Pakistani television stations are reporting that two blasts occurred near the convoy of ex-Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who returned today to Pakistan, ending eight years of exile. The blasts apparently were very strong, occurring perhaps two minutes apart, as Bhutto’s armored truck crossed a flyover. The first was at 12:09AM Pakistan time (3:09 PM EST). There are individuals injured. One report stated that the blast occurred near Bhutto’s truck, but another witness has stated that Bhutto and senior People’s Party figures accompanying her were not impacted by the blast.

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UPDATE: 3:21 PM – GEO reports that at least 10 individuals are injured, that the first blast was weak and was followed by a much stronger explosion.

UPDATE: 3:24 PM - A People’s Party spokesperson states that Benazir Bhutto will continue to head toward the Quaid’s Mazar (mausoleum of Pakistan’s founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah) and address thousands of supporters there as planned.

UPDATE: 3:28 PM – A Land Cruiser in front of a car carrying Bhutto supporters reportedly went on fire shortly after the blast. Not sure if this indicates a car bomb was involved.

UPDATE: 3:31 PM – An AAJ TV correspondent on the scene reports at 18 dead on the scene. Very sad news.

UPDATE: 3:35 PM – A GEO TV correspondent quotes Aitzaz Ahsan as saying that the blasts occurred in IMMEDIATE proximity to Benazir Bhutto’s truck, but she remains fine.

UPDATE: 3:38 PM – GEO anchor Kamran Khan says that the first blast was perhaps a triggered bomb while the second blast could have been a suicide attack.

UPDATE: 3:53 PM – Benazir Bhutto has arrived safely at Bilawal House in Karachi’s Clifton area.

UPDATE: 3:55 PM – The death toll is now over 30, including a cameraman for ARY television named Arif Khan.

UPDATE: 4:04 PM – Supporters of Benazir Bhutto remain on the scene, chanting against the government and Sindh Chief Minister and Bhutto-foe Arbab Rahim.

UPDATE: 4:10 PM - Benazir Bhutto was inside the truck when the blasts occurred. She spent much of the day outside on the top of the truck. Most or all of those in the immediate vicinity of the truck have been reportedly killed.

UPDATE: 4:21 PM - Schools will be closed in tomorrow. There is an immediate need for blood in Karachi and hospitals are requesting donations.

UPDATE: 4:34 - Aaj TV reports that an unconfirmed 78 individuals killed in the blast. Jinnah Hospital and Civil Hospital in Karachi has a serious blood shortage and is requesting donors. The fate of the injured is very bleak. Karachi suffers from endemic traffic. It is a bloated megacity with a horrible infrastructure. The only real ambulance service is provided by a non-profit, the Edhi Foundation.

UPDATE: 4:46 - The vehicle suspected as containing the bomb/bomber reportedly did not have a license on it.

UPDATE: 4:59 - Benazir Bhutto requested jamming devices for her vehicle from the government. As of two days ago, she was negotiating with the government and it is unclear if she was provided with the technology for her armored personnel carrier (pictured below).

UPDATE: 5:34 - Benazir Bhutto is secure in Bilawal House along with Amin Fahim, Mehmood Quraishi, and various PPP National Assembly members. The death toll is now over 100.

UPDATE: 5:44 - Asif Zardari, the husband of Benazir Bhutto, is speaking on AAJ TV right now. He condemned the attacks and expressed his sympathy and condolences for those killed in the attacks, including journalists. He said the attackers are those indicated in a letter by Bhutto to Musharraf (reported in the Guardian, see below). He hasn’t informed his daughters of the attacks, but called his son, Bilawal, who is a first-year student at Oxford.

UPDATE: 5:56 - Ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is speaking on television now. He says that suicide bombing is not a new phenomenon in Pakistan, the government should have taken extraordinary preparations to prevent an attack against Bhutto, and the security agencies failed in instituting a fool-proof defense of Bhutto. When asked about who was responsible, Sharif refused to answer, saying that the responsibility is on the government as it is the ultimate defender of national security. When asked about when he’ll return to Pakistan, things turned strange. Sharif’s voice weakened and he tersely replied, “When the people of Pakistan call for me.” After a few seconds of silence the call ended. He sounded very dispirited and perhaps on the verge of crying.

UPDATE: 6:08 - Senior PPP figure Abida Hussain is among the injured.

UPDATE: 6:11 - The death toll is now 124. Four hundred are injured. Unfortunately the figures will likely rise as a result of Pakistan’s poor urban infrastructure, hospital system, and ambulatory services.

UPDATE: 6:14 - Karachi’s Bomb Disposal Service (BDS) states that there was a bomb planted in a vehicle and there was no suicide attack.

UPDATE: 6:30 - AAJ TV reports that a bomb disposal squad has reached the Bilawal House, the Karachi home of Benazir Bhutto — and that this is a preventative measure.

UPDATE: 7:00 - GEO reports that Bhutto’s vehicle was underneath a flyover/overpass (not crossing one as I stated before) when the blasts occurred. Additionally, the car with the bomb/bomber could have been a Suzuki Alto and not a Toyota Land Cruiser, as mentioned above.

UPDATE: 8:17 - State Minister of Information Tariq Azeem Khan condemned the attacks on BBC News and stated that this is precisely the reason why his government asked Bhutto to delay her return to the country. He strongly suggested that militants made her a target after she stated that she would permit U.S. troops to act against Osama bin Laden on Pakistan soil should Islamabad lack the capacity to do so.

UPDATE: 8:33 - The attack occurred on Shahre Faisal (Faisal Road) in between Karachi’s Quaid-e Azam Airport and the Mazar-e Quaid (Jinnah’s Mausoleum) while Bhutto’s caravan was underneath an overpass in close proximity to a gas station (Pakistan State Oil). In other words, the damage could have been far worse.

UPDATE: 8:43 - For several hours, CNN.com has been providing a live feed of Pakistan’s most popular private channel, GEO. However, GEO stopped live coverage of the attacks over half an hour ago (it’s after 5AM in Pakistan) and is broadcasting a pre-recorded religious program (Javed Ghamidi’s show). It’s an Urdu channel, so I figure the folks at CNN.com have no idea what’s being said on the screen.

WHO DID IT?

Very preliminary thoughts.

PRIMARY SUSPECTS:

• Baitullah Mehsud [Profile]: Head of the neo-Taliban in Waziristan. He allegedly threatened suicide attacks against Bhutto, but his associates recently denied that he made such threats.
• Rogue military-intelligence elements: Earlier this week, Benazir Bhutto told The Guardian that Mehsud was just a “pawn” and that she was a target of Taliban-favoring retired military officers. If true, there is a low likelihood of these individuals having any connection to current senior Pakistani military-intelligence figures President and COAS Pervez Musharraf, VCOAS Ashfaq Kiyani, CJSC Tariq Majeed, and ISI Chief Nadeem Taj. Bhutto’s trust for Musharraf is enormously high and she has good confidence in former ISI-chief and current VCOAS Ashfaq Kiyani. Asif Zardari, Bhutto’s husband, blamed the attacks on “one intelligence agency,” — perhaps the Intelligence Bureau and specifically, its head Ejaz Shah — and demanded action against it, presumably by President Musharraf.

LONG SHOTS:

• Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) [Profile]: Ethnic party, consisting of Urdu-speaking migrants to Pakistan. Member of Musharraf’s ruling coalition with violent history. Currently govern the city of Karachi and province of Sindh. Led by self-exiled Altaf Hussain (lives in London), the group led a wave of terrorism in the early 1990s, which was quashed by the Pakistan Army. The party is a major rival of Bhutto’s PPP and stands to lose significantly from Bhutto coming back to power, including leadership of the Sindh province (which is Bhutto’s base of support). Their party workers attacked PPP workers during the violence on the occasion of the Supreme Court Chief Justice’s ill-fated visit to Karachi. The group, however, has no history of suicide attacks.
• Heads of major party in the ruling coalition, the PML-Q: President of the ruling PML-Q party Chaudhry Shujaat and his cousin Punjab Chief Minister Pervez Ellahi. They stand to lose the most from Bhutto coming back to power. They tried very much to prevent the deal with Musharraf and Bhutto’s return. Relations between them and the Bhutto camp have become very hostile as of late.
• Benazir Bhutto’s People’s Party: This is the most far-fetched scenario, mirroring the claims that Pervez Musharraf staged the assassination attempts against him in order to further Western support. Bhutto spent much of her time on top of the modified (perhaps crudely) armored truck, but went to the more secure bottom of the vehicle prior to the blast. The attack could provide Bhutto with the political space to take a more anti-Musharraf, anti-establishment line, regain the legitimacy she lost as a result of making a deal with Musharraf, and instead of sharing power with him, go for the entire plate. However, the likelihood of the attacks being staged from the inside is extremely low, considering that the Bhutto camp lacks connections to the security establishment and the armored vehicle Bhutto was traveling in was not advanced.