The final round of Bhutto-Musharraf talks have taken a turn for the better, with both sides very close to a deal.  Benazir’s assertion yesterday that talks have stalled and her threat of PPP resignations are clear signs of her negotiating strengths.  The former prime minister seamlessly alternates between tough remarks against Musharraf and a more conciliatory approach, often portraying his political allies (i.e. the Chaudhries) as potential spoilers.

Meanwhile, Musharraf has re-emphasized his call for national reconciliation made in August and even called for the inclusion of Nawaz Sharif (which Chaudhry Shujaat has been pushing for).   This confirms our earlier assessment that Musharraf is not expressly against Nawaz’s return, but opposed its September timing.

Nawaz will understandably oppose Musharraf’s ‘suggested’ post-election timing, and not simply on the basis of his legal right to return to Pakistan.   The timing keeps him on the sidelines while the political spoils are being distributed.   Still, Nawaz can find himself a leadership position thereafter if Musharraf takes national reconciliation to heart, by defactionalizing himself, and taking the middle ground between the PPP and a consolidated PML.