F and MQM, but the PPP will likely make a stronger showing in Sindh than in 2002. The PPP, in fact, could be going it alone by fielding candidates in every election district. There are, however, reports of possible seat adjustment arrangements with the JUI-F and/or the PML-N.

The coming parliamentary alliances are not set. Presumably, the PPP is seeking the maximum number of seats before the election, enabling it approach coalition talks with maximum leverage.

Seat adjustment arrangements are a fairly reliable sign of which parties pair up together. Ultimately, it’s the seats that count and it is significant if two parties agree not to compete against one another in select districts.

The PML-Q has already picked its friends, including the MQM, PML-F, and PPP-S. But will they be enough?

Let’s take a look at the numbers. The PML-Q and PPP could both end up with around 100 seats each in the 342 member parliament. Shares of the MMA and PML-N will likely respectively decrease and increase. Both might end up with around 50 seats. In a 342-member National Assembly, the MMA, PML-N, smaller parties, and independents will play the role of king maker.

In the end, this is mostly a race between the PML-Q and PPP. The real questions are: How many assembly seats will the PML-Q lose? How many will the PML-N and PPP gain? And will the MMA make a strong electoral showing again?

UPDATE – December 11, 2007 (1:14PM) – An “estimate” by Pakistani intelligence services of the January election, as reported by Dawn, is much in accord with mine. It has the PML-Q taking 115 seats, the PPP 90, MMA 45, PML-N 40, MQM 20, and the ANP 12. Based on this estimate, the PML-Q could form a government with the support of the MQM, MMA, and the PML-F. It would, however, need the support of the PPP for reaching the 2/3 threshold for validating Musharraf’s suspension of the constitution, should that even be necessary. Alternatively, the PPP could form a government with the PML-N, MMA, and if necessary, the ANP. Either scenario makes the pro-Taliban MMA the king maker for Pakistan’s next government.

POST-ELECTION VOLATILITY
Political alliances in Pakistan have always been unwieldy. Musharraf has managed to hold the PML-Q, MQM, and defacto coalition member JUI-F together over the course of five years. But that was while he was army chief of staff and Bhutto and Sharif were on the bench.Pakistan’s political elite culture is marked by severe mutual distrust and an absence of governing values. And so as much as Mushahid Hussain of the PML-Q has spoken of a grand national alliance, his peers lack the rudimentary values and traits, such as mutual trust and trustworthiness, required for some sort of lasting consociational framework.

WASHINGTON’S MYOPIA
Washington’s fixation on a Bhutto-Musharraf alliance — partially due to its aversion to a return to the civilian discord of the 1990s — is naive. By playing favorites, it ensures that those excluded will play the role of spoiler, as was done then. The military-intelligence apparatus was deeply involved in the politics then, despite the absence of a sitting or ex-general as president. Their plans, in reality, bring Pakistan more back to the 1990s than it thinks.The Bush administration has snubbed Nawaz Sharif, saying he’s too close to Islamists, but its ambassador to Islamabad has no problem meeting regularly with pro-Taliban mullah Fazlur Rahman, a de-facto member of Musharraf’s coalition, who dreams of becoming prime minister.

Sharif’s campaign will likely take a decidedly nationalist orientation. Though this is not inconsistent with his previous campaign strategies, it could have been mitigated with some constructive engagement from Washington.

Today, in an address in Faisalabad, he stated that Musharraf put the head of Pakistan’s nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, under house arrest, while India made its nuclear program chief, Abdul Kalam, president.