From Nawaz Sharif’s ill-fated return to the Supreme Court petitions against his presidential candidacy, Pervez Musharraf has successfully pulled the air out of his opposition’s more dramatic attempts to oppose his rule. Friday’s Supreme Court dismissal of the anti-Musharraf petitions strongly suggests an arrangement between the High Court and Musharraf pre-figured the outcome well in advance. This enabled Musharraf to utilize as a political instrument a court that has built up a public image of independence, legitimacy, and virtual sacredness through opposing him. As a result, the Supreme Court’s decision has been largely met with resignation by the Pakistani public. Opposing the decision of the court would defy its new-found sanctity and public sentimentalism for the rule of law.

The nature and timing of the Supreme Court’s non-decision indicate an arrangement between Pakistan’s president and the High Court. Firstly, the petitions were dismissed on technicalities, not merit. This technical dismissal is consistent with the High Court’s previous rulings against similar anti-military rule petitions going back to the 1950s. Furthermore, non-maintainability should have been obvious and declared at the outset. A retired judge, Fakhruddin Ibrahim, speculates that the technical violation was that the petitions were submitted before Musharraf filed his nomination papers. The exact reasons are unknown, as the senior presiding justice, Rana Baghwandas, stated they would be “recorded later.”

The Supreme Court went through a complete set of extended proceedings, including closing arguments, though none of this was necessary for the court’s final ruling. So what was the purpose? It seems as if the prescribed goal was to draw out the process as close to the elections as possible, stifling any significant legal opposition to Musharraf’s re-election bid. After all, the court announced its decision late Friday afternoon, right before the start of the weekend, and its vague statement leaves the opposition unclear about what exactly they did wrong and what they can do to amend it. Time is running out for them: the elections are exactly a week away.

Musharraf’s opposition is fractured. In Pakistan’s political history, this story repeats itself. Pro-democracy and ideological alliances fracture because one party defects to eat the forbidden fruit. The Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) and the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) are PPP-less. The People’s Party will accommodate Musharraf as long as he removes corruption charges against Benazir and permits her to run for a third term.

The ARD and APDM are left with the PML-N, Tehreek-e Insaaf, and an MMA that’s falling apart as well. The JUI-F and JI divide is reaching a defining moment. Fazlur Rahman has clearly decided to block the MMA’s attempts to dissolve the NWFP Provincial Assembly and cause new parliamentary elections that would delay and precede presidential elections. Perhaps that explains his reasons for meeting U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson on Friday (under the pre-text for ‘valiantly’ telling her to leave Afghanistan). The Maulana definitely left the meeting with a reward– perhaps a kiss on his bearded cheek.

As for the lawyer’s movement, it may soon be losing its patriarch, and with yesterday’s ruling, has clearly lost control of its greatest instrument of change.

Musharraf is not completely in the clear, though he has averted what is probably his greatest challenge. Some suggest that yesterday’s ‘resolution’ was in the best interest of the country in that it avoided a catastrophic clash between pro and anti-Musharraf forces. Such is the power of threats. Pakistan’s elite must grow beyond temporary power sharing arrangements and actually come together on a real policy agenda for change and progress. If they fail to do so, they will find themselves and Pakistan’s remaining 160 million people underneath their toes captives on a Titanic sinking into the Arabian Sea. Rather than maintaining an ugly status quo, Pakistanis must decide where exactly they want to go.