From: Arif Rafiq

To: Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto

Dear Prime Minister Bhutto:

When your self-exile from Pakistan meets its ends next Thursday, you and your entourage of seventy-five foreign journalists, Pakistani media, and dozens of supporters will witness a raucous reception in Karachi. The international media and Western diplomats—forever enchanted with your Muslim womanhood and Radcliffe-Oxford education—will hail your return as a step closer toward a democratic, modern Pakistan. People’s Party supporters as well as patronage-seeking sycophants will beam with joy.

These images, however, will be deceiving. The honeymoon will not last long. The Pakistan you will have returned to differs significantly from the one you left. Though it is still dominated by underachieving and corrupt feudals, business barons, a military-intelligence apparatus, and a variety of ethnic-political factions, Pakistan features a growing consumer class. Their broadening consumption choices extend beyond commodities like chai and mobile phones. Pakistan’s burgeoning middle and upper-middle classes have competing sources of news, commentary, and as of late, political leadership.

Your eight year absence has witnessed a proliferation of private television news channels and a fairly assertive print media. GEO, ARY, and AAJ have reduced PTV viewers to those without an alternative. Private media’s expansion has exposed Pakistanis to a wide range of opinion. The absence of a hegemonic narrative and the popularity of public affairs programs have produced a more informed electorate. And after decades of graft and unfulfilled promises from military and civilian rulers alike, more Pakistanis have decided that their leaders have collectively failed them. They are highly cynical. They feel they’ve seen it all.

So what do they want? The support for you in 1989, Nawaz Sharif in 1997, Pervez Musharraf in 1999, and Iftikhar Chaudhry and Wajihuddin Ahmed today suggests that Pakistanis simply want a country that works. They want: good, democratic governance; peaceful, institutionalized transitions of power; effective judicial and police systems; living wages that correspond to inflation; roads that don’t turn into canals when it rains; modern public transportation; proper sanitation and clean water; uninterrupted supply of electricity; decent medical care; good public education; and a strong military focused strictly on defending Pakistan’s national security and sovereignty.

Pakistan’s middle and lower classes feel suffocated. They hear claims of 7% annual GDP growth, but the only 7% rise they see is in inflation. They see images of Dubai-style projects in Karachi and elsewhere—fantasylands they will never experience. When they step out of their homes, the Pakistan they see is the brain-drain causing prison millions flee. Karachiites live in a state of fear. Villagers live at the whim of rapacious feudals. Today, Pakistan’s discontented lean toward an alternative that likely won’t take power in the coming months, but may become a force to reckon with in a few years.

Should you come into power early next year, it could prove to be your last chance to make a real impact on Pakistan and secure your legacy. Surely, you don’t want to be remembered as a masterful politician who failed at governing.

So what must be done? Most Pakistanis have outgrown the patronizing mantra of “roti, kapra, makan.” They want specific proposals, not vague promises, on how government can improve their quality of life. And so in the coming months, you should shape and propose a comprehensive policy agenda for Pakistan’s progress.

You should address issues like Pakistan’s textile industry crisis, energy shortages, and absence of the rule of law. You will need to explain how a Bhutto government will differ from the current one as well as your previous ones. How your government will win in Waziristan when insurgents there cut the heads off of suspected “enemy” agents? Will you abandon privatization and increase the state’s payrolls? How will your populist party balance the country’s rising inequality with the needs for structural reform and foreign direct investment?

Pakistan is a massive, complex country. Governing it is a weighty responsibility, especially now that it’s at the brink of fracture and failure. It desperately needs sound public policies, not benign neglect and empty promises.

You will have a chance to show that civilian rule need not be marked by economic mismanagement, a pusillanimous national security policy, and widespread corruption. It can be a democratic source for political stability, national security, good governance, and sustainable, equitable development.

For all his flaws, Pervez Musharraf proposed a seven-point agenda soon after taking power and will likely put forward another one soon. Where’s yours?

Sincerely,

Arif Rafiq